United States

Lower than 66% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 63 a year ago

Median 3.21% · usual range -1.48% to 8.65%

The year before past crises: median 3.98%, from -2.91% before the Depression of 1920–21 to 13.1% before the Recession of 1937–38

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED GDPC1 2021–2026-04

Lower than 75% of years since 1890

↓Danger down from 29 a year ago

Median 5.5% · usual range 3.2% to 13.2%

The year before past crises: median 4.3%, from 1.4% before the Depression of 1920–21 to 16.9% before the Recession of 1937–38

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 13 crises: Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, Depression of 1920–21, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1932 (23.6%), 1933 (24.9%), 1934 (21.7%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1890–2020 · FRED UNRATE 2021–2026-09

Higher than 54% of years since 1891

↓Danger down from 68 a year ago

Median -0.3 pp · usual range -2.6 pp to +2.6 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.3 pp, from -3.2 pp before the Recession of 1937–38 to +0.9 pp before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 13 crises: Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1893 (+8.7 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1890–2020 · FRED UNRATE 2021–2026-09

Lower than 64% of years since 1920

↓Danger down from 69 a year ago

Median 3.23% · usual range -6.4% to 13.8%

The year before past crises: median 2.99%, from -0.79% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 18% before the Recession of 1937–38

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 9 crises: Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED INDPRO 1919–2026-08

Higher than 91% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 84 a year ago

Median 18.8% of GDP · usual range 10.9% of GDP to 21.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 19.5% of GDP, from 10.3% of GDP before the Recession of 1937–38 to 24.2% of GDP before the Panic of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2021–2024

Higher than 52% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 60 a year ago

Median 2.9% · usual range -0.65% to 7.35%

The year before past crises: median 3.87%, from -3.2% before the Depression of 1920–21 to 14% before the Panic of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2021–2024

Lower than 62% of years since 1971

↓Danger down from 71 a year ago

Median 6.12% · usual range -1.56% to 10.9%

The year before past crises: median 7.66%, from -2.59% before the Savings and loan crisis (1984) to 9.9% before the Volcker recessions (1980)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1971–2024

Higher than 61% of years since 1950

↓Danger down from 79 a year ago

Median 5.13 · usual range -7.55 to 20.6

The year before past crises: median 6.27, from 2.12 before the Black Monday (1987) to 25.6 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Dot-com bust (2000)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED BSCICP02USM460S 1950–2026-08

Higher than 77% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 38 a year ago

Median 1.75% · usual range -2.2% to 7.66%

The year before past crises: median 1.81%, from -1.72% before the Great Depression (1929) to 14.6% before the Depression of 1920–21

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (18%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CPIAUCSL 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2026-09

Lower than 69% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 23 a year ago

Median +0.08 pp · usual range -2.16 pp to +1.98 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.33 pp, from -3.15 pp before the Savings and loan crisis (1984) to +3.26 pp before the Volcker recessions (1980)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 15 crises: Panic of 1884, Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1874 (-10.8 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01USM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 52% of years since 1958

↓Danger down from 8 a year ago

Median 2.69% · usual range 1.55% to 6.84%

The year before past crises: median 3.06%, from 2.07% before the Dot-com bust (2000) to 9.75% before the Volcker recessions (1980)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 7 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED CPILFESL 1957–2026-09

Higher than 53% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 15 a year ago

Median 3.47% · usual range 1% to 7.68%

The year before past crises: median 4.97%, from 0.91% before the Recession of 1937–38 to 11.2% before the Volcker recessions (1980)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 15 crises: Panic of 1884

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01USM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 70% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 24 a year ago

Median +2.15 pp · usual range -2.87 pp to +6.48 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.84 pp, from -8.25 pp before the Depression of 1920–21 to +8.38 pp before the Panic of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 15 crises: Panic of 1893, War panic of 1914, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01USM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CPIAUCSL 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Lower than 58% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 46 a year ago

Median 6.12% · usual range 0.95% to 12.2%

The year before past crises: median 7.72%, from 3.87% before the War panic of 1914 to 15% before the Depression of 1920–21

