Norway

Lower than 75% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 73 a year ago

Median 2.83% · usual range -0.12% to 5.76%

The year before past crises: median 2.31%, from 0.79% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 17.3% before the Post-war banking crisis (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 9 crises: Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2021–2025

Higher than 67% of years since 1904

→Danger about the same as a year ago (69)

Median 3.06% · usual range 1.4% to 7.06%

The year before past crises: median 2.96%, from 1.18% before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to 7% before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Post-war banking crisis (1920), Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 73% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1904–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTNOM156S 2021–2026-07

Lower than 67% of years since 1905

↓Danger down from 82 a year ago

Median +0.06 pp · usual range -0.96 pp to +0.84 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.05 pp, from -1.1 pp before the World War II occupation (1940) to +0.3 pp before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 8 crises: World War II occupation (1940), Oil price collapse (1986), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1921 (+5.1 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1904–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTNOM156S 2021–2026-07

Higher than 53% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 14 a year ago

Median 23.3% of GDP · usual range 15.7% of GDP to 35.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 27.5% of GDP, from 18.9% of GDP before the Kristiania crash (1899) to 35.8% of GDP before the Post-war banking crisis (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 9 crises: Banking crisis of 1931

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 51% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 71 a year ago

Median 2.74% · usual range -0.79% to 5.77%

The year before past crises: median 4.4%, from -0.81% before the Nordic banking crisis (1988) to 24.1% before the Post-war banking crisis (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 9 crises: Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Oil price collapse (1986), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1919 (24.1%), 1921 (-14.9%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2021–2025

Lower than 52% of years since 1971

↑Danger up from 28 a year ago

Median 2.41% · usual range -0.5% to 8.22%

The year before past crises: median 0.97%, from -1.56% before the Oil price crash (2014) to 7.32% before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1971–2025

Higher than 58% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 21 a year ago

Median 2.48% · usual range -2.76% to 9.13%

The year before past crises: median 2.17%, from -2.78% before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 8.73% before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1917 (24.2%), 1918 (40.5%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED NORCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 67% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 21 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -0.95 pp to +0.89 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.28 pp, from -1.04 pp before the Banking crisis of 1931 to +1.77 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1977 (+3.6 pp), 1993 (-3.82 pp), 2009 (-3.5 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01NOM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 62% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 30 a year ago

Median 4.6% · usual range 2.31% to 9.38%

The year before past crises: median 4.5%, from 1.13% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14.1% before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Banking crisis of 1931, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01NOM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 58% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 22 a year ago

Median +1.95 pp · usual range -2.92 pp to +8.22 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.56 pp, from -1.23 pp before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to +7.77 pp before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), World War II occupation (1940)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (-34.5 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01NOM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED NORCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Lower than 70% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 73 a year ago

Median 6.07% · usual range -0.3% to 13.2%

The year before past crises: median 7.72%, from -0.31% before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 16.3% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1916 (43.5%), 1917 (44.4%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 2021–2024

Lower than 99% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 10 a year ago

Median +4.42 pp of GDP · usual range -7.67 pp of GDP to +17 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +9.67 pp of GDP, from -24.8 pp of GDP before the World War II occupation (1940) to +29.3 pp of GDP before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 9 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 73% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QNOPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 88% of years since 1978

↑Danger up from 83 a year ago

Median 61.6% of GDP · usual range 41% of GDP to 92.8% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 69.8% of GDP, from 47.2% of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 96.5% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1978–2020 · FRED QNOHAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 90% of years since 1879

↓Danger down from 12 a year ago

Median -0.88 pp of GDP · usual range -8.81 pp of GDP to +7.52 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +3.2 pp of GDP, from -10.7 pp of GDP before the World War II occupation (1940) to +17.6 pp of GDP before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 9 crises: World War II occupation (1940)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 75% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QNOPAM770A 2021–2025

Higher than 96% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (96)

Median 69.6% of GDP · usual range 41.7% of GDP to 108% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 87.1% of GDP, from 58.4% of GDP before the World War II occupation (1940) to 137% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 81% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QNOPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 83% of years since 1978

↓Danger down from 85 a year ago

Median 30.6% of GDP · usual range 18.2% of GDP to 39.6% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 34.1% of GDP, from 20.6% of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 40.3% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 78% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1978–2020 · FRED QNONAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 52% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (52)

