United Kingdom

Lower than 70% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 66 a year ago

Median 2.27% · usual range -1.47% to 4.76%

The year before past crises: median 1.94%, from -9.89% before the Post-war slump (1920) to 8.54% before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCGBQ 2021–2026-04

Higher than 53% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 49 a year ago

Median 4.64% · usual range 1.35% to 10.3%

The year before past crises: median 4%, from 1.3% before the Sterling devaluation of 1949 to 11.2% before the Sterling leaves gold (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTGBM156S 2021–2026-05

Higher than 62% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 70 a year ago

Median -0.06 pp · usual range -1.7 pp to +1.4 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.3 pp, from -2.8 pp before the Baring crisis (1890) to +3.9 pp before the Sterling leaves gold (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 17 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1921 (+9.3 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTGBM156S 2021–2026-05

Lower than 66% of years since 1949

↓Danger down from 73 a year ago

Median 1.88% · usual range -2.66% to 5.45%

The year before past crises: median 1.53%, from -5.42% before the IMF crisis (1976) to 4.46% before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 9 crises: Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: ONS consumer prices 1948–2026-07

Higher than 75% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 37 a year ago

Median 10.8% of GDP · usual range 6.68% of GDP to 21.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 17.7% of GDP, from 6.46% of GDP before the Baring crisis (1890) to 26.3% of GDP before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 67% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 86 a year ago

Median 1.94% · usual range -0.57% to 4.32%

The year before past crises: median 1.97%, from -1.64% before the Black Wednesday (1992) to 14.4% before the Post-war slump (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2021–2025

Lower than 63% of years since 1971

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median 3.75% · usual range -0.42% to 9.36%

The year before past crises: median 2.38%, from -2.96% before the IMF crisis (1976) to 11.7% before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Global financial crisis (2007), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1971–2025

Lower than 58% of years since 1978

↓Danger down from 77 a year ago

Median -5.88 · usual range -24.3 to 6.17

The year before past crises: median -4.82, from -29.8 before the Black Wednesday (1992) to 12.4 before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Global financial crisis (2007), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED BSCICP02GBM460S 1978–2026-08

Higher than 61% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 38 a year ago

Median 2.32% · usual range -1.4% to 9.83%

The year before past crises: median 3.1%, from -2.8% before the Sterling leaves gold (1931) to 22.7% before the IMF crisis (1976)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 17 crises: Baring crisis (1890), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1917 (25.2%), 1918 (22%), 1975 (22.7%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ONS consumer prices 2021–2026-08

Lower than 79% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (22)

Median 0 pp · usual range -1.45 pp to +1.25 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.06 pp, from -3.27 pp before the Black Wednesday (1992) to +4.49 pp before the Early 1980s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 17 crises: Sterling leaves gold (1931), IMF crisis (1976), Black Wednesday (1992)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01GBM156N 2021–2026-01

Higher than 73% of years since 1989

↓Danger down from 62 a year ago

Median 1.88% · usual range 1.08% to 5.46%

The year before past crises: median 2.4%, from 1.33% before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 7.6% before the Black Wednesday (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 20% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: ONS consumer prices 1988–2026-08

Higher than 51% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 24 a year ago

Median 3.41% · usual range 0.53% to 9.27%

The year before past crises: median 4.15%, from -0.2% before the Gilt crisis (2022) to 13.3% before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 17 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01GBM156N 2021–2026-01

Lower than 64% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 15 a year ago

Median +1.82 pp · usual range -5.46 pp to +5.3 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.63 pp, from -12.5 pp before the IMF crisis (1976) to +8.04 pp before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 17 crises: Baring crisis (1890), Sterling devaluation of 1967, Early 1980s recession, Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01GBM156N 2021–2026-01 · ONS consumer prices 2021–2025

Lower than 73% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 92 a year ago

Median 4.43% · usual range -0.06% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 6.51%, from -5.38% before the City of Glasgow Bank (1878) to 21.7% before the Secondary banking crisis (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 17 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Black Wednesday (1992), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 2021–2024

