Russia

Lower than 65% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 41 a year ago

Median 2.93% · usual range -6.52% to 12.5%

The year before past crises: median 2.2%, from -10.7% before the Interbank crisis of 1995 to 23.8% before the Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875), Industrial crisis of 1900-03, World War I and revolution (1914), Collectivization famine (1930), Soviet collapse (1989), Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (-38.9%)

Sources: Maddison Project 1870–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025

Lower than 98% of years since 1992

↓Danger down from 4 a year ago

Median 6.1% · usual range 4.18% to 10.2%

The year before past crises: median 5.9%, from 4.6% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 10.8% before the Default and ruble collapse (1998)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 7 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1992–2025

Lower than 53% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 32 a year ago

Median -0.3 pp · usual range -1 pp to +1.18 pp

The year before past crises: median 0 pp, from -1.1 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +2.2 pp before the Interbank crisis of 1995

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1992–2025

Higher than 78% of years since 1988

↓Danger down from 61 a year ago

Median 23.2% of GDP · usual range 19.7% of GDP to 28.2% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 24.2% of GDP, from 22% of GDP before the Default and ruble collapse (1998) to 36.3% of GDP before the Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 9 crises: Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1988–2025

Lower than 71% of years since 1997

↑Danger up from 43 a year ago

Median 5.44% · usual range -3.63% to 11.7%

The year before past crises: median 5.09%, from 3.75% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 1996–2025

Lower than 56% of years since 1991

Median 3.67% · usual range -4.17% to 11.5%

The year before past crises: median 2.68%, from -30% before the Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992) to 12.6% before the Interbank crisis of 1995

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Interbank crisis of 1995, Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1991 (-30%), 1992 (-28.7%)

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1991–2021

Lower than 59% of years since 1993

↓Danger down from 30 a year ago

Median 10.9% · usual range 4.59% to 78.2%

The year before past crises: median 9.01%, from 4.47% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 874% before the Black Tuesday (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 7 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1993 (874%), 1994 (308%), 1995 (197%), 1999 (85.8%)

Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1992–2025

Lower than 83% of years since 1996

↓Danger down from 93 a year ago

Median -1.37 pp · usual range -10.5 pp to +4.44 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.17 pp, from -68.4 pp before the Default and ruble collapse (1998) to +1.77 pp before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Default and ruble collapse (1998)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1996 (-84.8 pp), 1997 (-68.4 pp), 1998 (+28.3 pp), 2000 (-25.3 pp)

Sources: FRED IRSTCI01RUM156N 1995–2025-10

Higher than 67% of years since 1995

↓Danger down from 47 a year ago

Median 11.1% · usual range 5.94% to 57.4%

The year before past crises: median 7.33%, from 5.98% before the War sanctions (2022) to 31.4% before the Default and ruble collapse (1998)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 100% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1995 (185%), 1996 (99.8%)

Sources: FRED IRSTCI01RUM156N 1995–2025-10

Higher than 83% of years since 1995

↓Danger down from 80 a year ago

Median +1.73 pp · usual range -3.01 pp to +11.5 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.2 pp, from -0.72 pp before the War sanctions (2022) to +16.7 pp before the Default and ruble collapse (1998)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1996 (+52.1 pp), 1998 (+32.1 pp), 1999 (-28.7 pp)

Sources: FRED IRSTCI01RUM156N 1995–2025-10 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1992–2025

Lower than 55% of years since 2002

Median 17.3% · usual range 6.95% to 38.9%

The year before past crises: median 16%, from 5.1% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 41.1% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 2002–2020

Lower than 100% of years since 2001

↓Danger down from 12 a year ago

Median +14.5 pp of GDP · usual range +0.85 pp of GDP to +31.7 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +11 pp of GDP, from +4.9 pp of GDP before the War sanctions (2022) to +28.2 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: FRED QRUPAM770A 1996–2025-10

Higher than 89% of years since 1998

→Danger about the same as a year ago (89)

