Built entirely by AI, analyses included. Not financial advice.
Country Outlook
Latest data Sep 2026 · computed 14 Oct 2026
History: Maddison Project GDP from 1950, World Bank from the 1960s-70s, IMF from 1980-2005
28%
estimated chance that an economic crisis starts within 2 years
28% of all its past years were followed by one
0 of the 3 past years that scored at least this high were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
67/100
Higher than 92% of years since 1987
Measures that published studies found often high before past crises: credit and debt growth, house and stock prices against their trend, the yield curve, interest-rate rises and external deficits. Low market volatility counts toward it.
Building up mostHousehold debt
100
Private credit
100
Corporate debt
100
50/100
Higher than 32% of years since 1970
How far today's readings are from Saudi Arabia's usual levels, across 47 indicators.
Economy
89
Private credit
85
Global environment
67
Stock market
62
Public finances
50
External
50
The build-up measures, each against Saudi Arabia's own history. Each area starts with a fixed weight, adjusted by how it read before Saudi Arabia's past crises.
Before 2 of the 3 economic crises that can be tested, the score was in the top quarter of the country's history (75th percentile or higher) in the 2 years before.
Of the 9 years it was that high outside a crisis, 2 (22%) were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
Ranking quality 45/100, where 50 is what chance would give (50 with every area weighted the same).
For comparison, the stress score ranked them 38/100.
| Crisis | Percentile before | Result |
|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) | 77 | High 1 year before |
| Oil price crash (2014) | 24 | Not high before |
| Stock market crash (2006) | 55 | High 2 years before |
How much today's readings look like the year before each crisis started.
COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
16%
Gulf War (1990)
15%
Oil glut (1982)
11%
Stock market crash (2006)
10%
Oil price crash (2014)
10%
3 of the 10 most similar past years were followed by a crisis within two years (COVID-19 and oil price war (2020), Gulf War (1990), Oil glut (1982)), against 7% of all years.
2021
24%
1967
19%
1957
18%
2019 → COVID-19 and oil price war began 2020
16%
2002
15%
1989 → Gulf War began 1990
15%
2001
14%
1965
13%
1980 → Oil glut began 1982
13%
1966
12%
55 indicators measured, 27 not available for Saudi Arabia.
Change in real output from a year earlier.
-3.66%
Q2 2026
Lower than 95% of years since 1951
Danger up from 67 a year ago
Median 7.47% · usual range 0.66% to 14.5%
The year before past crises: median 4.81%, from 0.83% before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to 11.3% before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: Maddison Project 1870–2022 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCSAQ 2023–2026-04
Share of the labour force out of work.
3.2%
2025
Lower than 98% of years since 1999
Danger down from 6 a year ago
Median 5.6% · usual range 4.18% to 6.1%
The year before past crises: median 5.6%, from 5.6% before the Oil price crash (2014) to 6.1% before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1999–2025
One-year change in the unemployment rate.
-0.3 pp
2025
Lower than 69% of years since 2000
Danger up from 17 a year ago
Median +0.1 pp · usual range -0.8 pp to +0.3 pp
The year before past crises: median +0.1 pp, from -0.4 pp before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to +0.3 pp before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1999–2025
Gross investment relative to GDP. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
31.6% of GDP
2025
Higher than 89% of years since 1968
Danger down from 81 a year ago
Median 23.6% of GDP · usual range 19.2% of GDP to 31.6% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 20.7% of GDP, from 18.8% of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 26.3% of GDP before the Oil price crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1973 (-13.4% of GDP)
Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1968–2025
Household spending after inflation, against a year earlier.
3.53%
2025
Lower than 82% of years since 2001
Danger up from 78 a year ago
Median 6.27% · usual range 1.8% to 11.3%
The year before past crises: median 6.44%, from 5.52% before the Oil price crash (2014) to 10.1% before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2000–2025
Volume of exports of goods and services against a year earlier.
8.9%
2025
Higher than 86% of years since 2001
Danger down from 42 a year ago
Median 1.8% · usual range -8.11% to 9.83%
The year before past crises: median -0.1%, from -3.16% before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to 6.7% before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 2001–2025
Consumer prices against a year earlier. Both high inflation and deflation count as the dangerous side.