Lower than 99% of years since 1885

↓Danger down from 10 a year ago

Median +1.75 pp of GDP · usual range -8.96 pp of GDP to +18.1 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +4.65 pp of GDP, from -5.97 pp of GDP before the Post-war slump (1920) to +25.6 pp of GDP before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 16 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2014 (-31.6 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · FRED QGBPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 80% of years since 1880

↓Danger down from 83 a year ago

Median 12.6% of GDP · usual range 3.11% of GDP to 66.8% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 16.6% of GDP, from 1.45% of GDP before the Post-war slump (1920) to 78.8% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 16 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · FRED QGBHAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 85% of years since 1889

→Danger about the same as a year ago (16)

Median +0.21 pp of GDP · usual range -7.98 pp of GDP to +5.38 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +2 pp of GDP, from -6.56 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +11.9 pp of GDP before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 16 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · FRED QGBPAM770A 2021–2025

Higher than 75% of years since 1880

↓Danger down from 79 a year ago

Median 28.3% of GDP · usual range 20.1% of GDP to 86.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 33% of GDP, from 18.3% of GDP before the Convertibility crisis (1947) to 108% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 16 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · FRED QGBPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 65% of years since 1880

↓Danger down from 38 a year ago

Median 18.6% of GDP · usual range 11.1% of GDP to 24.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 19.4% of GDP, from 9.41% of GDP before the Convertibility crisis (1947) to 29% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 16 crises: Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · FRED QGBNAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 63% of years since 1880

↑Danger up from 57 a year ago

Median 6.78 % of assets · usual range 4.8 % of assets to 17 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 6.39 % of assets, from 3.95 % of assets before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 18.9 % of assets before the Baring crisis (1890)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 16 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 92% of years since 2005

↓Danger down from 40 a year ago

Median 1.1 % of loans · usual range 0.96 % of loans to 3.66 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 1 % of loans, from 0.97 % of loans before the Gilt crisis (2022) to 1.02 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2005–2025

Higher than 68% of years since 1880

Median 70.5% · usual range 30.5% to 114%

The year before past crises: median 75.2%, from 19% before the Convertibility crisis (1947) to 130% before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020

Higher than 89% of years since 2008

↑Danger up from 22 a year ago

Median -3.84% · usual range -14.8% to 0.99%

The year before past crises: median 0.21%, from -3.17% before the Gilt crisis (2022) to 3.58% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Gilt crisis (2022)

Off the chart: 2008 (33.5%)

Sources: Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey 2008–2026-07

Lower than 100% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 4 a year ago

Median 9.57 % of income · usual range 8.98 % of income to 12 % of income

The year before past crises: median 9.3 % of income, from 9.13 % of income before the Gilt crisis (2022) to 12.3 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Lower than 100% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 4 a year ago

Median 15.4 % of income · usual range 13.6 % of income to 18.1 % of income

The year before past crises: median 14.2 % of income, from 13.9 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 18.4 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 83% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 69% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (68)

Median 65.5% of GDP · usual range 35.5% of GDP to 182% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 65.8% of GDP, from 27.9% of GDP before the War panic of 1914 to 270% of GDP before the Convertibility crisis (1947)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 86% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (88)

Median 0.42% of GDP · usual range -7.4% of GDP to 7.2% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.15% of GDP, from -7.57% of GDP before the Gilt crisis (2022) to 10.7% of GDP before the Sterling devaluation of 1949

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (-35.7% of GDP), 1916 (-44.7% of GDP), 1917 (-43.6% of GDP), 1918 (-26.7% of GDP), 1940 (-28.1% of GDP), 1942 (-28.8% of GDP), 1943 (-26.6% of GDP), 1944 (-28.3% of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2021–2025

Higher than 58% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 80 a year ago

Median -4.52 pp of GDP · usual range -31.5 pp of GDP to +39.2 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median -5.98 pp of GDP, from -27.1 pp of GDP before the Secondary banking crisis (1973) to +136 pp of GDP before the Convertibility crisis (1947)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 17 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (+91.2 pp of GDP), 1919 (+116 pp of GDP), 1920 (+98.5 pp of GDP), 1921 (+92.8 pp of GDP), 1945 (+114 pp of GDP), 1946 (+136 pp of GDP), 1947 (+111 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Higher than 63% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 49 a year ago

