Built entirely by AI, analyses included. Not financial advice.
Country Outlook
Latest data Sep 2026 · computed 14 Oct 2026
History: Maddison Project GDP from 1850, World Bank from 1960, IMF from 1980
Data, scores and the AI report are updated once a month.
5%
estimated chance that an economic crisis starts within 2 years
13% of all its past years were followed by one
4 of the 29 past years that scored at least this high were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
37/100
Higher than 8% of years since 1989
Measures that published studies found often high before past crises: credit and debt growth, house and stock prices against their trend, the yield curve, interest-rate rises and external deficits. Low market volatility counts toward it.
Building up mostStock market volatility
93
Credit-to-GDP gap
83
Public debt
81
47/100
Higher than 37% of years since 1919
How far today's readings are from New Zealand's usual levels, across 59 indicators.
Public finances
80
Stock market
67
Global environment
67
Private credit
45
Inflation and policy
39
Economy
37
External
26
Housing
12
Bond market
6
The build-up measures, each against New Zealand's own history. Each area starts with a fixed weight, adjusted by how it read before New Zealand's past crises.
Before 1 of the 2 economic crises that can be tested, the score was in the top quarter of the country's history (75th percentile or higher) in the 2 years before.
Of the 4 years it was that high outside a crisis, 2 (50%) were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
Ranking quality 67/100, where 50 is what chance would give (71 with every area weighted the same).
For comparison, the stress score ranked them 45/100.
| Crisis | Percentile before | Result |
|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 recession (2020) | 50 | Not high before |
| Finance company collapses and recession (2007) | 75 | High 2 years before |
How much today's readings look like the year before each crisis started.
COVID-19 recession (2020)
20%
Currency crisis of 1984
17%
Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
16%
Great Depression (1929)
3%
Wool price collapse (1967)
2%
1 of the 10 most similar past years were followed by a crisis within two years (COVID-19 recession (2020)), against 9% of all years.
2017
31%
2021
28%
2014
23%
1951
22%
1979
22%
2013
21%
2019 → COVID-19 recession began 2020
20%
2011
20%
2010
19%
2012
19%
66 indicators measured, 16 not available for New Zealand.
Change in real output from a year earlier.
0.3%
2025
Lower than 78% of years since 1871
Danger down from 83 a year ago
Median 2.95% · usual range -2.46% to 10.5%
The year before past crises: median 3.46%, from 2.1% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to 11.3% before the Long Depression (1879)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Long Depression (1879), Bank of New Zealand rescue (1893), Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: Maddison Project 1850–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025
Share of the labour force out of work.
5.3%
2025
Lower than 52% of years since 1980
Danger up from 40 a year ago
Median 5.35% · usual range 3.85% to 7.85%
The year before past crises: median 4.15%, from 3.9% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 6.2% before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 17% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2025
One-year change in the unemployment rate.
+0.5 pp
2025
Higher than 72% of years since 1981
Danger down from 87 a year ago
Median -0.1 pp · usual range -0.86 pp to +1.3 pp
The year before past crises: median +0.2 pp, from -0.2 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +1.8 pp before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2025
Gross investment relative to GDP. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
23.1% of GDP
2024
Lower than 63% of years since 1970
Danger about the same as a year ago (26)
Median 23.4% of GDP · usual range 20.7% of GDP to 27% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 24.5% of GDP, from 23.8% of GDP before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 26.9% of GDP before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1970–2024
Household spending after inflation, against a year earlier.
0.01%
2024
Lower than 84% of years since 1971
Danger up from 73 a year ago
Median 2.86% · usual range -0.66% to 5.75%
The year before past crises: median 2.98%, from 2.52% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 4.12% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 1970–2024
Volume of exports of goods and services against a year earlier.
3.35%
2024
Lower than 53% of years since 1971
Danger up from 10 a year ago
Median 3.41% · usual range -0.38% to 8.56%
The year before past crises: median 4.03%, from -0.25% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 6.09% before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 81% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2020 (-17.6%)
Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1971–2024
Consumer prices against a year earlier. Both high inflation and deflation count as the dangerous side.
2.84%
2025
Lower than 55% of years since 1961
Danger up from 6 a year ago
Median 3.37% · usual range 1.2% to 14.6%
The year before past crises: median 3.37%, from 1.62% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.2% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 28% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
One-year change in the short-term interest rate.