Median 8.09 % of assets · usual range 4.65 % of assets to 12.6 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 8.26 % of assets, from 3.99 % of assets before the Nordic banking crisis (1988) to 14.4 % of assets before the Post-war banking crisis (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 2009

↓Danger down from 21 a year ago

Median 1 % of loans · usual range 0.42 % of loans to 1.52 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 1.07 % of loans, from 0.8 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.34 % of loans before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2009–2025

Lower than 59% of years since 1870

Median 100% · usual range 74.8% to 127%

The year before past crises: median 110%, from 74.7% before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 139% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 2021–2021

Higher than 96% of years since 1999

↑Danger up from 93 a year ago

Median 14.7 % of income · usual range 11.2 % of income to 17.3 % of income

The year before past crises: median 15.3 % of income, from 14.9 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 15.4 % of income before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 96% of years since 1999

→Danger about the same as a year ago (96)

Median 24.7 % of income · usual range 21.6 % of income to 27.2 % of income

The year before past crises: median 23.9 % of income, from 23.7 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 26.1 % of income before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 98% of years since 1880

→Danger about the same as a year ago (97)

Median 27.9% of GDP · usual range 16.8% of GDP to 41.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 32.5% of GDP, from 16.3% of GDP before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to 50.3% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Higher than 89% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 8 a year ago

Median -0.24% of GDP · usual range -2.11% of GDP to 11.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.26% of GDP, from -2.11% of GDP before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to 17.6% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2006 (18% of GDP), 2007 (17.6% of GDP), 2008 (19.7% of GDP), 2022 (25.1% of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2021–2025

Higher than 83% of years since 1885

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median +1.17 pp of GDP · usual range -12.5 pp of GDP to +11.7 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.09 pp of GDP, from -17.7 pp of GDP before the Oil price crash (2014) to +16.1 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Higher than 57% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 52 a year ago

Median -0.61 pp · usual range -7.44 pp to +5.42 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.47 pp, from -18.5 pp before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to +3.03 pp before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), World War II occupation (1940), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (-30.8 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01NOM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED NORCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2021–2025

Lower than 78% of years since 1972

Median 4.5 % of spending · usual range 0.89 % of spending to 6.92 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 6.87 % of spending, from 0.84 % of spending before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 8.55 % of spending before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1972–2023

Lower than 60% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 32 a year ago

Median 4.58% · usual range 2.65% to 7.34%

The year before past crises: median 4.78%, from 1.29% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.6% before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1982 (13.2%), 1983 (12.9%), 1986 (13.5%), 1987 (13.6%), 1988 (13%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01NOM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 87% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 89 a year ago

Median -0.01 pp · usual range -0.57 pp to +0.61 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.2 pp, from -0.31 pp before the Banking crisis of 1931 to +0.85 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1941 (-1.72 pp), 1980 (+1.68 pp), 1981 (+2.05 pp), 1989 (-2.13 pp), 1993 (-3.27 pp), 2003 (-1.83 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01NOM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 50% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 54 a year ago

Median -0.11 pp · usual range -1.4 pp to +1.13 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.15 pp, from -1.15 pp before the Kristiania crash (1899) to +0.75 pp before the World War II occupation (1940)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 9 crises: Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01NOM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED IR3TIB01NOM156N 2021–2025

Lower than 59% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 36 a year ago

Median +1.92 pp · usual range -2.58 pp to +7.47 pp

The year before past crises: median +3.31 pp, from -1.16 pp before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to +7.83 pp before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (-34.9 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01NOM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED NORCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 92% of years since 1882

↓Danger down from 21 a year ago

Median 1.17% · usual range -18.2% to 25.2%

The year before past crises: median -1.32%, from -25.1% before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to 25.3% before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 9 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01NOM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED NORCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 98% of years since 1889

↑Danger up from 92 a year ago

Median 2.47% · usual range -39.6% to 44.3%

The year before past crises: median 15%, from -54.1% before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to 79.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 66% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01NOM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED NORCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Lower than 72% of years since 1986

