Built entirely by AI, analyses included. Not financial advice.
Country Outlook
Latest data Sep 2026 · computed 14 Oct 2026
History: Maddison Project GDP from 1950, World Bank from the 1960s-70s, IMF from 1980-2005
Data, scores and the AI report are updated once a month.
23%
estimated chance that an economic crisis starts within 2 years
36% of all its past years were followed by one
8 of the 14 past years that scored at least this high were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
49/100
Higher than 27% of years since 1993
Measures that published studies found often high before past crises: credit and debt growth, house and stock prices against their trend, the yield curve, interest-rate rises and external deficits. Low market volatility counts toward it.
Building up mostPrivate credit
90
Public debt
76
Stock market value
69
45/100
Higher than 21% of years since 1970
How far today's readings are from Oman's usual levels, across 41 indicators.
Stock market
69
Global environment
67
External
64
Private credit
42
Public finances
39
Economy
32
The build-up measures, each against Oman's own history. Each area starts with a fixed weight, adjusted by how it read before Oman's past crises.
Before 1 of the 2 economic crises that can be tested, the score was in the top quarter of the country's history (75th percentile or higher) in the 2 years before.
Of the 2 years it was that high outside a crisis, 2 (100%) were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
Ranking quality 86/100, where 50 is what chance would give (89 with every area weighted the same).
For comparison, the stress score ranked them 41/100.
| Crisis | Percentile before | Result |
|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) | 76 | High 2 years before |
| Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014) | 69 | Not high before |
How much today's readings look like the year before each crisis started.
Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
28%
Global financial crisis (2008)
21%
Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
20%
Oil price collapse of 1998
15%
COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
14%
2 of the 10 most similar past years were followed by a crisis within two years (Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), Global financial crisis (2008)), against 6% of all years.
2010
42%
2005
35%
1990
31%
2004
29%
1987
28%
2013 → Oil crash and fiscal crisis began 2014
28%
2006 → Global financial crisis began 2008
27%
2008
27%
1995
26%
2003
25%
48 indicators measured, 34 not available for Oman.
Change in real output from a year earlier.
2.4%
2025
Lower than 77% of years since 1951
Danger down from 79 a year ago
Median 6.28% · usual range 0.3% to 16.2%
The year before past crises: median 11.2%, from -1.13% before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 15.4% before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1967 (66.1%), 1968 (82%)
Sources: Maddison Project 1950–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025
Share of the labour force out of work.
3.25%
2025
Lower than 79% of years since 1991
Danger up from 19 a year ago
Median 4.01% · usual range 2.69% to 4.43%
The year before past crises: median 3.88%, from 2.05% before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 4.31% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 5% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025
One-year change in the unemployment rate.
+0.05 pp
2025
Higher than 66% of years since 1992
Danger up from 57 a year ago
Median -0.05 pp · usual range -0.2 pp to +0.22 pp
The year before past crises: median -0.07 pp, from -0.2 pp before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014) to +0.24 pp before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 19% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2022 (+1.4 pp)
Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025
Gross investment relative to GDP. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
24.9% of GDP
2024
Lower than 68% of years since 1967
Danger up from 16 a year ago
Median 27.6% of GDP · usual range 13.2% of GDP to 35.7% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 27.6% of GDP, from 15.5% of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 39.8% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1967–2024
Household spending after inflation, against a year earlier.
3.84%
2024
Lower than 63% of years since 1999
Danger up from 48 a year ago
Median 5.3% · usual range 0.78% to 11.7%
The year before past crises: median 3.08%, from -3.81% before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 19.3% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 1998–2024
Volume of exports of goods and services against a year earlier.
9.14%
2024
Higher than 75% of years since 1999
Danger down from 48 a year ago
Median 2.83% · usual range -3.79% to 15.7%
The year before past crises: median 1.94%, from -1.88% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 10.5% before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1999–2024
Consumer prices against a year earlier. Both high inflation and deflation count as the dangerous side.
0.97%
2025
Lower than 58% of years since 2001
Danger down from 48 a year ago
Median 1.05% · usual range -0.14% to 3.84%
The year before past crises: median 1.05%, from 0.49% before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 5.83% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2008 (12.4%)
Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 2000–2025
Growth of money and bank deposits over a year.
4.18%
2017
Lower than 83% of years since 1973
Median 9.86% · usual range 3.58% to 33.6%
The year before past crises: median 22.8%, from 8.49% before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014) to 34.7% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1973–2017
Five-year change in private credit relative to GDP.
