Built entirely by AI, analyses included. Not financial advice.
Country Outlook
Latest data Sep 2026 · computed 14 Oct 2026
History: Maddison Project GDP from 1950, World Bank from the 1960s-70s, IMF from 1980-2005
Data, scores and the AI report are updated once a month.
10%
estimated chance that an economic crisis starts within 2 years
27% of all its past years were followed by one
4 of the 15 past years that scored at least this high were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
39/100
Higher than 4% of years since 1999
Measures that published studies found often high before past crises: credit and debt growth, house and stock prices against their trend, the yield curve, interest-rate rises and external deficits. Low market volatility counts toward it.
Building up mostPrivate credit
97
Market fear (VIX)
67
Current account
50
47/100
Higher than 36% of years since 1970
How far today's readings are from Qatar's usual levels, across 38 indicators.
Global environment
67
Private credit
50
Stock market
43
Public finances
33
External
27
Inflation and policy
21
The build-up measures, each against Qatar's own history. Each area starts with a fixed weight, adjusted by how it read before Qatar's past crises.
No crisis since the score's history begins can be tested yet.
Outside crises, it was never that high.
Ranking quality 80/100, where 50 is what chance would give (82 with every area weighted the same).
For comparison, the stress score ranked them 40/100.
How much today's readings look like the year before each crisis started.
Global financial crisis (2008)
10%
COVID-19 recession (2020)
7%
Blockade (2017)
7%
Oil price collapse (1986)
6%
Oil price collapse of 1998
5%
1 of the 10 most similar past years were followed by a crisis within two years (COVID-19 recession (2020)), against 10% of all years.
1990
25%
1993
23%
1992
22%
1991
21%
1994
19%
2018 → COVID-19 recession began 2020
18%
2005
17%
2003
16%
2000
14%
2010
13%
48 indicators measured, 34 not available for Qatar.
Change in real output from a year earlier.
1.8%
2025
Lower than 74% of years since 1951
Danger up from 69 a year ago
Median 6.57% · usual range -3.1% to 24.2%
The year before past crises: median 4.31%, from -10.7% before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 44.4% before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: Maddison Project 1950–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025
Share of the labour force out of work.
0.13%
2025
Lower than 89% of years since 1991
Danger about the same as a year ago (11)
Median 0.52% · usual range 0.13% to 0.87%
The year before past crises: median 0.28%, from 0.1% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 0.87% before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025
One-year change in the unemployment rate.
0 pp
2025
Higher than 62% of years since 1992
Danger about the same as a year ago (62)
Median 0 pp · usual range -0.08 pp to 0 pp
The year before past crises: median -0.02 pp, from -0.35 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0 pp before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2007 (-0.35 pp), 2008 (-0.21 pp), 2010 (+0.14 pp), 2011 (+0.11 pp), 2012 (-0.08 pp), 2013 (-0.2 pp), 2014 (-0.08 pp)
Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025
Gross investment relative to GDP. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
30.6% of GDP
2022
Higher than 50% of years since 1980
Median 30.6% of GDP · usual range 17.2% of GDP to 43.3% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 39.6% of GDP, from 17.9% of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 49.5% of GDP before the Blockade (2017)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1980–2022
Household spending after inflation, against a year earlier.
-10.5%
2020
Lower than 98% of years since 1997
Median 7.48% · usual range -1.33% to 22.4%
The year before past crises: median 6.98%, from 0.93% before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 20.1% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 1996–2020
Volume of exports of goods and services against a year earlier.
-1.55%
2020
Lower than 70% of years since 1981
Median 4.15% · usual range -8.94% to 27.2%
The year before past crises: median -0.46%, from -3.88% before the Blockade (2017) to 27.2% before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1981–2020
Consumer prices against a year earlier. Both high inflation and deflation count as the dangerous side.
0.6%
2025
Lower than 81% of years since 1980
Danger up from 46 a year ago
Median 2.68% · usual range -0.21% to 7.66%
The year before past crises: median 2.95%, from -0.67% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.8% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1979–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025
Growth of money and bank deposits over a year.
3.51%
2025
Lower than 79% of years since 1967
Danger down from 81 a year ago
Median 11.4% · usual range 0.76% to 39.6%
The year before past crises: median 9.52%, from -4.57% before the Blockade (2017) to 39.5% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil and gas price crash (2014)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1967–2025
Five-year change in private credit relative to GDP.