-0.12 pp
Aug 2026
Higher than 51% of years since 1975
Danger up from 16 a year ago
Median -0.13 pp · usual range -3.24 pp to +2.27 pp
The year before past crises: median -2.17 pp, from -4.23 pp before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to +0.43 pp before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1985 (+8.28 pp)
Sources: FRED IR3TIB01NZM156N 1974–2026-08
Three-month money-market rate, or the closest short-term rate available. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
2.98%
Aug 2026
Lower than 81% of years since 1974
Danger up from 54 a year ago
Median 6.92% · usual range 2.36% to 15.2%
The year before past crises: median 10.3%, from 1.52% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 19.1% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Currency crisis of 1984, Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED IR3TIB01NZM156N 1974–2026-08
Short-term interest rate minus inflation. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
+0.14 pp
Aug 2026
Lower than 73% of years since 1974
Danger about the same as a year ago (46)
Median +2.97 pp · usual range -1.23 pp to +7.33 pp
The year before past crises: median +4.96 pp, from -0.1 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +5.86 pp before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED IR3TIB01NZM156N 1974–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
Growth of money and bank deposits over a year.
4.14%
2025
Lower than 73% of years since 1961
Danger down from 50 a year ago
Median 8.72% · usual range 0.41% to 20.2%
The year before past crises: median 6.61%, from 4.48% before the Wool price collapse (1967) to 24.9% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1988 (109%)
Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1961–2025
Five-year change in private credit relative to GDP.
-11.9 pp of GDP
Q4 2025
Lower than 57% of years since 2019
Danger about the same as a year ago (43)
Median -7.22 pp of GDP · usual range -14.4 pp of GDP to +6.71 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +6.44 pp of GDP, from +6.44 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +6.44 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 1 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 2014–2025-10
Debt of households, mostly mortgages, relative to GDP.
91.1% of GDP
Q4 2025
Higher than 74% of years since 1991
Danger up from 63 a year ago
Median 87.2% of GDP · usual range 41.7% of GDP to 92.4% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 88.9% of GDP, from 86.2% of GDP before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 91.6% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED QNZHAM770A 1991–2025-10
Private credit relative to GDP against its long-run trend (one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter, as the BIS computes it).
-1.51 pp of GDP
2025
Higher than 83% of years since 2023
Danger up from 50 a year ago
Median -4.59 pp of GDP · usual range -7.9 pp of GDP to -2.12 pp of GDP
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 2014–2025
Loans to households and firms relative to GDP (bank loans in the history, total credit rescaled to it after).
143% of GDP
Q4 2025
Lower than 79% of years since 2014
Danger up from 17 a year ago
Median 153% of GDP · usual range 142% of GDP to 156% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 155% of GDP, from 155% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 155% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 1 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 2014–2025-10
Debt of non-financial companies relative to GDP.
70.1% of GDP
Q4 2025
Lower than 94% of years since 1999
Danger about the same as a year ago (7)
Median 84.1% of GDP · usual range 72% of GDP to 98.7% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 87.2% of GDP, from 80.2% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 94.2% of GDP before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED QNZNAM770A 1999–2025-10
Bank loans relative to bank deposits.
132%
2021
Higher than 65% of years since 1960
Median 113% · usual range 59.4% to 155%
The year before past crises: median 84.1%, from 61.2% before the Wool price collapse (1967) to 159% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1960–2021
General government gross debt.
54.7% of GDP
2025
Higher than 81% of years since 1985
Danger up from 74 a year ago
Median 34.6% of GDP · usual range 22.5% of GDP to 58% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 31.8% of GDP, from 18.4% of GDP before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 68.5% of GDP before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 8% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1985–2025
Government revenue minus spending; negative is a deficit.
-4% of GDP
2025
Lower than 80% of years since 1985
Danger up from 71 a year ago
Median -1.3% of GDP · usual range -5.3% of GDP to 3.7% of GDP
The year before past crises: median -2.4% of GDP, from -5.3% of GDP before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to 4.6% of GDP before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 23% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1985–2025
Five-year change in public debt relative to GDP.
+11.5 pp of GDP
2025
Higher than 79% of years since 1990
Danger down from 99 a year ago
Median -5.15 pp of GDP · usual range -15.2 pp of GDP to +16.1 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median -6.1 pp of GDP, from -9.8 pp of GDP before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to -2.4 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1985–2025
Long-term interest rate minus nominal GDP growth (r − g). Above zero, debt grows faster than GDP unless the budget is in surplus.
+1.57 pp
Aug 2026
Higher than 75% of years since 1970
Danger up from 69 a year ago
Median -0.26 pp · usual range -7.32 pp to +3.57 pp
The year before past crises: median +0.31 pp, from -3.18 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +2.1 pp before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 28% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED IRLTLT01NZM156N 1970–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025 · Maddison Project 1850–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025
Government interest payments as a share of its spending (World Bank).