-1.93 pp of GDP
2024
Lower than 76% of years since 1977
Danger down from 30 a year ago
Median +4.46 pp of GDP · usual range -5.5 pp of GDP to +20.5 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +7.16 pp of GDP, from -2.99 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +24.1 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 72% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1972–2024
Private credit relative to GDP against its long-run trend (one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter, as the BIS computes it).
-5.08 pp of GDP
2024
Lower than 87% of years since 1981
Danger up from 3 a year ago
Median -0.2 pp of GDP · usual range -5.26 pp of GDP to +10.7 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +0.29 pp of GDP, from -2.23 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +6.21 pp of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 74% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1972–2024
Loans to households and firms relative to GDP (bank loans in the history, total credit rescaled to it after).
63.2% of GDP
2024
Higher than 90% of years since 1972
Danger up from 86 a year ago
Median 26.9% of GDP · usual range 13.6% of GDP to 62.8% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 31.3% of GDP, from 19.5% of GDP before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 65.1% of GDP before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 73% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1972–2024
Bank loans relative to bank deposits.
134%
2019
Higher than 91% of years since 1972
Median 116% · usual range 90.3% to 133%
The year before past crises: median 121%, from 89% before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 134% before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1972–2019
General government gross debt.
34.7% of GDP
2025
Higher than 76% of years since 1990
Danger down from 79 a year ago
Median 21.8% of GDP · usual range 4.5% of GDP to 43.2% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 12.8% of GDP, from 4.4% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 52.5% of GDP before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1990–2025
Government revenue minus spending; negative is a deficit.
0.6% of GDP
2025
Lower than 54% of years since 1990
Danger up from 46 a year ago
Median 2.5% of GDP · usual range -9% of GDP to 10.9% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 3.8% of GDP, from -4.8% of GDP before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 10.5% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 100% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1990–2025
Five-year change in public debt relative to GDP.
-33.2 pp of GDP
2025
Lower than 98% of years since 1995
Danger down from 8 a year ago
Median -1.4 pp of GDP · usual range -14.9 pp of GDP to +35.5 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median -0.4 pp of GDP, from -11.5 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +48.5 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1990–2025
Value of listed companies relative to GDP (World Bank).
37.7% of GDP
2025
Higher than 69% of years since 1993
Danger up from 53 a year ago
Median 29.5% of GDP · usual range 17.5% of GDP to 43% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 41.2% of GDP, from 19.4% of GDP before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 55.2% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1993–2025
Balance of trade, income and transfers with the rest of the world; negative is a deficit.
-1.09% of GDP
2025
Lower than 66% of years since 1974
Danger up from 45 a year ago
Median 3.17% of GDP · usual range -13.1% of GDP to 13.1% of GDP
The year before past crises: median -0.1% of GDP, from -4.92% of GDP before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 5.88% of GDP before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 1974–2025
Change in the price of a US dollar in local currency: positive means the currency weakened.
0%
2025
Higher than 52% of years since 1961
Danger about the same as a year ago (52)
Median 0% · usual range 0% to 0%
The year before past crises: median 0%, from 0% before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 0% before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 19% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (PA.NUS.FCRF) 1960–2025
Central bank reserves measured in months of imports.
3.74 months of imports
2024
Lower than 62% of years since 1974
Danger up from 60 a year ago
Median 4.07 months of imports · usual range 2.96 months of imports to 5.48 months of imports
The year before past crises: median 4.08 months of imports, from 3.21 months of imports before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 5.1 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1974–2024
Net inflows of foreign direct investment relative to GDP.
6.16% of GDP
2025
Higher than 90% of years since 1970
Danger up from 5 a year ago
Median 1.63% of GDP · usual range 0.26% of GDP to 6.14% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 1.79% of GDP, from 0.36% of GDP before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 6.9% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025
How hostile supporters of opposing political camps are to each other (V-Dem experts; 0 = friendly, 4 = generally hostile).
0.22 of 4
2025
Lower than 94% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (6)
Median 1.64 of 4 · usual range 0.33 of 4 to 1.79 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.4 of 4, from 0.4 of 4 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 1.1 of 4 before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How frequent and large demonstrations, strikes and sit-ins were (V-Dem; 0 = virtually none, 4 = many large-scale).