-12.1 pp of GDP
2025
Lower than 95% of years since 1975
Danger down from 72 a year ago
Median +6.33 pp of GDP · usual range -7.85 pp of GDP to +40 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +14.4 pp of GDP, from -34.5 pp of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to +54.5 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1970–2025
Private credit relative to GDP against its long-run trend (one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter, as the BIS computes it).
+2.39 pp of GDP
2025
Lower than 52% of years since 1979
Danger down from 50 a year ago
Median +2.62 pp of GDP · usual range -10.6 pp of GDP to +19.8 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +6.49 pp of GDP, from -13.4 pp of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to +24.6 pp of GDP before the Blockade (2017)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil and gas price crash (2014)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 77% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1970–2025
Loans to households and firms relative to GDP (bank loans in the history, total credit rescaled to it after).
127% of GDP
2025
Higher than 97% of years since 1970
Danger up from 94 a year ago
Median 36.5% of GDP · usual range 14.6% of GDP to 101% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 40.8% of GDP, from 28.8% of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 101% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2020 (139% of GDP)
Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1970–2025
Bank loans relative to bank deposits.
135%
2021
Higher than 99% of years since 1970
Median 74.9% · usual range 58.9% to 96.8%
The year before past crises: median 72.8%, from 62.6% before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 114% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1970–2021
General government gross debt.
42.5% of GDP
2025
Lower than 51% of years since 1990
Danger up from 46 a year ago
Median 42.6% of GDP · usual range 16.5% of GDP to 60.7% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 46.7% of GDP, from 9.4% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 62.1% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1990–2025
Government revenue minus spending; negative is a deficit.
-1% of GDP
2025
Lower than 65% of years since 1990
Danger up from 60 a year ago
Median 3.85% of GDP · usual range -8.95% of GDP to 13.8% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 1% of GDP, from -9.4% of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 19.3% of GDP before the Oil and gas price crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1990–2025
Five-year change in public debt relative to GDP.
-30.1 pp of GDP
2025
Lower than 82% of years since 1995
Danger down from 24 a year ago
Median +5.9 pp of GDP · usual range -37.8 pp of GDP to +36 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +19.5 pp of GDP, from -38.3 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +37.2 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1990–2025
Value of listed companies relative to GDP (World Bank).
82.1% of GDP
2025
Lower than 57% of years since 2007
Danger up from 23 a year ago
Median 88.1% of GDP · usual range 72.9% of GDP to 110% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 96.4% of GDP, from 76.8% of GDP before the Oil and gas price crash (2014) to 120% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Oil and gas price crash (2014)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 2007–2025
Balance of trade, income and transfers with the rest of the world; negative is a deficit.
14.8% of GDP
2025
Higher than 50% of years since 2011
Danger up from 37 a year ago
Median 14.8% of GDP · usual range -0.27% of GDP to 30.8% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 2.42% of GDP, from -5.45% of GDP before the Blockade (2017) to 30.4% of GDP before the Oil and gas price crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Oil and gas price crash (2014)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 2011–2025
Change in the price of a US dollar in local currency: positive means the currency weakened.
0%
2025
Higher than 56% of years since 1967
Danger about the same as a year ago (56)
Median 0% · usual range -0.62% to 0%
The year before past crises: median 0%, from 0% before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0% before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (PA.NUS.FCRF) 1966–2025
Central bank reserves measured in months of imports.
7.45 months of imports
2025
Higher than 97% of years since 2011
Danger down from 23 a year ago
Median 6.33 months of imports · usual range 3.79 months of imports to 6.8 months of imports
The year before past crises: median 5.95 months of imports, from 5.34 months of imports before the Blockade (2017) to 6.67 months of imports before the Oil and gas price crash (2014)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 2011–2025
Net inflows of foreign direct investment relative to GDP.
1.41% of GDP
2025
Higher than 69% of years since 1970
Danger down from 56 a year ago
Median 0.51% of GDP · usual range -0.28% of GDP to 3.76% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 0.32% of GDP, from -1.59% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 5.9% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025
How hostile supporters of opposing political camps are to each other (V-Dem experts; 0 = friendly, 4 = generally hostile).