Median +0.01 pp · usual range -4.57 pp to +4.69 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.29 pp, from -9.97 pp before the Gilt crisis (2022) to +8.01 pp before the Sterling leaves gold (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 17 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1917 (-21.3 pp), 1918 (-19.8 pp), 1921 (+21.8 pp), 1940 (-23.5 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01GBM156N 2021–2026-08 · ONS consumer prices 2021–2025 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCGBQ 2021–2025

Higher than 51% of years since 1972

Median 7.76 % of spending · usual range 5.4 % of spending to 10.6 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 7.99 % of spending, from 5.4 % of spending before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 10.9 % of spending before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1972–2023

Higher than 75% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 72 a year ago

Median 3.83% · usual range 2.61% to 9.39%

The year before past crises: median 4.46%, from 1.15% before the Gilt crisis (2022) to 14.6% before the IMF crisis (1976)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (15.2%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01GBM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 84% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 94 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -0.57 pp to +0.46 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.01 pp, from -0.89 pp before the Black Wednesday (1992) to +0.45 pp before the Sterling devaluation of 1949

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1969 (+1.48 pp), 1973 (+1.71 pp), 1974 (+4.26 pp), 1977 (-2.04 pp), 1990 (+1.62 pp), 1998 (-1.59 pp), 2022 (+1.66 pp), 2023 (+1.61 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01GBM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 65% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 47 a year ago

Median +0.69 pp · usual range -0.89 pp to +2.78 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.81 pp, from -4.02 pp before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990) to +4.42 pp before the IMF crisis (1976)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 17 crises: Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01GBM156N 2021–2026-01 · FRED IR3TIB01GBM156N 2021–2025

Lower than 51% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 34 a year ago

Median +2.35 pp · usual range -3.09 pp to +5.55 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.91 pp, from -8.1 pp before the IMF crisis (1976) to +7.26 pp before the Sterling leaves gold (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 17 crises: Baring crisis (1890), Post-war slump (1920), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1917 (-20.6 pp), 1918 (-17.6 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01GBM156N 2021–2026-08 · ONS consumer prices 2021–2025

Higher than 84% of years since 1872

↓Danger down from 34 a year ago

Median 2.06% · usual range -16.3% to 19.3%

The year before past crises: median 5.35%, from -14.3% before the Sterling devaluation of 1949 to 92.8% before the IMF crisis (1976)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 17 crises: IMF crisis (1976), Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1975 (92.8%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01GBM661N 2021–2026-08 · ONS consumer prices 2021–2025

Higher than 69% of years since 1879

↑Danger up from 46 a year ago

Median 9.29% · usual range -28.9% to 46.5%

The year before past crises: median 3.59%, from -42.9% before the Post-war slump (1920) to 75.9% before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 16 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01GBM661N 2021–2026-08 · ONS consumer prices 2021–2025

Lower than 88% of years since 1958

↓Danger down from 21 a year ago

Median 11.3% · usual range 6.22% to 18.4%

The year before past crises: median 13.1%, from 4.85% before the Gilt crisis (2022) to 38.6% before the IMF crisis (1976)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 9 crises: Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1975 (38.6%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · FRED SPASTT01GBM661N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 81% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (19)

Median -5.1% · usual range -38.3% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -10.5%, from -53.3% before the IMF crisis (1976) to 0% before the City of Glasgow Bank (1878)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), Great Depression (1929), Convertibility crisis (1947), Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01GBM661N 2021–2026-08 · ONS consumer prices 2021–2025

Lower than 54% of years since 1975

Median 99.4% of GDP · usual range 35.8% of GDP to 138% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 87.2% of GDP, from 6.86% of GDP before the Early 1980s recession to 139% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1975–2022

Lower than 66% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 2 a year ago

Median 0.92% · usual range -9.54% to 13.3%

The year before past crises: median -0.66%, from -13.9% before the IMF crisis (1976) to 24.4% before the Secondary banking crisis (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 14 crises: Sterling leaves gold (1931), Sterling devaluation of 1967, Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1899–2020 · FRED QGBR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Lower than 65% of years since 1907