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 15 crises: Panic of 1893

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · FRED M2SL 2021–2026-08

Lower than 91% of years since 1885

↓Danger down from 16 a year ago

Median +3.32 pp of GDP · usual range -8.99 pp of GDP to +8.68 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +3.15 pp of GDP, from -26.3 pp of GDP before the Recession of 1937–38 to +8.95 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 13 crises: Depression of 1920–21, Recession of 1937–38

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · FRED QUSPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 73% of years since 1945

↓Danger down from 77 a year ago

Median 32.7% of GDP · usual range 15.8% of GDP to 40.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 35.8% of GDP, from 31.6% of GDP before the Dot-com bust (2000) to 41.9% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1945–2020 · FRED QUSHAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 86% of years since 1889

→Danger about the same as a year ago (16)

Median -0.17 pp of GDP · usual range -6.17 pp of GDP to +6.35 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.54 pp of GDP, from -14.3 pp of GDP before the Recession of 1937–38 to +5.57 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 13 crises: Depression of 1920–21, Recession of 1937–38

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · FRED QUSPAM770A 2021–2025

Higher than 91% of years since 1880

→Danger about the same as a year ago (93)

Median 43.6% of GDP · usual range 23% of GDP to 60% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 48.8% of GDP, from 20.6% of GDP before the Panic of 1884 to 63% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 14 crises: Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · FRED QUSPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 88% of years since 1945

↓Danger down from 90 a year ago

Median 18.6% of GDP · usual range 10.4% of GDP to 24.1% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 19.6% of GDP, from 18.6% of GDP before the Dot-com bust (2000) to 24.9% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1945–2020 · FRED QUSNAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 52% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 8.8 % of assets · usual range 4.35 % of assets to 21 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 9.32 % of assets, from 3.9 % of assets before the Volcker recessions (1980) to 30.6 % of assets before the Panic of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 68% of years since 2009

↓Danger down from 38 a year ago

Median 1.13 % of loans · usual range 0.83 % of loans to 4.02 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 0.86 % of loans, from 0.86 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 0.86 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 1 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2009–2025

Lower than 78% of years since 1870

Median 75.9% · usual range 37.3% to 89.4%

The year before past crises: median 75.7%, from 35.1% before the Recession of 1937–38 to 131% before the Panic of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 15 crises: Recession of 1937–38

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020

Lower than 51% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 70 a year ago

Median 0.3% · usual range -14.5% to 37.5%

The year before past crises: median 0.3%, from -7.97% before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 7.98% before the Dot-com bust (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2007)

Sources: FRED DRTSCILM 1991–2026-07

Lower than 76% of years since 2005

→Danger about the same as a year ago (24)

Median 11.8 % of income · usual range 10.6 % of income to 15.2 % of income

The year before past crises: median 13.4 % of income, from 11.6 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 15.2 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: FRED TDSP 2005–2026-04

Lower than 96% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 7 a year ago

Median 14.9 % of income · usual range 14.4 % of income to 17.5 % of income

The year before past crises: median 16.7 % of income, from 14.8 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 17.5 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 98% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (97)

Median 38.2% of GDP · usual range 5.18% of GDP to 100% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 32.3% of GDP, from 3.02% of GDP before the War panic of 1914 to 107% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 91% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 93 a year ago

Median -0.51% of GDP · usual range -6.2% of GDP to 0.88% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -1.55% of GDP, from -16.9% of GDP before the Depression of 1920–21 to 1.3% of GDP before the Dot-com bust (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1943 (-26.9% of GDP), 1944 (-21.2% of GDP), 1945 (-20.9% of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 79% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 78 a year ago

Median -0.56 pp of GDP · usual range -10.7 pp of GDP to +24.2 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.57 pp of GDP, from -11.7 pp of GDP before the Panic of 1884 to +29 pp of GDP before the Depression of 1920–21

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 14 crises: Panic of 1884, Great Depression (1929)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1946 (+81.1 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 53% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (47)

Median -0.93 pp · usual range -8.76 pp to +4.91 pp

The year before past crises: median -1.3 pp, from -11.9 pp before the Recession of 1937–38 to +3.45 pp before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 15 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1932 (+26.3 pp), 1942 (-27.5 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01USM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CPIAUCSL 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025 · FRED GDPC1 2021–2025