0.73 of 4
2025
Lower than 63% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (37)
Median 0.87 of 4 · usual range 0.47 of 4 to 1.06 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.47 of 4, from 0.41 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0.68 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 19% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How frequent and large demonstrations, strikes and sit-ins were (V-Dem; 0 = virtually none, 4 = many large-scale).
0.18 of 4
2025
Higher than 56% of years since 1900
Danger down from 75 a year ago
Median 0.17 of 4 · usual range 0.12 of 4 to 0.38 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.1 of 4, from 0.05 of 4 before the Oil and gas price crash (2014) to 0.2 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 19% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1956 (0.89 of 4), 1960 (0.66 of 4), 1965 (0.52 of 4), 1966 (0.52 of 4), 1967 (0.52 of 4)
Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How often non-state actors used violence for political ends (V-Dem; 0 = not at all, 4 = often).
0.39 of 4
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (1)
Median 0.67 of 4 · usual range 0.52 of 4 to 0.8 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.52 of 4, from 0.52 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0.67 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 18% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Strength of movements that want to change the political system fundamentally (V-Dem; 0 = practically none, 4 = very strong).
0.02 of 4
2025
Lower than 92% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (8)
Median 0.07 of 4 · usual range 0.02 of 4 to 0.58 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.02 of 4, from 0.02 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0.07 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them separatist or autonomist (V-Dem).
0 of 4
2016
Lower than 58% of years since 1900
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.08 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 92% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2016
Five-year change in the V-Dem liberal democracy index (0-100); negative means it fell.
+0.8 points
2025
Higher than 92% of years since 1905
Danger up from 4 a year ago
Median 0 points · usual range -0.1 points to +0.7 points
The year before past crises: median -0.3 points, from -0.8 points before the Oil and gas price crash (2014) to +0.7 points before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1971 (+1.8 points), 1972 (+1.8 points), 1973 (+1.7 points), 1974 (+1.7 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How often "uncertainty" appears in country reports (World Uncertainty Index; Economic Policy Uncertainty for the euro area).
0.22
Q2 2026
Higher than 89% of years since 1971
Danger down from 96 a year ago
Median 0.06 · usual range 0 to 0.22
The year before past crises: median 0.07, from 0 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0.1 before the Blockade (2017)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED WUIQAT 1971–2026-04
Unemployment rate plus inflation.
0.73%
2025
Lower than 79% of years since 1991
Danger down from 27 a year ago
Median 2.83% · usual range -0.34% to 8.88%
The year before past crises: median 3.5%, from -0.57% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14.3% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1979–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025
Share of national income before taxes going to the richest 1% (World Inequality Database, with its estimates for gaps).
24.4%
2024
Higher than 86% of years since 1980
Danger about the same as a year ago (86)
Median 23% · usual range 23% to 24.4%
The year before past crises: median 23.7%, from 23% before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 24.4% before the Oil and gas price crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1980–2024
How much of the economy the state owns or directly controls (V-Dem; 0 = very little, 4 = virtually all).
2.76 of 4
2025
Lower than 57% of years since 1900
Median 2.84 of 4 · usual range 2.27 of 4 to 3.17 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.35 of 4, from 2.27 of 4 before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 2.5 of 4 before the Blockade (2017)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Size of the state: government spending relative to GDP. The long-run series cover central government only, so the level is lower than the familiar general-government figure.
26% of GDP
2024
Lower than 93% of years since 1991
Median 32.1% of GDP · usual range 27.6% of GDP to 55.1% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 32.5% of GDP, from 28.3% of GDP before the Oil and gas price crash (2014) to 47.7% of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1991–2024
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them leftist, socialist or communist (V-Dem).
0 of 4
2016
Higher than 50% of years since 1900
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2016
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them rightist or "party of order" (V-Dem).
0 of 4
2016
Higher than 50% of years since 1900
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2016
V-Dem political corruption index (0 = none, 100 = pervasive).
33.1 of 100
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (0)
Median 74.5 of 100 · usual range 40.6 of 100 to 76.4 of 100
The year before past crises: median 41 of 100, from 38.6 of 100 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 48.1 of 100 before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 30% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem rule-of-law index (0-100).