↓Danger down from 38 a year ago

Median 5.02% · usual range -13% to 42.3%

The year before past crises: median 15.8%, from -23.7% before the Post-war slump (1920) to 66.8% before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 13 crises: War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 80% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1899–2020 · FRED QGBR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Lower than 91% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (90)

Median 0.28% of GDP · usual range -3.74% of GDP to 5.97% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.54% of GDP, from -4% of GDP before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990) to 9.77% of GDP before the War panic of 1914

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 16 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2021–2025

Lower than 70% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 17 a year ago

Median 0.05% · usual range -8.52% to 12.5%

The year before past crises: median 0.05%, from -17.5% before the Sterling devaluation of 1949 to 34.4% before the Convertibility crisis (1947)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 17 crises: Sterling devaluation of 1949, Early 1980s recession, Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1920 (20.8%), 1932 (29.3%), 1946 (34.4%), 1949 (27.3%), 1981 (25%), 1984 (25.4%), 1985 (-19.9%), 1987 (-21.2%), 1992 (23.7%), 2008 (37.4%), 2016 (20.5%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CCUSMA02GBM618N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 100% of years since 2002

→Danger about the same as a year ago (100)

Median -1.19% · usual range -15.2% to 5.17%

The year before past crises: median -0.52%, from -3.78% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 0.07% before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Sources: FRED RBGBBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 56% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 67 a year ago

Median 1.27 months of imports · usual range 0.85 months of imports to 2.06 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 1.59 months of imports, from 0.6 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 2.33 months of imports before the Early 1980s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Secondary banking crisis (1973), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1970–2025

Lower than 87% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 97 a year ago

Median 1.82% of GDP · usual range 0.7% of GDP to 7.12% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.75% of GDP, from 0.69% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 7.49% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2016 (12% of GDP)

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Higher than 94% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (94)

Median 1.58 of 4 · usual range 1.58 of 4 to 1.58 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.58 of 4, from 1.58 of 4 before the War panic of 1914 to 2.33 of 4 before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 15 crises: War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 3.3 of 4 · usual range 3.23 of 4 to 3.37 of 4

The year before past crises: median 3.3 of 4, from 2.73 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 3.81 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1991 (3.28 of 4), 1992 (3.28 of 4), 1993 (3.28 of 4), 1994 (3.28 of 4), 1995 (3.28 of 4), 1996 (3.28 of 4), 1997 (3.28 of 4), 1998 (3.28 of 4), 1999 (3.28 of 4), 2000 (3.28 of 4), 2001 (3.28 of 4), 2002 (3.28 of 4), 2004 (2.73 of 4), 2005 (2.73 of 4), 2006 (2.73 of 4), 2007 (2.73 of 4), 2008 (2.73 of 4), 2009 (2.73 of 4), 2010 (2.73 of 4), 2011 (2.73 of 4), 2012 (2.73 of 4), 2013 (2.73 of 4), 2014 (2.73 of 4), 2015 (3.18 of 4), 2020 (3.14 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 82% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 11 a year ago

Median 0.89 of 4 · usual range 0.65 of 4 to 2.1 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.89 of 4, from 0.34 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 2.1 of 4 before the Secondary banking crisis (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 15 crises: Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 57% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (43)

Median 0.99 of 4 · usual range 0.82 of 4 to 1.56 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.16 of 4, from 0.82 of 4 before the City of Glasgow Bank (1878) to 1.56 of 4 before the Secondary banking crisis (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (14), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 70% of years since 1850

↓Danger down from 62 a year ago

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.33 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.29 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the City of Glasgow Bank (1878) to 0.58 of 4 before the War panic of 1914

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967

Before this country's past crises (14), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 100% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median +0.7 points · usual range -1.4 points to +3.4 points

The year before past crises: median +1 points, from -0.9 points before the Early 1980s recession to +17.9 points before the Post-war slump (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 17 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (14), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1919 (+17.9 points), 1920 (+18.9 points), 1921 (+19.1 points), 1922 (+19.3 points), 1923 (+20.4 points), 1946 (+9.5 points), 1947 (+9.8 points), 1948 (+9.8 points), 1949 (+9.8 points), 1950 (+10.3 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 1953