Higher than 66% of years since 1972

Median 10.1 % of spending · usual range 7.19 % of spending to 15.3 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 9.86 % of spending, from 6.51 % of spending before the Oil shock and stagflation (1973) to 15.2 % of spending before the Black Monday (1987)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1972–2023

Higher than 72% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 62 a year ago

Median 3.87% · usual range 2.18% to 7.58%

The year before past crises: median 4.79%, from 2.14% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 11.1% before the Savings and loan crisis (1984)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 15 crises: Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1981 (13.9%), 1982 (13%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01USM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 84% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 82 a year ago

Median -0.01 pp · usual range -0.56 pp to +0.58 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.14 pp, from -2.94 pp before the Black Monday (1987) to +1.03 pp before the Volcker recessions (1980)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1980 (+2.02 pp), 1981 (+2.45 pp), 1986 (-2.94 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01USM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 56% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 66 a year ago

Median +0.78 pp · usual range -1.68 pp to +2.17 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.02 pp, from -2.89 pp before the Panic of 1907 to +2.02 pp before the Savings and loan crisis (1984)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 15 crises: War panic of 1914, Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Savings and loan crisis (1984)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1873 (-8.76 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01USM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED IR3TIB01USM156N 2021–2025

Lower than 67% of years since 1919

↓Danger down from 36 a year ago

Median +1.98 pp · usual range +1.06 pp to +3.13 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.16 pp, from +1.25 pp before the Volcker recessions (1980) to +2.71 pp before the Black Monday (1987)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 10 crises: Volcker recessions (1980)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 72% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED BAA 1919–2026-08 · JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01USM156N 2021–2025

Lower than 68% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (32)

Median +2.62 pp · usual range -1.1 pp to +6.71 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.94 pp, from -9.64 pp before the Depression of 1920–21 to +6.83 pp before the Savings and loan crisis (1984)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 15 crises: Depression of 1920–21, Recession of 1937–38, Volcker recessions (1980), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01USM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CPIAUCSL 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Lower than 98% of years since 1919

↓Danger down from 13 a year ago

Median +0.94 pp · usual range +0.6 pp to +1.98 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.02 pp, from +0.83 pp before the Dot-com bust (2000) to +1.76 pp before the Depression of 1920–21

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 10 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 78% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1932 (+4.2 pp)

Sources: FRED BAA 1919–2026-09 · FRED AAA 1919–2025

Lower than 78% of years since 1934

→Danger about the same as a year ago (22)

Median +0.34 pp · usual range -0.02 pp to +1.08 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.42 pp, from +0.1 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +1.12 pp before the Volcker recessions (1980)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 8 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 75% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01USM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED TB3MS 1934–2025

Higher than 73% of years since 1873

↓Danger down from 44 a year ago

Median 6.19% · usual range -16.6% to 26.4%

The year before past crises: median 6.47%, from -15.7% before the War panic of 1914 to 34.9% before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 14 crises: Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01USM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CPIAUCSL 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 86% of years since 1880

↑Danger up from 73 a year ago

Median 12.4% · usual range -24.1% to 60.2%

The year before past crises: median 16.3%, from -39% before the Depression of 1920–21 to 130% before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 14 crises: Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01USM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CPIAUCSL 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Lower than 80% of years since 1957

↓Danger down from 52 a year ago

Median 10.2% · usual range 5.58% to 18%

The year before past crises: median 8.77%, from 6.96% before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 10.2% before the Dot-com bust (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 7 crises: Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1872–2020 · FRED SPASTT01USM661N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 81% of years since 1872

→Danger about the same as a year ago (19)

Median -7.04% · usual range -38.4% to 0%

The year before past crises: median 0%, from -45.1% before the Depression of 1920–21 to 0% before the Panic of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01USM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CPIAUCSL 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1975

→Danger about the same as a year ago (97)

Median 105% of GDP · usual range 41.8% of GDP to 164% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 98.5% of GDP, from 37.8% of GDP before the Volcker recessions (1980) to 158% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1975–2025