Median 12% of GDP · usual range 0.83% of GDP to 21.2% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 16.9% of GDP, from 9.55% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 21.6% of GDP before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED QRUHAM770A 1998–2025-10

Lower than 83% of years since 2005

↑Danger up from 12 a year ago

Median -0.17 pp of GDP · usual range -12.2 pp of GDP to +8.66 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median -1.61 pp of GDP, from -7.74 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +8.44 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: FRED QRUPAM770A 1996–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1996

↑Danger up from 83 a year ago

Median 65.7% of GDP · usual range 24% of GDP to 101% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 77% of GDP, from 17.8% of GDP before the Default and ruble collapse (1998) to 106% of GDP before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED QRUPAM770A 1996–2025-10

Higher than 93% of years since 1998

↑Danger up from 75 a year ago

Median 56.6% of GDP · usual range 26.3% of GDP to 84% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 70% of GDP, from 46.8% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 84% of GDP before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED QRUNAM770A 1998–2025-10

Lower than 84% of years since 2008

Median 9.17 % of assets · usual range 7.9 % of assets to 10.6 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 9.19 % of assets, from 9.16 % of assets before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 10.4 % of assets before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Sources: World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2008–2023

Lower than 91% of years since 2008

Median 7.49 % of loans · usual range 5.01 % of loans to 9.62 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 6.1 % of loans, from 6.02 % of loans before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014) to 8.83 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2008–2023

Lower than 74% of years since 2001

Median 107% · usual range 101% to 120%

The year before past crises: median 111%, from 104% before the War sanctions (2022) to 120% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: War sanctions (2022)

Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 2001–2021

Higher than 96% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 11.3 % of income · usual range 5.37 % of income to 16.5 % of income

The year before past crises: median 11 % of income, from 7.58 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 12.1 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 0% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 67% of years since 1997

↑Danger up from 41 a year ago

Median 15.1% of GDP · usual range 9.88% of GDP to 52.4% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 13.7% of GDP, from 8% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 51.5% of GDP before the Default and ruble collapse (1998)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1998 (135% of GDP), 1999 (92.4% of GDP), 2000 (55.9% of GDP)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1997–2025

Lower than 87% of years since 1998

↑Danger up from 66 a year ago

Median -0.35% of GDP · usual range -3.93% of GDP to 4.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.35% of GDP, from -1.2% of GDP before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014) to 5.6% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 0% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1998–2025

Lower than 60% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 56 a year ago

Median +0.65 pp of GDP · usual range -39.1 pp of GDP to +4.78 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +0.15 pp of GDP, from -29.6 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +4.9 pp of GDP before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Off the chart: 2003 (-107 pp of GDP)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1997–2025

Higher than 84% of years since 1999

Median -6.87 pp · usual range -13.5 pp to +3.26 pp

The year before past crises: median -7.22 pp, from -13.3 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008) to -1.18 pp before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01RUM156N 1999–2018-06 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1992–2025 · Maddison Project 1870–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025

Lower than 61% of years since 1999

Median 2.59 % of spending · usual range 1.76 % of spending to 11.1 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 2.12 % of spending, from 1.84 % of spending before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 2.92 % of spending before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1999–2020

Lower than 79% of years since 1999

Median 8.46% · usual range 7.26% to 22.5%

The year before past crises: median 7.03%, from 6.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 7.33% before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Off the chart: 1999 (87.4%), 2000 (35.2%)

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01RUM156N 1999–2018-06

Lower than 67% of years since 2000

Median -0.64 pp · usual range -9.43 pp to +1.5 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.54 pp, from -0.82 pp before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014) to -0.26 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Off the chart: 2000 (-52.2 pp), 2001 (-15.8 pp)

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01RUM156N 1999–2018-06

Higher than 79% of years since 1999

Median -1.29 pp · usual range -5.86 pp to +2.76 pp

The year before past crises: median -1.74 pp, from -3.49 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0 pp before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Off the chart: 1999 (+30.3 pp)