↑Danger up from 97 a year ago

Median 0.17 · usual range 0.06 to 0.47

The year before past crises: median 0.16, from 0.05 before the Sterling devaluation of 1967 to 1.18 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUIGBR 1953–2026-04

Higher than 52% of years since 1974

↓Danger down from 56 a year ago

Median -9.76 · usual range -21.6 to -0.43

The year before past crises: median -9.86, from -25 before the IMF crisis (1976) to -4.08 before the Early 1980s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 7 crises: Early 1980s recession, Global financial crisis (2007), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED CSCICP02GBM460S 1974–2026-08

Higher than 57% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (58)

Median 6.81% · usual range 3.1% to 15.7%

The year before past crises: median 7.68%, from 1.7% before the War panic of 1914 to 26.7% before the IMF crisis (1976)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1967, COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTGBM156S 2021–2026-05 · ONS consumer prices 2021–2025

Higher than 58% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (58)

Median 12.8% · usual range 7.4% to 26.6%

The year before past crises: median 12.7%, from 6.64% before the Early 1980s recession to 27.5% before the War panic of 1914

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Lower than 77% of years since 1850

Median 0.92 of 4 · usual range 0.74 of 4 to 1.7 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.92 of 4, from 0.7 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.7 of 4 before the Convertibility crisis (1947)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 17 crises: Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Off the chart: 1946 (1.7 of 4), 1947 (1.7 of 4), 1948 (1.7 of 4), 1949 (1.7 of 4), 1950 (1.7 of 4), 1951 (1.7 of 4), 1952 (1.7 of 4), 1953 (1.7 of 4), 1954 (1.7 of 4), 1955 (1.7 of 4), 1956 (1.7 of 4), 1957 (1.7 of 4), 1958 (1.7 of 4), 1959 (1.7 of 4), 1960 (1.7 of 4), 1961 (1.7 of 4), 1962 (1.7 of 4), 1963 (1.7 of 4), 1964 (1.7 of 4), 1965 (1.7 of 4), 1966 (1.7 of 4), 1967 (1.7 of 4), 1968 (1.7 of 4), 1969 (1.7 of 4), 1970 (1.7 of 4), 1971 (1.7 of 4), 1972 (1.7 of 4), 1973 (1.7 of 4), 1974 (1.7 of 4), 1975 (1.7 of 4), 1976 (1.7 of 4), 1977 (1.7 of 4), 1978 (1.7 of 4), 1979 (1.7 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 88% of years since 1870

Median 26% of GDP · usual range 6.82% of GDP to 42.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 28.6% of GDP, from 6.51% of GDP before the Baring crisis (1890) to 44% of GDP before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF Public Finances in Modern History 2021–2024

Lower than 68% of years since 1850

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.24 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.19 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the City of Glasgow Bank (1878) to 0.31 of 4 before the Secondary banking crisis (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1850

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.24 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the City of Glasgow Bank (1878) to 0.31 of 4 before the Secondary banking crisis (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 17 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 86% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (87)

Median 2.7 of 100 · usual range 1.7 of 100 to 17.5 of 100

The year before past crises: median 2.7 of 100, from 1.7 of 100 before the Convertibility crisis (1947) to 5.3 of 100 before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 16 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (14), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1850 (24.5 of 100), 1851 (17.5 of 100), 1852 (17.5 of 100), 1853 (17.5 of 100), 1854 (17.5 of 100), 1855 (17.5 of 100), 1856 (17.5 of 100), 1857 (17.5 of 100), 1858 (17.5 of 100), 1859 (17.5 of 100), 1860 (17.5 of 100), 1861 (17.5 of 100), 1862 (17.5 of 100), 1863 (17.5 of 100), 1864 (17.5 of 100), 1865 (17.5 of 100), 1866 (17.5 of 100), 1867 (17.5 of 100), 1868 (17.5 of 100)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 97% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 0 points · usual range -0.3 points to +0.9 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -1.5 points before the Gilt crisis (2022) to +0.9 points before the Convertibility crisis (1947)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 16 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (14), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1855 (+4.4 points), 1870 (+6 points), 1871 (+6 points), 1872 (+6 points), 1873 (+6 points), 1874 (+6 points), 1883 (+1.7 points), 1884 (+1.7 points), 1885 (+1.7 points), 1886 (+1.7 points), 1887 (+1.7 points), 2021 (-1.5 points), 2022 (-1.8 points), 2023 (-2.4 points), 2024 (-1.7 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 100% of years since 1855