↑Danger up from 18 a year ago

Median 14.8% · usual range 8.15% to 32.1%

The year before past crises: median 11.7%, from 7.01% before the Oil price crash (2014) to 42.3% before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1881–2020 · FRED SPASTT01NOM661N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 85% of years since 1881

→Danger about the same as a year ago (16)

Median -10.8% · usual range -38.4% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -1.32%, from -55.4% before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to 0% before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01NOM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED NORCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 91% of years since 1981

Median 39.5% of GDP · usual range 12.8% of GDP to 69.2% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 49.1% of GDP, from 12.7% of GDP before the Nordic banking crisis (1988) to 87% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1981–2019

Lower than 55% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 21 a year ago

Median 1.88% · usual range -9.09% to 11.4%

The year before past crises: median 1.88%, from -2.71% before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 13.2% before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QNOR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Lower than 61% of years since 1878

↓Danger down from 41 a year ago

Median 6.71% · usual range -17.1% to 31.4%

The year before past crises: median 25.3%, from -29.6% before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to 58.8% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Post-war banking crisis (1920), World War II occupation (1940)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 74% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QNOR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Higher than 94% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 4 a year ago

Median -0.06% of GDP · usual range -5.78% of GDP to 11% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.48% of GDP, from -17.3% of GDP before the Post-war banking crisis (1920) to 12% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 9 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2021–2025

Lower than 88% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 17 a year ago

Median 0.01% · usual range -9.22% to 12.1%

The year before past crises: median 0.84%, from -16.6% before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 36.7% before the Post-war banking crisis (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 9 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1919 (36.7%), 1920 (39.6%), 1923 (26.6%), 1925 (-25.9%), 1931 (45.3%), 1933 (-34.1%), 1946 (48.4%), 2002 (-22.7%), 2008 (29.4%), 2014 (22.2%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CCUSMA02NOM618N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 50% of years since 2002

↑Danger up from 33 a year ago

Median -3.16% · usual range -13.4% to 4.06%

The year before past crises: median -0.91%, from -9.48% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 3.02% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED RBNOBIS 1994–2026-07

Lower than 54% of years since 1975

↓Danger down from 56 a year ago

Median 4.48 months of imports · usual range 3.04 months of imports to 5.75 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 4.69 months of imports, from 3.79 months of imports before the Oil price crash (2014) to 6.6 months of imports before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 75% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1975–2025

Lower than 97% of years since 1970

↑Danger up from 24 a year ago

Median 1.36% of GDP · usual range -0.4% of GDP to 3.77% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 0.2% of GDP, from -0.65% of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 6.08% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Lower than 73% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (27)

Median 0.9 of 4 · usual range 0.34 of 4 to 2.42 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.9 of 4, from 0.34 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 2.88 of 4 before the Post-war banking crisis (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 8 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 72% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 57% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 54 a year ago

Median 0.61 of 4 · usual range 0.34 of 4 to 2 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.61 of 4, from 0.4 of 4 before the Oil price crash (2014) to 2.46 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 8 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 84% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (16)

Median 0.81 of 4 · usual range 0.71 of 4 to 1.82 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.18 of 4, from 0.46 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 1.82 of 4 before the Post-war banking crisis (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 8 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1940 (3.38 of 4), 1941 (3.57 of 4), 1942 (3.57 of 4), 1943 (3.76 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 77% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 0.58 of 4 · usual range 0.14 of 4 to 1.82 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.21 of 4, from 0.14 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 2.02 of 4 before the World War II occupation (1940)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Kristiania crash (1899) to 0 of 4 before the Kristiania crash (1899)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 52% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 92 a year ago

Median +0.7 points · usual range -0.2 points to +6 points

The year before past crises: median +0.1 points, from -1.4 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +3.8 points before the Kristiania crash (1899)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Banking crisis of 1931

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1914 (+14.1 points), 1915 (+13.8 points), 1916 (+14.1 points), 1917 (+13.8 points), 1918 (+14.1 points), 1940 (-43.8 points), 1941 (-47.2 points), 1942 (-56.1 points), 1943 (-56.3 points), 1944 (-56 points), 1946 (+53 points), 1947 (+61.8 points), 1948 (+62.5 points), 1949 (+62.6 points), 1950 (+50.5 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 62% of years since 1955