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01RUM156N 1999–2018-06 · FRED IRSTCI01RUM156N 1995–2024

Higher than 90% of years since 1999

Median -0.38 pp · usual range -4.59 pp to +3.78 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.85 pp, from -2.29 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +0.58 pp before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01RUM156N 1999–2018-06 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1992–2025

Lower than 64% of years since 1999

Median 6.68% · usual range -28% to 35.4%

The year before past crises: median 13.3%, from -7.16% before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014) to 22.5% before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 0% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01RUM661N 1998–2024-07 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1992–2025

Lower than 56% of years since 2006

Median 0.41% · usual range -20.5% to 95.8%

The year before past crises: median 32.9%, from -17.5% before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014) to 173% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Off the chart: 2006 (185%), 2007 (173%)

Sources: FRED SPASTT01RUM661N 1998–2024-07 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1992–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 1998

Median 18.2% · usual range 10.8% to 52.6%

The year before past crises: median 13.3%, from 9.49% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 15.5% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01RUM661N 1998–2024-07

Lower than 88% of years since 1998

Median -2.45% · usual range -40.6% to 0%

The year before past crises: median 0%, from -27.7% before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014) to 0% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 0% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01RUM661N 1998–2024-07 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1992–2025

Lower than 77% of years since 2009

Median 38.3% of GDP · usual range 25.4% of GDP to 56.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 46% of GDP, from 33.6% of GDP before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014) to 46.8% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 2009–2023

Higher than 58% of years since 2002

↑Danger up from 0 a year ago

Median 6.36% · usual range -11.4% to 15.1%

The year before past crises: median 4.62%, from -2.97% before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014) to 32.7% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Sources: FRED QRUR628BIS 2001–2026-01

Higher than 88% of years since 2009

→Danger about the same as a year ago (88)

Median -2.34% · usual range -33.5% to 34.1%

The year before past crises: median -4.92%, from -26.1% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to -2.34% before the Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Sources: FRED QRUR628BIS 2001–2026-01

Lower than 85% of years since 1992

↑Danger up from 60 a year ago

Median 3.9% of GDP · usual range 1.36% of GDP to 10.2% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 3% of GDP, from -0.2% of GDP before the Default and ruble collapse (1998) to 6.8% of GDP before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Interbank crisis of 1995, Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 32% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 1992–2025

Lower than 53% of years since 1994

↑Danger up from 3 a year ago

Median 6.57% · usual range -5.83% to 66.7%

The year before past crises: median 2.82%, from -5.9% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 126% before the Interbank crisis of 1995

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 25% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1994 (126%), 1995 (107%), 1999 (154%)

Sources: FRED CCUSMA02RUM618N 1993–2026-08

Higher than 67% of years since 2002

↑Danger up from 63 a year ago

Median 7.52% · usual range -16% to 28.4%

The year before past crises: median 4.57%, from -15.6% before the War sanctions (2022) to 33.4% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Sources: FRED RBRUBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 95% of years since 1994

↓Danger down from 11 a year ago

Median 11.5 months of imports · usual range 2.03 months of imports to 16.3 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 12.4 months of imports, from 1.26 months of imports before the Interbank crisis of 1995 to 16.1 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 69% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1994–2024

Lower than 81% of years since 1992

↓Danger down from 93 a year ago

Median 1.14% of GDP · usual range 0.2% of GDP to 3.01% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.89% of GDP, from 0.17% of GDP before the Interbank crisis of 1995 to 4.3% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1992–2025

Higher than 84% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (84)

Median 2.92 of 4 · usual range 2.43 of 4 to 3.32 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.83 of 4, from 1.95 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 3.38 of 4 before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: World War I and revolution (1914), Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 73% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 89 a year ago

Median 1.99 of 4 · usual range 1.57 of 4 to 3.48 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.72 of 4, from 1.36 of 4 before the War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904) to 3.95 of 4 before the Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 13 crises: War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), World War I and revolution (1914), Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 82% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 85% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (86)