2.04%
2025
Higher than 52% of years since 1964
Danger down from 8 a year ago
Median 1.71% · usual range -1.31% to 5.78%
The year before past crises: median 0.76%, from -2.04% before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to 3.12% before the Oil price crash (2014)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1973 (16.5%), 1974 (21.4%), 1975 (34.6%), 1976 (31.6%)
Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1963–2025
Growth of money and bank deposits over a year.
0.15%
2017
Lower than 99% of years since 1961
Median 10.8% · usual range 2.95% to 33.8%
The year before past crises: median 8.35%, from 0.87% before the Gulf War (1990) to 33% before the Oil glut (1982)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 22% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1975 (81.9%), 1976 (66.5%)
Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1961–2017
Five-year change in private credit relative to GDP.
+2.19 pp of GDP
Q4 2025
Lower than 59% of years since 1965
Danger down from 98 a year ago
Median +4.36 pp of GDP · usual range -2.98 pp of GDP to +11.2 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +3.66 pp of GDP, from +1.33 pp of GDP before the Oil price crash (2014) to +11.2 pp of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Oil price crash (2014)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2017 · FRED QSAPAM770A 2018–2025-10
Debt of households, mostly mortgages, relative to GDP.
31.7% of GDP
Q4 2025
Higher than 100% of years since 1998
Danger up from 96 a year ago
Median 25.3% of GDP · usual range 19.8% of GDP to 29.9% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 24% of GDP, from 23.3% of GDP before the Oil price crash (2014) to 29.6% of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED QSAHAM770A 1998–2025-10
Private credit relative to GDP against its long-run trend (one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter, as the BIS computes it).
+5 pp of GDP
2025
Higher than 82% of years since 1969
Danger up from 54 a year ago
Median +0.86 pp of GDP · usual range -3.17 pp of GDP to +5.53 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +0.3 pp of GDP, from -4.78 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to +3.35 pp of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2017 · FRED QSAPAM770A 2018–2025
Loans to households and firms relative to GDP (bank loans in the history, total credit rescaled to it after).
68% of GDP
Q4 2025
Higher than 100% of years since 1960
Danger up from 97 a year ago
Median 20.7% of GDP · usual range 5.46% of GDP to 53.1% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 28.5% of GDP, from 6.94% of GDP before the Oil glut (1982) to 45.1% of GDP before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 29% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2017 · FRED QSAPAM770A 2018–2025-10
Debt of non-financial companies relative to GDP.
45.9% of GDP
Q4 2025
Higher than 100% of years since 1998
Danger up from 93 a year ago
Median 24.3% of GDP · usual range 16.2% of GDP to 38.9% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 21.5% of GDP, from 18.5% of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006) to 29.2% of GDP before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED QSANAM770A 1998–2025-10
Banks’ own capital relative to their assets.
13.9 % of assets
2025
Higher than 50% of years since 2009
Danger down from 74 a year ago
Median 13.9 % of assets · usual range 12.1 % of assets to 15 % of assets
The year before past crises: median 14 % of assets, from 13.5 % of assets before the Oil price crash (2014) to 14.4 % of assets before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2009–2025
Non-performing loans as a share of all bank loans.
1.04 % of loans
2025
Lower than 97% of years since 2009
Danger down from 21 a year ago
Median 1.67 % of loans · usual range 1.17 % of loans to 2.52 % of loans
The year before past crises: median 1.59 % of loans, from 1.31 % of loans before the Oil price crash (2014) to 1.86 % of loans before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2009–2025
Bank loans relative to bank deposits.
139%
2017
Higher than 59% of years since 1968
Median 137% · usual range 98.5% to 186%
The year before past crises: median 136%, from 99.4% before the Oil glut (1982) to 198% before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price crash (2014)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1968–2017
General government gross debt.
31.8% of GDP
2025
Higher than 56% of years since 1991
Danger up from 50 a year ago
Median 25.9% of GDP · usual range 5.38% of GDP to 90.5% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 28.8% of GDP, from 2.1% of GDP before the Oil price crash (2014) to 76.7% of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 25% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1991–2025
Government revenue minus spending; negative is a deficit.
-5.8% of GDP
2025
Lower than 70% of years since 1991
Danger up from 43 a year ago
Median -3.3% of GDP · usual range -9.14% of GDP to 11.8% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 1.5% of GDP, from -4% of GDP before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to 18% of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1991–2025
Five-year change in public debt relative to GDP.