Lower than 76% of years since 1891

↑Danger up from 16 a year ago

Median 0.88% · usual range -7.55% to 7.74%

The year before past crises: median 3.34%, from -2.71% before the Depression of 1920–21 to 18.1% before the Panic of 1907

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 13 crises: Panic of 1893, War panic of 1914, Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1907 (-30.2%), 1908 (42.6%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1890–2020 · FRED QUSR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Higher than 68% of years since 1898

↓Danger down from 83 a year ago

Median 3.83% · usual range -11.4% to 20.7%

The year before past crises: median 9.42%, from -19.2% before the Depression of 1920–21 to 28.5% before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 12 crises: Depression of 1920–21, Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1890–2020 · FRED QUSR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Lower than 59% of years since 1960

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median 2.16% · usual range -17.2% to 17.7%

The year before past crises: median 3.58%, from -14.2% before the Volcker recessions (1980) to 61.3% before the Savings and loan crisis (1984)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED HOUST 1959–2026-08

Lower than 95% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (96)

Median -0.12% of GDP · usual range -3.18% of GDP to 1.36% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.66% of GDP, from -5.91% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 4.64% of GDP before the Depression of 1920–21

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2021–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 2002

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 6.02% · usual range -11.4% to 12.7%

The year before past crises: median 3.3%, from -4.9% before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 11.5% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2007)

Sources: FRED RBUSBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 69% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 58 a year ago

Median 2.04 months of imports · usual range 1.08 months of imports to 4 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 3.14 months of imports, from 0.93 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 6.1 months of imports before the Volcker recessions (1980)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1970–2025

Lower than 56% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 60 a year ago

Median 1.06% of GDP · usual range 0.15% of GDP to 2.32% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 0.68% of GDP, from 0.1% of GDP before the Oil shock and stagflation (1973) to 3.24% of GDP before the Dot-com bust (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 7 crises: Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (98)

Median 1.42 of 4 · usual range 1.18 of 4 to 2.65 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.42 of 4, from 1.18 of 4 before the Volcker recessions (1980) to 3.48 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 85 a year ago

Median 2.42 of 4 · usual range 2.07 of 4 to 3.65 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.42 of 4, from 1.81 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929) to 3.9 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 96% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 69 a year ago

Median 1.68 of 4 · usual range 1.03 of 4 to 2.25 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.55 of 4, from 1 of 4 before the Savings and loan crisis (1984) to 2.59 of 4 before the Depression of 1920–21

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 92% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (92)

Median 0.59 of 4 · usual range 0.08 of 4 to 1.04 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.42 of 4, from 0.08 of 4 before the Volcker recessions (1980) to 1.02 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (14), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 55% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (45)

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Panic of 1893 to 0.16 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 100% of years since 1855

↑Danger up from 42 a year ago

Median +0.7 points · usual range -0.6 points to +5.7 points

The year before past crises: median +0.2 points, from -10.8 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +7.1 points before the Volcker recessions (1980)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1952

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 0.12 · usual range 0.04 to 0.29

The year before past crises: median 0.06, from 0.02 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1973) to 0.54 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 32% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2025 (1.61)

Sources: FRED WUIUSA 1952–2026-04

Lower than 100% of years since 1960

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 88.1 · usual range 66.1 to 97.9

The year before past crises: median 91.8, from 66 before the Volcker recessions (1980) to 106 before the Dot-com bust (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 30% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED UMCSENT 1960–2026-08

Lower than 53% of years since 1890

↑Danger up from 40 a year ago

Median 8.21% · usual range 3.94% to 16.4%

The year before past crises: median 7.86%, from 2.48% before the Great Depression (1929) to 18.4% before the Recession of 1937–38

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED UNRATE 2021–2026-09 · FRED CPIAUCSL 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 90% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (90)

Median 16.4% · usual range 11.1% to 20.7%

The year before past crises: median 18.5%, from 10.9% before the Volcker recessions (1980) to 22.3% before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 11 crises: War panic of 1914, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Higher than 74% of years since 1850