Median 1.61 of 4 · usual range 1.15 of 4 to 2.78 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.41 of 4, from 1.3 of 4 before the World War II (1941) to 2.8 of 4 before the War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: World War I and revolution (1914), Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), Soviet collapse (1989), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 79% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 79% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (21)

Median 1 of 4 · usual range 0.08 of 4 to 2.33 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.36 of 4, from 0.08 of 4 before the World War II (1941) to 2.82 of 4 before the Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 15 crises: World War II (1941)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 66% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (34)

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.39 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.22 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875) to 0.79 of 4 before the Black Tuesday (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 15 crises: Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875), Industrial crisis of 1900-03, Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1863 (1.81 of 4), 1864 (1.81 of 4), 1919 (1.37 of 4), 1920 (1.37 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 90% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 93 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -4.1 points to +2.4 points

The year before past crises: median -0.1 points, from -2.9 points before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +25.1 points before the Black Tuesday (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875), Industrial crisis of 1900-03, War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), World War I and revolution (1914), Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1865 (+5.4 points), 1866 (+6 points), 1867 (+6.1 points), 1868 (+6 points), 1881 (-5.7 points), 1882 (-5.7 points), 1990 (+6.7 points), 1991 (+9.2 points), 1992 (+25.8 points), 1993 (+25.1 points), 1994 (+22.9 points), 1995 (+20.1 points), 1996 (+16.1 points), 2000 (-7.4 points), 2001 (-8.9 points), 2002 (-10.9 points), 2003 (-11.7 points), 2004 (-13.1 points), 2005 (-7.4 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 90% of years since 1953

↑Danger up from 37 a year ago

Median 0.12 · usual range 0 to 0.29

The year before past crises: median 0.13, from 0.1 before the Soviet collapse (1989) to 0.35 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUIRUS 1953–2026-04

Lower than 80% of years since 1993

↓Danger down from 23 a year ago

Median 17.7% · usual range 9.09% to 90.4%

The year before past crises: median 15%, from 9.07% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 880% before the Black Tuesday (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 7 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1993 (880%), 1994 (316%), 1995 (206%), 1999 (98.8%)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1992–2025 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1992–2025

Higher than 89% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (89)

Median 15.1% · usual range 4.1% to 23.8%

The year before past crises: median 13.7%, from 4.2% before the World War II (1941) to 25.9% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 10 crises: World War II (1941), Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Higher than 56% of years since 1850

Median 2.29 of 4 · usual range 1.95 of 4 to 3.96 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.29 of 4, from 1.55 of 4 before the Interbank crisis of 1995 to 3.96 of 4 before the World War II (1941)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 15 crises: Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875), Industrial crisis of 1900-03, War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), World War I and revolution (1914), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1885

Median 16.4% of GDP · usual range 5.73% of GDP to 35.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 24.5% of GDP, from 5.49% of GDP before the World War II (1941) to 34.9% of GDP before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Industrial crisis of 1900-03, War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1885–2024

Lower than 81% of years since 1850

Median 0.36 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 1.9 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.39 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Collectivization famine (1930) to 2.22 of 4 before the Industrial crisis of 1900-03

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 15 crises: Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), War sanctions (2022)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 66% of years since 1850

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.49 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.13 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875) to 0.5 of 4 before the World War I and revolution (1914)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 15 crises: Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875), Industrial crisis of 1900-03, War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), War sanctions (2022)

Off the chart: 1917 (1.22 of 4), 1918 (1.37 of 4), 1919 (2.05 of 4), 1920 (1.71 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 96% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (97)

Median 43.9 of 100 · usual range 20.9 of 100 to 73.8 of 100

The year before past crises: median 54 of 100, from 20.5 of 100 before the World War II (1941) to 77.4 of 100 before the Default and ruble collapse (1998)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875), Industrial crisis of 1900-03, War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), World War I and revolution (1914), Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 69% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 91% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 94 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -5.9 points to +7 points