+2.1 pp of GDP
2025
Lower than 55% of years since 1996
Danger down from 52 a year ago
Median +5.5 pp of GDP · usual range -51.2 pp of GDP to +29.5 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +4.4 pp of GDP, from -49.4 pp of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006) to +28.9 pp of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1991–2025
Government interest payments as a share of its spending (World Bank).
3.41 % of spending
2023
Higher than 96% of years since 2010
Median 1.51 % of spending · usual range 0.49 % of spending to 2.97 % of spending
The year before past crises: median 1.5 % of spending, from 0.63 % of spending before the Oil price crash (2014) to 2.37 % of spending before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 2010–2023
Value of listed companies relative to GDP (World Bank).
185% of GDP
2025
Higher than 62% of years since 2009
Danger down from 74 a year ago
Median 66.9% of GDP · usual range 53.5% of GDP to 271% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 166% of GDP, from 60.7% of GDP before the Oil price crash (2014) to 271% of GDP before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Oil price crash (2014)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 2009–2025
Balance of trade, income and transfers with the rest of the world; negative is a deficit.
-2.56% of GDP
2025
Lower than 66% of years since 1971
Danger about the same as a year ago (65)
Median 4.94% of GDP · usual range -12.7% of GDP to 25% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 11% of GDP, from -9.99% of GDP before the Gulf War (1990) to 27.1% of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 1971–2025
Change in the price of a US dollar in local currency: positive means the currency weakened.
0%
2025
Higher than 51% of years since 1961
Danger about the same as a year ago (51)
Median 0% · usual range -0.66% to 0.61%
The year before past crises: median 0%, from 0% before the Gulf War (1990) to 1.68% before the Oil glut (1982)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (PA.NUS.FCRF) 1960–2025
Real effective exchange rate (BIS) against its 10-year average.
0.31%
Jul 2026
Lower than 58% of years since 2002
Danger about the same as a year ago (42)
Median 3.22% · usual range -16.1% to 12%
The year before past crises: median 6.41%, from -16.7% before the Stock market crash (2006) to 6.82% before the Oil price crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Stock market crash (2006)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED RBSABIS 1994–2026-07
Central bank reserves measured in months of imports.
15.6 months of imports
2025
Higher than 59% of years since 1971
Danger down from 45 a year ago
Median 10.1 months of imports · usual range 3.54 months of imports to 30.6 months of imports
The year before past crises: median 12.9 months of imports, from 3.52 months of imports before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 37.4 months of imports before the Oil price crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1971–2025
Net inflows of foreign direct investment relative to GDP.
2.56% of GDP
2025
Higher than 85% of years since 1970
Danger down from 22 a year ago
Median 0.46% of GDP · usual range -1.22% of GDP to 3.05% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 0.89% of GDP, from -0.69% of GDP before the Gulf War (1990) to 3.53% of GDP before the Oil glut (1982)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1974 (-8.22% of GDP)
Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025
How hostile supporters of opposing political camps are to each other (V-Dem experts; 0 = friendly, 4 = generally hostile).
0.89 of 4
2025
Lower than 98% of years since 1932
Danger about the same as a year ago (2)
Median 0.96 of 4 · usual range 0.92 of 4 to 1.18 of 4
The year before past crises: median 1.01 of 4, from 0.95 of 4 before the Gulf War (1990) to 1.28 of 4 before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1932–2025
How frequent and large demonstrations, strikes and sit-ins were (V-Dem; 0 = virtually none, 4 = many large-scale).
0.05 of 4
2025
Lower than 76% of years since 1932
Danger about the same as a year ago (24)
Median 0.11 of 4 · usual range 0.02 of 4 to 0.42 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.11 of 4, from 0.07 of 4 before the Oil glut (1982) to 0.44 of 4 before the Oil price crash (2014)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1979 (0.62 of 4), 2010 (0.81 of 4), 2011 (1.14 of 4), 2012 (0.71 of 4), 2020 (0.87 of 4)
Sources: V-Dem 1932–2025
How often non-state actors used violence for political ends (V-Dem; 0 = not at all, 4 = often).
0.58 of 4
2025
Lower than 97% of years since 1932
Danger about the same as a year ago (3)
Median 1.06 of 4 · usual range 0.8 of 4 to 1.13 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.96 of 4, from 0.75 of 4 before the Oil price crash (2014) to 1.31 of 4 before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1932–2025
Strength of movements that want to change the political system fundamentally (V-Dem; 0 = practically none, 4 = very strong).
