United Arab Emirates

Lower than 62% of years since 1951

→Danger about the same as a year ago (60)

Median 10.2% · usual range 0.77% to 17.4%

The year before past crises: median 4.59%, from -2.34% before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 19.7% before the Dubai debt crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Dubai debt crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Maddison Project 1950–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025

Lower than 59% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 39 a year ago

Median 2.25% · usual range 1.8% to 2.96%

The year before past crises: median 2.33%, from 1.91% before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 3.12% before the Stock market crash (2006)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 29% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 52% of years since 1992

↑Danger up from 49 a year ago

Median +0.01 pp · usual range -0.23 pp to +0.21 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.07 pp, from -0.2 pp before the Oil price crash (2014) to +0.16 pp before the Stock market crash (2006)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2020 (+1.96 pp)

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 89% of years since 2001

Median 22.6% of GDP · usual range 20.3% of GDP to 26.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 22.2% of GDP, from 20.2% of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006) to 25.2% of GDP before the Dubai debt crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2001–2023

Higher than 89% of years since 2002

Median 4.7% · usual range -10.9% to 13.9%

The year before past crises: median 7.41%, from 2.67% before the Stock market crash (2006) to 12.3% before the Dubai debt crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2001–2023

Higher than 52% of years since 2002

Median 6.57% · usual range 0.84% to 16%

The year before past crises: median 7.95%, from 0.75% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 11.5% before the Stock market crash (2006)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 2002–2023

Lower than 58% of years since 2008

↓Danger down from 28 a year ago

Median 1.59% · usual range -0.45% to 4.44%

The year before past crises: median -0.41%, from -1.93% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.1% before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Off the chart: 2008 (12.3%)

Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 2007–2025

Higher than 74% of years since 1974

↑Danger up from 25 a year ago

Median 8.82% · usual range 3.73% to 29.1%

The year before past crises: median 15.9%, from 6.44% before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 41.4% before the Dubai debt crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (167%), 1976 (90%)

Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1974–2025

Lower than 75% of years since 2021

Median -9.23 pp of GDP · usual range -12 pp of GDP to -6.46 pp of GDP

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 2016–2022

Lower than 93% of years since 2016

Median 76.2% of GDP · usual range 70.6% of GDP to 84.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 75.3% of GDP, from 75.3% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 75.3% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 1 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 2016–2022

Lower than 97% of years since 2009

↑Danger up from 84 a year ago

Median 12.5 % of assets · usual range 11.4 % of assets to 12.9 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 12.5 % of assets, from 12.4 % of assets before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 12.5 % of assets before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2009–2024

Lower than 97% of years since 2009

↓Danger down from 47 a year ago

Median 5.31 % of loans · usual range 4.46 % of loans to 7.21 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 5.94 % of loans, from 5.85 % of loans before the Oil price crash (2014) to 6.03 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2009–2024

Lower than 81% of years since 1975

Median 93.6% · usual range 75.9% to 113%

The year before past crises: median 90.8%, from 72% before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 103% before the Oil price collapse of 1998

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1975–2020

Higher than 94% of years since 1999

↑Danger up from 91 a year ago

Median 18.3% of GDP · usual range 3.36% of GDP to 32.4% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 12.1% of GDP, from 4.5% of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006) to 25.8% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1999–2025

Higher than 57% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 30 a year ago

Median 3.6% of GDP · usual range -2.7% of GDP to 13.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 8% of GDP, from 2.5% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 17.1% of GDP before the Dubai debt crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1991–2025

Lower than 66% of years since 2004

↓Danger down from 57 a year ago

Median +6 pp of GDP · usual range -1.68 pp of GDP to +15.2 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +5.95 pp of GDP, from +1.4 pp of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006) to +12.3 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Stock market crash (2006)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1999–2025

Higher than 90% of years since 2019

Median 0.4 % of spending · usual range 0.05 % of spending to 1.85 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 0 % of spending, from 0 % of spending before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 0 % of spending before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 1 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 2019–2023

Higher than 97% of years since 2007

↑Danger up from 92 a year ago

Median 53.5% of GDP · usual range 31.6% of GDP to 177% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 48.9% of GDP, from 44% of GDP before the Oil price crash (2014) to 56.9% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 2007–2024

Higher than 85% of years since 2004

Median 2.99% · usual range -9.52% to 17.1%

The year before past crises: median 10.2%, from -6.29% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 18.7% before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Stock market crash (2006), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED QAER628BIS 2003–2024-01

Higher than 69% of years since 2011

Median -0.74% · usual range -12.6% to 21.9%

The year before past crises: median 4.41%, from -9.05% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 17.9% before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED QAER628BIS 2003–2024-01

Higher than 50% of years since 2023

↑Danger up from 17 a year ago

Median 14% of GDP · usual range 14% of GDP to 15.4% of GDP

Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 2023–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2025–2025

Higher than 54% of years since 1967

→Danger about the same as a year ago (54)

Median 0% · usual range -0.94% to 0%

The year before past crises: median 0%, from 0% before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0% before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (PA.NUS.FCRF) 1966–2025

Lower than 100% of years since 2002

→Danger about the same as a year ago (0)