↑Danger up from 93 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -2.2 points to +2.4 points

The year before past crises: median +0.4 points, from -1.1 points before the Early 1980s recession to +11.2 points before the Sterling devaluation of 1949

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 17 of 17 crises: City of Glasgow Bank (1878), Baring crisis (1890), War panic of 1914, Post-war slump (1920), Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (14), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1919 (+4.4 points), 1920 (+6.5 points), 1921 (+6.5 points), 1922 (+6.5 points), 1923 (+6.5 points), 1946 (+10.9 points), 1947 (+11.2 points), 1948 (+11.2 points), 1949 (+11.2 points), 1950 (+11.2 points), 1990 (+2.4 points), 1991 (+2.4 points), 1992 (+2.4 points), 1993 (+2.4 points), 1994 (+2.4 points), 1999 (+2.7 points), 2000 (+3.8 points), 2001 (+4.5 points), 2002 (+4.5 points), 2003 (+4.5 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 55% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (44)

Median 0.89 of 4 · usual range 0.09 of 4 to 1.38 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.26 of 4, from 0.09 of 4 before the Sterling devaluation of 1967 to 1.18 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 17 crises: Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (14), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Sterling devaluation of 1967 to 0 before the Sterling devaluation of 1967

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Lower than 59% of years since 1989

→Danger about the same as a year ago (41)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 29.9

The year before past crises: median 3, from 0 before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 35 before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2007), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 85% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 72% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 97 a year ago

Median 185 · usual range 69.4 to 440

The year before past crises: median 185, from 74.2 before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 431 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2007), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1997–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 60 a year ago

Median 0.62 % of articles · usual range 0.41 % of articles to 1.97 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.58 % of articles, from 0.36 % of articles before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990) to 2.08 % of articles before the Post-war slump (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 15 crises: War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1914 (3.75 % of articles), 1915 (5.41 % of articles), 1916 (4.75 % of articles), 1917 (4.95 % of articles), 1918 (5.91 % of articles), 1939 (3.76 % of articles), 1940 (4.56 % of articles), 1941 (5.01 % of articles), 1942 (4.55 % of articles), 1943 (6.14 % of articles), 1944 (6.18 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Higher than 61% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 56 a year ago

Median 13.9% · usual range 10.7% to 20%

The year before past crises: median 13.4%, from 10.7% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14.2% before the Global financial crisis (2007)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 10% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 24.3 per 100 workers · usual range 19.5 per 100 workers to 28.9 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 24.1 per 100 workers, from 19.3 per 100 workers before the Sterling devaluation of 1967 to 29.5 per 100 workers before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 12.3%, from -12.3% before the Black Wednesday (1992) to 73.3% before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 10 crises: Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 3.36%, from -3.92% before the Gilt crisis (2022) to 9.82% before the Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Global financial crisis (2007), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 16.9, from 12.8 before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 19.7 before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median 16.8%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 52.6% before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 7.98%, from -3.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 27% before the Gilt crisis (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 75% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 206, from 63.3 before the Global financial crisis (2007) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 83% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 86, from 37.2 before the Great Depression (1929) to 167 before the Post-war slump (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 15 crises: War panic of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Sterling leaves gold (1931), Convertibility crisis (1947), Sterling devaluation of 1949, Sterling devaluation of 1967, Secondary banking crisis (1973), IMF crisis (1976), Early 1980s recession, Property bust and small-banks crisis (1990), Black Wednesday (1992), Global financial crisis (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020), Gilt crisis (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09