0.8 of 4
2025
Higher than 69% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (69)
Median 0.36 of 4 · usual range 0.18 of 4 to 3.3 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.35 of 4, from 0.33 of 4 before the Oil glut (1982) to 0.57 of 4 before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them separatist or autonomist (V-Dem).
0.4 of 4
2025
Higher than 100% of years since 1892
Danger about the same as a year ago (98)
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.07 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.06 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Gulf War (1990) to 0.13 of 4 before the Oil price crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1892–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem liberal democracy index (0-100); negative means it fell.
+0.2 points
2025
Higher than 82% of years since 1855
Danger about the same as a year ago (18)
Median 0 points · usual range -0.1 points to +0.3 points
The year before past crises: median +0.05 points, from -0.1 points before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to +0.2 points before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1973 (-0.6 points), 1974 (-0.6 points), 1975 (-0.4 points), 1976 (-0.4 points), 1977 (-0.4 points), 2009 (+0.6 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
How often "uncertainty" appears in country reports (World Uncertainty Index; Economic Policy Uncertainty for the euro area).
0.35
Q2 2026
Higher than 100% of years since 1968
Danger up from 79 a year ago
Median 0.09 · usual range 0.02 to 0.17
The year before past crises: median 0.08, from 0.04 before the Stock market crash (2006) to 0.19 before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 29% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED WUISAU 1968–2026-04
Unemployment rate plus inflation.
5.24%
2025
Lower than 76% of years since 1999
Danger up from 17 a year ago
Median 7.44% · usual range 3.53% to 10.9%
The year before past crises: median 6.58%, from 3.56% before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to 8.72% before the Oil price crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1999–2025 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1963–2025
Share of national income before taxes going to the richest 1% (World Inequality Database, with its estimates for gaps).
23.2%
2024
Lower than 54% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (46)
Median 23.2% · usual range 23.2% to 24.5%
The year before past crises: median 23.2%, from 23.2% before the Oil glut (1982) to 23.2% before the Oil glut (1982)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024
How much of the economy the state owns or directly controls (V-Dem; 0 = very little, 4 = virtually all).
2.86 of 4
2025
Higher than 99% of years since 1850
Median 2.52 of 4 · usual range 2.52 of 4 to 2.76 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.56 of 4, from 2.55 of 4 before the Oil glut (1982) to 2.61 of 4 before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Size of the state: government spending relative to GDP. The long-run series cover central government only, so the level is lower than the familiar general-government figure.
29.6% of GDP
2024
Lower than 78% of years since 1991
Median 33.1% of GDP · usual range 28.2% of GDP to 37.6% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 33.1% of GDP, from 28.2% of GDP before the Stock market crash (2006) to 35.6% of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Stock market crash (2006)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1991–2024
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them leftist, socialist or communist (V-Dem).
0 of 4
2025
Higher than 50% of years since 1892
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Oil glut (1982) to 0 of 4 before the Oil glut (1982)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1892–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them rightist or "party of order" (V-Dem).
0.4 of 4
2025
Higher than 100% of years since 1892
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Oil glut (1982) to 0 of 4 before the Oil glut (1982)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1892–2025
V-Dem political corruption index (0 = none, 100 = pervasive).
32.6 of 100
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (1)
Median 47 of 100 · usual range 43.1 of 100 to 57.2 of 100
The year before past crises: median 45 of 100, from 40.4 of 100 before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to 47 of 100 before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem rule-of-law index (0-100).
+5.6 points
2025
Higher than 94% of years since 1855
Danger about the same as a year ago (5)
Median 0 points · usual range -0.8 points to +3.1 points
The year before past crises: median -0.2 points, from -1.5 points before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to +4.6 points before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem freedom of expression and alternative information index (0-100).
+0.8 points
2025
Higher than 84% of years since 1855
Danger down from 54 a year ago
Median 0 points · usual range -0.2 points to +1 points
The year before past crises: median +0.45 points, from -1.9 points before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to +2.3 points before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
How much the government represses civil society organizations (V-Dem; 0 = none, 4 = severely).