Median 4.32% · usual range -0.33% to 13.7%

The year before past crises: median 4.15%, from 1.34% before the Oil price crash (2014) to 7.51% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: FRED RBAEBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 83% of years since 2023

↓Danger down from 50 a year ago

Median 5.18 months of imports · usual range 4.73 months of imports to 5.22 months of imports

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 2023–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 6 a year ago

Median 0.52% of GDP · usual range 0.03% of GDP to 5.54% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 3.25% of GDP, from -0.54% of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 6.03% of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2024

Lower than 91% of years since 1971

→Danger about the same as a year ago (9)

Median 1.18 of 4 · usual range 1.07 of 4 to 1.32 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.18 of 4, from 1.07 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.34 of 4 before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 69% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2025

Higher than 92% of years since 1971

→Danger about the same as a year ago (92)

Median 0.02 of 4 · usual range 0.02 of 4 to 0.05 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.02 of 4, from 0.02 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0.05 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2025

Higher than 85% of years since 1971

→Danger about the same as a year ago (85)

Median 0.07 of 4 · usual range 0.07 of 4 to 0.07 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.07 of 4, from 0.07 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0.07 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1971 (0.35 of 4), 1972 (0.35 of 4), 2014 (0.26 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2025

Lower than 57% of years since 1971

→Danger about the same as a year ago (43)

Median 0.12 of 4 · usual range 0.11 of 4 to 0.86 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.12 of 4, from 0.12 of 4 before the Stock market crash (2006) to 0.86 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 22% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1984

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1984–2025

Lower than 96% of years since 1976

→Danger about the same as a year ago (96)

Median +0.3 points · usual range -0.23 points to +1.21 points

The year before past crises: median +0.5 points, from 0 points before the Stock market crash (2006) to +1.5 points before the Oil price collapse of 1998

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 25% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2025

Higher than 89% of years since 1971

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 0.08 · usual range 0 to 0.26

The year before past crises: median 0.08, from 0.01 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0.22 before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUIARE 1971–2026-04

Lower than 64% of years since 2008

↓Danger down from 58 a year ago

Median 3.73% · usual range 2.75% to 6.55%

The year before past crises: median 1.82%, from 0.4% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 3.23% before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Off the chart: 2008 (15.1%)

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 2007–2025

Lower than 94% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (6)

Median 20% · usual range 16.2% to 24.5%

The year before past crises: median 18.7%, from 16.2% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 20% before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1970 (30.2%)

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Lower than 84% of years since 1971

Median 2.96 of 4 · usual range 2.16 of 4 to 2.96 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.44 of 4, from 2.16 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 2.96 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2025

Lower than 81% of years since 1991

Median 26% of GDP · usual range 18.4% of GDP to 31.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 22.6% of GDP, from 15.7% of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006) to 28.9% of GDP before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008)

Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1991–2024

Lower than 75% of years since 1984

Median 0.21 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.43 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Stock market crash (2006) to 0.43 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1984–2025

Lower than 75% of years since 1984

Median 0.21 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.43 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Stock market crash (2006) to 0.43 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1984–2025

Lower than 98% of years since 1971

→Danger about the same as a year ago (2)

Median 13.6 of 100 · usual range 11.5 of 100 to 23.8 of 100

The year before past crises: median 12.8 of 100, from 11.5 of 100 before the Oil price crash (2014) to 22.5 of 100 before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2025

Lower than 97% of years since 1976

↑Danger up from 95 a year ago

Median +1 points · usual range -1.96 points to +7.03 points

The year before past crises: median +1.3 points, from -2.5 points before the Stock market crash (2006) to +14.1 points before the Oil price collapse of 1998

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 32% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2025

Lower than 63% of years since 1976

↑Danger up from 59 a year ago

Median +0.4 points · usual range -5.23 points to +3.32 points

The year before past crises: median -0.45 points, from -5.5 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +2.7 points before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2025

Lower than 63% of years since 1971

→Danger about the same as a year ago (37)

Median 3.08 of 4 · usual range 2.49 of 4 to 3.19 of 4

The year before past crises: median 3.08 of 4, from 2.76 of 4 before the Dubai debt crisis (2008) to 3.38 of 4 before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Dubai debt crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1971

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0 before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1971–2024

Higher than 99% of years since 1989

↑Danger up from 47 a year ago

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 0 before the Oil price collapse of 1998

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 53% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 50 a year ago

Median 6.43% · usual range 4.33% to 8%

The year before past crises: median 7.33%, from 4.59% before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 8.05% before the Stock market crash (2006)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 72% of years since 1960

Median 1.84 per 100 workers · usual range 1.46 per 100 workers to 2.69 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 1.85 per 100 workers, from 1.41 per 100 workers before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 2.2 per 100 workers before the Stock market crash (2006)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median -0.25%, from -12.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 36.3% before the Stock market crash (2006)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 2.89%, from -4.72% before the Dubai debt crisis (2008) to 11.7% before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 15.4, from 12.8 before the Stock market crash (2006) to 22.4 before the Oil price collapse of 1998

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 29% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median -3.01%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 23.3% before the Stock market crash (2006)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median -0.34%, from -8.71% before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 14% before the Dubai debt crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 78.4, from 65.9 before the Stock market crash (2006) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 76.8, from 39.7 before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 92.3 before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Dubai debt crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 22% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09