+6.2 points
2025
Higher than 94% of years since 1905
Danger down from 11 a year ago
Median 0 points · usual range -0.7 points to +5.5 points
The year before past crises: median -0.6 points, from -2.7 points before the Oil and gas price crash (2014) to +4.9 points before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1970 (+10.7 points), 1971 (+14.5 points), 1972 (+16 points), 1973 (+20.9 points), 1974 (+20.9 points), 1975 (+10.2 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem freedom of expression and alternative information index (0-100).
-3.3 points
2025
Lower than 97% of years since 1905
Danger about the same as a year ago (98)
Median 0 points · usual range -0.1 points to +0.9 points
The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -1.6 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +1.1 points before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1970 (+2.9 points), 1971 (+3 points), 1972 (+3.2 points), 1973 (+3.2 points), 1974 (+3.2 points), 1996 (+1.1 points), 1997 (+1.1 points), 2000 (+1.4 points), 2003 (+1.2 points), 2004 (+1.2 points), 2022 (-5 points), 2023 (-5.7 points), 2024 (-4 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How much the government represses civil society organizations (V-Dem; 0 = none, 4 = severely).
2.46 of 4
2025
Higher than 99% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (99)
Median 1.96 of 4 · usual range 1.83 of 4 to 2.16 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.14 of 4, from 1.96 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 2.21 of 4 before the Oil and gas price crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 86% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Coup attempts in the year (Powell & Thyne, via V-Dem).
0
2024
Lower than 52% of years since 1971
Danger about the same as a year ago (48)
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0 before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1971–2024
Deaths in armed conflicts the country is involved in (Uppsala Conflict Data Program, via Our World in Data).
0
2026
Lower than 51% of years since 1989
Danger down from 99 a year ago
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 0 before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026
Unemployment of 15-24-year-olds (ILO estimates via the World Bank).
0.56%
2025
Lower than 83% of years since 1991
Danger down from 24 a year ago
Median 1.48% · usual range 0.49% to 2.75%
The year before past crises: median 1.11%, from 0.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 2.76% before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025
People aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age.
2.04 per 100 workers
2025
Higher than 71% of years since 1960
Median 1.65 per 100 workers · usual range 1.27 per 100 workers to 4.27 per 100 workers
The year before past crises: median 1.34 per 100 workers, from 1.27 per 100 workers before the Blockade (2017) to 1.68 per 100 workers before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1960 (6.47 per 100 workers)
Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025
Crude oil price (WTI) against a year earlier. Both sharp rises and falls count as the dangerous side.
52.1%
Sep 2026
Higher than 95% of years since 1947
Danger up from 65 a year ago
Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%
The year before past crises: median -5.73%, from -12.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 9.47% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1974 (168%)
Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09
The US dollar against major currencies, against a year earlier.
-0.68%
Sep 2026
Lower than 77% of years since 1974
Danger about the same as a year ago (23)
Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%
The year before past crises: median 4.64%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 11.7% before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09
Expected stock market volatility implied by S&P 500 option prices (VIX).
15.8
Sep 2026
Lower than 67% of years since 1990
Danger about the same as a year ago (33)
Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6
The year before past crises: median 15.9, from 14.2 before the Oil and gas price crash (2014) to 22.4 before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Oil and gas price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09
IMF index of all commodity prices against a year earlier.
16.6%
Jul 2026
Higher than 70% of years since 1993
Danger up from 9 a year ago
Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%
The year before past crises: median -6.43%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014)
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07
IMF food price index against a year earlier.
4.78%
Jul 2026
Higher than 64% of years since 1993
Danger up from 27 a year ago
Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%
The year before past crises: median -0.34%, from -8.71% before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index (GDP-weighted, Baker, Bloom & Davis).
242
Jul 2026
Higher than 90% of years since 1997
Danger down from 100 a year ago
Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239
The year before past crises: median 129, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07
News coverage of wars, terrorism and international tensions since 1900 (Caldara & Iacoviello; 100 = the 1985-2019 average).
137
Sep 2026
Higher than 88% of years since 1900
Danger up from 80 a year ago
Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161
The year before past crises: median 77.2, from 39.7 before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 92.3 before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil and gas price crash (2014), Blockade (2017), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 19% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)
Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09
Gas prices and travel collapsed.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt cut trade and transport links for three and a half years.
Oil and LNG prices collapsed.
Property fell and the state bought bank equity and property loans.
Oil fell to about $10.
Oil halved.