2.19 of 4
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (1)
Median 2.97 of 4 · usual range 2.45 of 4 to 2.97 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.77 of 4, from 2.45 of 4 before the Oil glut (1982) to 2.85 of 4 before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 30% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Coup attempts in the year (Powell & Thyne, via V-Dem).
0
2024
Higher than 50% of years since 1950
Danger about the same as a year ago (50)
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil glut (1982) to 0 before the Oil glut (1982)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024
Deaths in armed conflicts the country is involved in (Uppsala Conflict Data Program, via Our World in Data).
5
2026
Higher than 66% of years since 1989
Danger about the same as a year ago (66)
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 66.5
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Gulf War (1990) to 31 before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil price crash (2014)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 75% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1991 (96), 2004 (91), 2015 (120), 2016 (125), 2017 (56)
Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026
Share of newspaper articles about wars, terrorism and tensions involving the country, since 1900 (Caldara & Iacoviello).
1.04 % of articles
Sep 2026
Higher than 100% of years since 1900
Danger up from 78 a year ago
Median 0.04 % of articles · usual range 0 % of articles to 0.3 % of articles
The year before past crises: median 0.18 % of articles, from 0.1 % of articles before the Gulf War (1990) to 0.41 % of articles before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09
Unemployment of 15-24-year-olds (ILO estimates via the World Bank).
10%
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1991
Danger down from 4 a year ago
Median 25.1% · usual range 17.5% to 31.7%
The year before past crises: median 26.2%, from 25.5% before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to 27% before the Oil price crash (2014)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 79% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025
People aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age.
4.17 per 100 workers
2025
Higher than 69% of years since 1960
Median 3.69 per 100 workers · usual range 3.35 per 100 workers to 5.84 per 100 workers
The year before past crises: median 3.57 per 100 workers, from 3.24 per 100 workers before the Oil price crash (2014) to 3.99 per 100 workers before the Oil glut (1982)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025
Crude oil price (WTI) against a year earlier. Both sharp rises and falls count as the dangerous side.
52.1%
Sep 2026
Higher than 95% of years since 1947
Danger up from 65 a year ago
Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%
The year before past crises: median 1.03%, from -12.3% before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to 36.3% before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1974 (168%)
Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09
The US dollar against major currencies, against a year earlier.
-0.68%
Sep 2026
Lower than 77% of years since 1974
Danger about the same as a year ago (23)
Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%
The year before past crises: median 5.9%, from -2.57% before the Stock market crash (2006) to 11% before the Oil glut (1982)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Stock market crash (2006)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09
Expected stock market volatility implied by S&P 500 option prices (VIX).
15.8
Sep 2026
Lower than 67% of years since 1990
Danger about the same as a year ago (33)
Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6
The year before past crises: median 14.8, from 12.8 before the Stock market crash (2006) to 22.4 before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 22% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09
IMF index of all commodity prices against a year earlier.
16.6%
Jul 2026
Higher than 70% of years since 1993
Danger up from 9 a year ago
Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%
The year before past crises: median -4.72%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020) to 23.3% before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Oil price crash (2014)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07
IMF food price index against a year earlier.
4.78%
Jul 2026
Higher than 64% of years since 1993
Danger up from 27 a year ago
Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%
The year before past crises: median -1.7%, from -8.71% before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 1.27% before the Stock market crash (2006)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index (GDP-weighted, Baker, Bloom & Davis).
242
Jul 2026
Higher than 90% of years since 1997
Danger down from 100 a year ago
Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239
The year before past crises: median 104, from 65.9 before the Stock market crash (2006) to 235 before the COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07
News coverage of wars, terrorism and international tensions since 1900 (Caldara & Iacoviello; 100 = the 1985-2019 average).
137
Sep 2026
Higher than 88% of years since 1900
Danger up from 80 a year ago
Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161
The year before past crises: median 75.6, from 39.7 before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 102 before the Oil glut (1982)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil glut (1982), Gulf War (1990), Oil price collapse of 1998, Stock market crash (2006), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 and oil price war (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 28% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)
Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09
Oil briefly fell below zero in the US and output fell about 4%.
Oil fell 70%; the deficit reached 15% of GDP and the kingdom borrowed abroad for the first time in years.
The Tadawul lost more than half its value.
Oil fell to about $10 and the budget deficit soared.
Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and the war that followed.
Saudi Arabia cut output to defend prices, then oil halved in 1986; GDP fell for years.