0.12 of 4
2025
Lower than 72% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (28)
Median 0.21 of 4 · usual range 0.11 of 4 to 0.64 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.26 of 4, from 0.08 of 4 before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 0.26 of 4 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 20% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1965 (1.01 of 4), 1966 (1.01 of 4), 1967 (1.01 of 4), 1968 (1.01 of 4), 1969 (1.01 of 4), 1970 (1.22 of 4), 1971 (1.17 of 4), 1972 (1.17 of 4), 1973 (1.17 of 4), 1974 (1.17 of 4), 1975 (1.17 of 4), 2011 (1.59 of 4)
Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How often non-state actors used violence for political ends (V-Dem; 0 = not at all, 4 = often).
0.19 of 4
2025
Lower than 98% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (2)
Median 1.01 of 4 · usual range 0.35 of 4 to 1.56 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.35 of 4, from 0.35 of 4 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 0.56 of 4 before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 24% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Strength of movements that want to change the political system fundamentally (V-Dem; 0 = practically none, 4 = very strong).
0.67 of 4
2025
Higher than 90% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (90)
Median 0.57 of 4 · usual range 0.17 of 4 to 0.67 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.32 of 4, from 0.23 of 4 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 0.65 of 4 before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them separatist or autonomist (V-Dem).
0 of 4
2025
Lower than 74% of years since 1850
Danger down from 83 a year ago
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.24 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.11 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 0.16 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem liberal democracy index (0-100); negative means it fell.
+0.3 points
2025
Higher than 68% of years since 1905
Danger down from 93 a year ago
Median +0.1 points · usual range -0.1 points to +1.8 points
The year before past crises: median +0.2 points, from +0.1 points before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to +1.3 points before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1970 (+2.2 points), 1971 (+2.7 points), 1972 (+2.7 points), 1973 (+2.7 points), 1974 (+3.2 points), 2001 (+2.5 points), 2002 (+3.6 points), 2003 (+3.7 points), 2004 (+3.7 points), 2005 (+2.1 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How often "uncertainty" appears in country reports (World Uncertainty Index; Economic Policy Uncertainty for the euro area).
0.58
Q2 2026
Higher than 98% of years since 1971
Danger about the same as a year ago (100)
Median 0.07 · usual range 0 to 0.27
The year before past crises: median 0.04, from 0 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 0.14 before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED WUIOMN 1971–2026-04
Unemployment rate plus inflation.
4.22%
2025
Lower than 58% of years since 2001
Danger up from 26 a year ago
Median 4.47% · usual range 3% to 7.97%
The year before past crises: median 4.61%, from 2.54% before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 10.1% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 2000–2025
Share of national income before taxes going to the richest 1% (World Inequality Database, with its estimates for gaps).
19.9%
2024
Higher than 50% of years since 1980
Danger about the same as a year ago (50)
Median 19.9% · usual range 19.9% to 19.9%
The year before past crises: median 19.9%, from 19.9% before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 19.9% before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1980–2024
How much of the economy the state owns or directly controls (V-Dem; 0 = very little, 4 = virtually all).
2.05 of 4
2025
Higher than 51% of years since 1850
Median 2.05 of 4 · usual range 1.83 of 4 to 2.21 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.17 of 4, from 2.05 of 4 before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014) to 2.17 of 4 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Size of the state: government spending relative to GDP. The long-run series cover central government only, so the level is lower than the familiar general-government figure.
28.7% of GDP
2024
Lower than 93% of years since 1990
Median 34.5% of GDP · usual range 30.3% of GDP to 40.9% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 35.4% of GDP, from 30.7% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 39.3% of GDP before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1990–2024
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them leftist, socialist or communist (V-Dem).
0.17 of 4
2025
Higher than 91% of years since 1850
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.16 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.11 of 4, from 0.07 of 4 before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014) to 0.16 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1965 (0.53 of 4), 1966 (0.53 of 4), 1967 (0.53 of 4), 1968 (0.53 of 4), 1969 (0.53 of 4), 1970 (0.62 of 4), 1971 (0.62 of 4), 1972 (0.62 of 4), 1973 (0.62 of 4)
Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them rightist or "party of order" (V-Dem).
0.17 of 4
2025
Higher than 95% of years since 1850
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 0.16 of 4 before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
V-Dem political corruption index (0 = none, 100 = pervasive).
25.3 of 100
2025
Lower than 97% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (3)
Median 51.2 of 100 · usual range 27.2 of 100 to 53 of 100
The year before past crises: median 27.2 of 100, from 25 of 100 before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 37.5 of 100 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 22% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem rule-of-law index (0-100).