The year before past crises: median +0.8 points, from -5.5 points before the War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904) to +9.1 points before the Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875), Industrial crisis of 1900-03, War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), World War I and revolution (1914), Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1865 (+26.8 points), 1866 (+35.3 points), 1867 (+35.3 points), 1868 (+37.4 points), 1869 (+25.3 points), 1870 (+16.1 points), 1878 (-16.9 points), 1879 (-18.5 points), 1880 (-18.5 points), 1881 (-25.4 points), 1882 (-25.4 points), 1918 (-19.4 points), 1919 (-20.8 points), 1920 (-20.2 points), 1921 (-17.5 points), 1922 (-16.8 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 96% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (97)

Median 0 points · usual range -11.5 points to +4 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -7.6 points before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +52.5 points before the Black Tuesday (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 15 crises: Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875), Industrial crisis of 1900-03, War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), World War I and revolution (1914), Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1856 (+10.9 points), 1857 (+10.9 points), 1858 (+10.9 points), 1859 (+10.9 points), 1987 (+26.1 points), 1988 (+26.6 points), 1989 (+34.4 points), 1990 (+52.6 points), 1991 (+50.2 points), 1992 (+53 points), 1993 (+52.5 points), 1994 (+44.7 points), 1995 (+24 points), 1996 (+21.1 points), 2001 (-25.2 points), 2002 (-28.2 points), 2003 (-32.4 points), 2004 (-34.4 points), 2024 (-22.3 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 84% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (86)

Median 2.29 of 4 · usual range 1.6 of 4 to 3.86 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.27 of 4, from 0.79 of 4 before the Black Tuesday (1994) to 3.86 of 4 before the Collectivization famine (1930)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 15 crises: Moscow Loan Bank collapse (1875), Industrial crisis of 1900-03, War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), World War I and revolution (1914), Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 24% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Soviet collapse (1989) to 0 before the Soviet collapse (1989)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Lower than 51% of years since 1989

↓Danger down from 93 a year ago

Median 235 · usual range 0 to 3,230

The year before past crises: median 85.5, from 0 before the Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992) to 473 before the Interbank crisis of 1995

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 23% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1999 (6,197), 2000 (4,318), 2024 (10,585), 2025 (4,420)

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 53% of years since 1994

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 143 · usual range 63.6 to 428

The year before past crises: median 149, from 88.2 before the Default and ruble collapse (1998) to 334 before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 69% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1994–2026-07

Higher than 73% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 46 a year ago

Median 0.97 % of articles · usual range 0.25 % of articles to 2.05 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.66 % of articles, from 0.18 % of articles before the World War I and revolution (1914) to 1.38 % of articles before the Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), World War I and revolution (1914), Collectivization famine (1930), World War II (1941), Soviet collapse (1989), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 18% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 99% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 4 a year ago

Median 16.3% · usual range 12.9% to 20.2%

The year before past crises: median 14.8%, from 13% before the Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992) to 23.6% before the Default and ruble collapse (1998)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 8 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 16.5 per 100 workers · usual range 10.7 per 100 workers to 22 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 18.1 per 100 workers, from 14.1 per 100 workers before the Soviet collapse (1989) to 23.6 per 100 workers before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median -7.02%, from -16.7% before the Soviet collapse (1989) to 73.3% before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 4.11%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 8.93% before the Black Tuesday (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 16.4, from 12.7 before the Black Tuesday (1994) to 22.4 before the Default and ruble collapse (1998)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median -2.16%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 52.6% before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 7 crises: Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 1.45%, from -8.71% before the Default and ruble collapse (1998) to 27% before the War sanctions (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 129, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 83% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 70, from 39.7 before the Default and ruble collapse (1998) to 200 before the World War II (1941)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: War with Japan and the 1905 revolution (1904), World War I and revolution (1914), Collectivization famine (1930), Soviet collapse (1989), Price liberalization and hyperinflation (1992), Black Tuesday (1994), Interbank crisis of 1995, Default and ruble collapse (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Ruble crisis and sanctions (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020), War sanctions (2022)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 8% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09