Median 0.31 of 4 · usual range 0.31 of 4 to 0.69 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.31 of 4, from 0.26 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 0.86 of 4 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1870

Median 16.1% of GDP · usual range 2.07% of GDP to 21.8% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 17.7% of GDP, from 1.81% of GDP before the War panic of 1914 to 23.4% of GDP before the Depression of 1920–21

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF Public Finances in Modern History 2021–2024

Higher than 60% of years since 1850

Median 0.38 of 4 · usual range 0.02 of 4 to 0.66 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.31 of 4, from 0.03 of 4 before the Dot-com bust (2000) to 0.76 of 4 before the Panic of 1893

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1850

Median 0.14 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.31 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.17 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Panic of 1893 to 0.71 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 13 crises: Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Off the chart: 1861 (1.83 of 4), 1862 (1.83 of 4), 1863 (1.83 of 4), 1864 (1.83 of 4), 1865 (1.83 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 73% of years since 1850

↑Danger up from 1 a year ago

Median 6.9 of 100 · usual range 5.45 of 100 to 14.1 of 100

The year before past crises: median 7.8 of 100, from 5.4 of 100 before the Volcker recessions (1980) to 14.1 of 100 before the Panic of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 15 crises: Volcker recessions (1980), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (14), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 92% of years since 1855

↑Danger up from 5 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -1.1 points to +1.9 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -4.1 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +2.4 points before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2017 (-4.6 points), 2018 (-3.9 points), 2019 (-4.1 points), 2020 (-4.2 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 100% of years since 1855

↑Danger up from 26 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -2 points to +4.5 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -7.2 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +3.4 points before the Oil shock and stagflation (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1947 (+10.5 points), 1948 (+9.1 points), 1949 (+9.1 points), 1950 (+7.9 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 91% of years since 1850

↑Danger up from 19 a year ago

Median 0.39 of 4 · usual range 0.09 of 4 to 0.55 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.39 of 4, from 0.09 of 4 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1973) to 0.55 of 4 before the Depression of 1920–21

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: Panic of 1873, Panic of 1884, Panic of 1893, Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Depression of 1920–21, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (14), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1973) to 0 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Lower than 59% of years since 1989

→Danger about the same as a year ago (41)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 3.6

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Dot-com bust (2000) to 5 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007)

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 95% of years since 1985

↓Danger down from 98 a year ago

Median 117 · usual range 79.7 to 175

The year before past crises: median 97.6, from 67.1 before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 189 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2025 (387)

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1985–2026-07

Higher than 79% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 42 a year ago

Median 2.89 % of articles · usual range 1.48 % of articles to 5.47 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 2.9 % of articles, from 1.23 % of articles before the Great Depression (1929) to 5.63 % of articles before the Depression of 1920–21

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (9.01 % of articles), 1917 (9.78 % of articles), 1918 (11.1 % of articles), 1942 (10.4 % of articles), 1943 (11.8 % of articles), 1944 (12.9 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 79% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 13 a year ago

Median 11.6% · usual range 8.73% to 16%

The year before past crises: median 9.89%, from 8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 10.4% before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 18.1 per 100 workers · usual range 15.6 per 100 workers to 23.5 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 17.7 per 100 workers, from 15.8 per 100 workers before the Oil shock and stagflation (1973) to 23.9 per 100 workers before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 0%, from -46.2% before the Black Monday (1987) to 50.9% before the Volcker recessions (1980)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 7 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 0.5%, from -7.16% before the Black Monday (1987) to 12.8% before the Savings and loan crisis (1984)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Black Monday (1987), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 15.4, from 12.8 before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 24.5 before the Dot-com bust (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median 1.24%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 16.8% before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Dot-com bust (2000)

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median -3.06%, from -12.2% before the Dot-com bust (2000) to 7.98% before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Dot-com bust (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 71.7, from 63.3 before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 86.2, from 37.2 before the Great Depression (1929) to 167 before the Depression of 1920–21

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Recession of 1937–38, Oil shock and stagflation (1973), Volcker recessions (1980), Savings and loan crisis (1984), Black Monday (1987), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 32% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09