-0.7 points
2025
Lower than 86% of years since 1855
Danger down from 89 a year ago
Median 0 points · usual range -0.9 points to +3.1 points
The year before past crises: median -0.1 points, from -1.5 points before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to +2.9 points before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1900 (-5.5 points), 1901 (-5.5 points), 1902 (-5.5 points), 1903 (-5.5 points), 1904 (-5.5 points), 1970 (+15.4 points), 1971 (+18.3 points), 1972 (+18.9 points), 1973 (+18.9 points), 1974 (+22.9 points), 1975 (+7.5 points), 1976 (+6.7 points), 1977 (+8 points), 1978 (+8.8 points), 1979 (+4.8 points), 1980 (+5.2 points), 2000 (+8.8 points), 2001 (+7.4 points), 2002 (+6.8 points), 2003 (+5.4 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem freedom of expression and alternative information index (0-100).
+0.8 points
2025
Higher than 78% of years since 1905
Danger about the same as a year ago (22)
Median 0 points · usual range -0.5 points to +2 points
The year before past crises: median +0.4 points, from 0 points before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +5.1 points before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 25% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2012 (+4.8 points), 2013 (+5.1 points), 2014 (+5.4 points), 2015 (+5.9 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How much the government represses civil society organizations (V-Dem; 0 = none, 4 = severely).
2.65 of 4
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (1)
Median 3.56 of 4 · usual range 2.71 of 4 to 3.56 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.8 of 4, from 2.68 of 4 before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014) to 2.86 of 4 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 27% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Coup attempts in the year (Powell & Thyne, via V-Dem).
0
2024
Lower than 51% of years since 1950
Danger about the same as a year ago (49)
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986) to 0 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024
Deaths in armed conflicts the country is involved in (Uppsala Conflict Data Program, via Our World in Data).
2
2026
Higher than 99% of years since 1989
Danger up from 49 a year ago
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 0 before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026
Unemployment of 15-24-year-olds (ILO estimates via the World Bank).
13.9%
2025
Higher than 64% of years since 1991
Danger up from 36 a year ago
Median 13.6% · usual range 11.8% to 15.2%
The year before past crises: median 13.6%, from 9.02% before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 15.5% before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2018 (7.85%), 2019 (9.02%), 2021 (9.1%)
Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025
People aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age.
3.68 per 100 workers
2025
Lower than 84% of years since 1960
Median 4.27 per 100 workers · usual range 3.54 per 100 workers to 6.49 per 100 workers
The year before past crises: median 3.86 per 100 workers, from 3.41 per 100 workers before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014) to 5.32 per 100 workers before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025
Crude oil price (WTI) against a year earlier. Both sharp rises and falls count as the dangerous side.
52.1%
Sep 2026
Higher than 95% of years since 1947
Danger up from 65 a year ago
Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%
The year before past crises: median -4.45%, from -12.3% before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 9.47% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1974 (168%)
Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09
The US dollar against major currencies, against a year earlier.
-0.68%
Sep 2026
Lower than 77% of years since 1974
Danger about the same as a year ago (23)
Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%
The year before past crises: median 4.65%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 11.7% before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09
Expected stock market volatility implied by S&P 500 option prices (VIX).
15.8
Sep 2026
Lower than 67% of years since 1990
Danger about the same as a year ago (33)
Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6
The year before past crises: median 16.4, from 14.2 before the Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014) to 22.4 before the Oil price collapse of 1998
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 15% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09
IMF index of all commodity prices against a year earlier.
16.6%
Jul 2026
Higher than 70% of years since 1993
Danger up from 9 a year ago
Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%
The year before past crises: median -4.72%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020) to 13.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07
IMF food price index against a year earlier.
4.78%
Jul 2026
Higher than 64% of years since 1993
Danger up from 27 a year ago
Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%
The year before past crises: median -1.7%, from -8.71% before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index (GDP-weighted, Baker, Bloom & Davis).
242
Jul 2026
Higher than 90% of years since 1997
Danger down from 100 a year ago
Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239
The year before past crises: median 104, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07
News coverage of wars, terrorism and international tensions since 1900 (Caldara & Iacoviello; 100 = the 1985-2019 average).
137
Sep 2026
Higher than 88% of years since 1900
Danger up from 80 a year ago
Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161
The year before past crises: median 70, from 39.7 before the Oil price collapse of 1998 to 92.3 before the Oil collapse and devaluation (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil collapse and devaluation (1986), Oil price collapse of 1998, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil crash and fiscal crisis (2014), COVID-19 and debt squeeze (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 16% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)
Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09
Public debt passed 60% of GDP and the government cut spending.
Oil fell 70%; deficits passed 15% of GDP and Oman lost its investment-grade rating.
Stocks and property fell.
Oil fell to about $10.
Oil halved and the rial was devalued about 10%.