↓Danger down from 87 a year ago

Median 0.13 · usual range 0.04 to 0.34

The year before past crises: median 0.08, from 0.01 before the Nordic banking crisis (1988) to 0.2 before the Oil price crash (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUINOR 1955–2026-04

Higher than 54% of years since 1904

→Danger about the same as a year ago (56)

Median 6.63% · usual range 2.45% to 13.2%

The year before past crises: median 6.42%, from 3.22% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 10.8% before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Banking crisis of 1931, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (41.5%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTNOM156S 2021–2026-07 · FRED NORCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Lower than 62% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (38)

Median 10.2% · usual range 7.59% to 24.2%

The year before past crises: median 12.1%, from 5.66% before the Nordic banking crisis (1988) to 25% before the Kristiania crash (1899)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 7 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Lower than 66% of years since 1850

Median 1.3 of 4 · usual range 0.64 of 4 to 1.51 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.3 of 4, from 0.64 of 4 before the Kristiania crash (1899) to 1.36 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 96% of years since 1870

Median 21.4% of GDP · usual range 6.04% of GDP to 38.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 32.4% of GDP, from 8.12% of GDP before the Kristiania crash (1899) to 41.1% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF Public Finances in Modern History 2021–2024

Lower than 86% of years since 1850

Median 0.08 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 1.01 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.05 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Kristiania crash (1899) to 1.82 of 4 before the Post-war banking crisis (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 60% of years since 1850

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.18 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.02 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Kristiania crash (1899) to 1.01 of 4 before the World War II occupation (1940)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 60% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (40)

Median 2.2 of 100 · usual range 0.6 of 100 to 2.5 of 100

The year before past crises: median 0.8 of 100, from 0.6 of 100 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 2.5 of 100 before the Kristiania crash (1899)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 57% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 94 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range 0 points to +0.4 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -0.3 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +0.3 points before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Kristiania crash (1899), Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II occupation (1940), Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 59% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 89 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -1.3 points to +3.6 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -1.9 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +1.6 points before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1855 (+14.2 points), 1856 (+14.2 points), 1940 (-59.6 points), 1941 (-61.3 points), 1942 (-62.7 points), 1943 (-62.7 points), 1944 (-61.7 points), 1945 (+15.9 points), 1946 (+63.9 points), 1947 (+65.3 points), 1948 (+66 points), 1949 (+66.1 points), 1950 (+47 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 73% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (27)

Median 0.55 of 4 · usual range 0.06 of 4 to 0.83 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.2 of 4, from 0.06 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0.83 of 4 before the Post-war banking crisis (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1850 (3.61 of 4), 1851 (3.61 of 4), 1940 (2.54 of 4), 1941 (2.54 of 4), 1942 (2.54 of 4), 1943 (2.54 of 4), 1944 (2.54 of 4), 1945 (2.54 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0 before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Higher than 50% of years since 1989

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 85% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 87 a year ago

Median 0.04 % of articles · usual range 0.01 % of articles to 0.12 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.04 % of articles, from 0.02 % of articles before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 0.34 % of articles before the World War II occupation (1940)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Post-war banking crisis (1920), Banking crisis of 1931, Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (0.21 % of articles), 1917 (0.21 % of articles), 1939 (0.34 % of articles), 1940 (1.02 % of articles), 1941 (0.42 % of articles), 1942 (0.31 % of articles), 1943 (0.36 % of articles), 1944 (0.36 % of articles), 1945 (0.21 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Higher than 90% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 67 a year ago

Median 11.2% · usual range 8.39% to 13.3%

The year before past crises: median 9.04%, from 7.34% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 9.81% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 29% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 23.5 per 100 workers · usual range 19.5 per 100 workers to 26.4 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 24.5 per 100 workers, from 22.1 per 100 workers before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 26.7 per 100 workers before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 3.96%, from -12.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 27.4% before the Nordic banking crisis (1988)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 1.13%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 11.7% before the Oil price collapse (1986)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 15.4, from 14.2 before the Oil price crash (2014) to 17.5 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 25% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median -3.01%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median -0.34%, from -3.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 129, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 85.1, from 43 before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 191 before the World War II occupation (1940)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Banking crisis of 1931, Oil price collapse (1986), Nordic banking crisis (1988), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price crash (2014), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 24% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09