2.97 % of spending
2022
Lower than 91% of years since 1972
Median 5.35 % of spending · usual range 3.36 % of spending to 16.3 % of spending
The year before past crises: median 9.72 % of spending, from 3.6 % of spending before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 18.7 % of spending before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 15% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1972–2022
Government bond yield, about 10 years.
4.71%
Aug 2026
Lower than 74% of years since 1970
Danger up from 20 a year ago
Median 6.27% · usual range 3.16% to 12.9%
The year before past crises: median 8.98%, from 1.65% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 16.5% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 18% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED IRLTLT01NZM156N 1970–2026-08
One-year change in the long-term government bond yield.
+0.3 pp
Aug 2026
Higher than 77% of years since 1971
Danger up from 66 a year ago
Median -0.06 pp · usual range -1.19 pp to +0.87 pp
The year before past crises: median -0.9 pp, from -1.21 pp before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to -0.09 pp before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 32% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1985 (+5.05 pp)
Sources: FRED IRLTLT01NZM156N 1970–2026-08
Long-term minus short-term interest rate; below zero, the curve is inverted.
+1.73 pp
Aug 2026
Higher than 94% of years since 1974
Danger down from 14 a year ago
Median -0.06 pp · usual range -2.63 pp to +1.44 pp
The year before past crises: median -1.33 pp, from -2.63 pp before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to +0.13 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 87% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED IRLTLT01NZM156N 1970–2026-08 · FRED IR3TIB01NZM156N 1974–2025
Government bond yield minus inflation.
+1.87 pp
Aug 2026
Lower than 58% of years since 1970
Danger up from 38 a year ago
Median +2.63 pp · usual range -3.73 pp to +6.4 pp
The year before past crises: median +2.83 pp, from +0.03 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +4.84 pp before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 21% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED IRLTLT01NZM156N 1970–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
Change in the stock market after inflation.
1.31%
Aug 2026
Higher than 50% of years since 1968
Danger down from 64 a year ago
Median 1.59% · usual range -20.3% to 18.8%
The year before past crises: median 17.4%, from -0.27% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 56.3% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED SPASTT01NZM661N 1967–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
Real stock prices against their average of the previous ten years.
-4.52%
Aug 2026
Higher than 53% of years since 1975
Danger up from 43 a year ago
Median -4.87% · usual range -41.1% to 48%
The year before past crises: median 36.1%, from -2.49% before the Currency crisis of 1984 to 124% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 92% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED SPASTT01NZM661N 1967–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
Annualized variation of the monthly stock index (monthly data only).
5.52%
Aug 2026
Lower than 93% of years since 1967
Danger down from 27 a year ago
Median 9.61% · usual range 5.79% to 18.8%
The year before past crises: median 8.38%, from 5.51% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14.4% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1987 (45.4%)
Sources: FRED SPASTT01NZM661N 1967–2026-08
Real stock prices below their highest level of the previous five years.
-24.5%
Aug 2026
Lower than 68% of years since 1967
Danger down from 73 a year ago
Median -15.2% · usual range -49.4% to 0%
The year before past crises: median 0%, from -0.27% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 0% before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 24% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED SPASTT01NZM661N 1967–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
Value of listed companies relative to GDP (World Bank).
39.1% of GDP
2025
Higher than 55% of years since 1985
Danger up from 35 a year ago
Median 38.8% of GDP · usual range 29.9% of GDP to 51.4% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 50.6% of GDP, from 40.2% of GDP before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 72.6% of GDP before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1985–2025
Change in house prices after inflation. Both fast rises and falls count as the dangerous side.
-3.72%
Q1 2026
Lower than 82% of years since 1964
Danger down from 68 a year ago
Median 1.72% · usual range -6.71% to 13.1%
The year before past crises: median 2.27%, from -2.42% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to 6.54% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 24% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED QNZR628BIS 1963–2026-01
Real house prices against their average of the previous ten years.
-6.15%
Q1 2026
Lower than 94% of years since 1971
Danger down from 13 a year ago
Median 13.1% · usual range -1.32% to 39.8%
The year before past crises: median 18.2%, from -0.51% before the Currency crisis of 1984 to 49.3% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 82% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED QNZR628BIS 1963–2026-01
Balance of trade, income and transfers with the rest of the world; negative is a deficit.
-3.54% of GDP
2025
Lower than 56% of years since 2000
Danger down from 71 a year ago
Median -3.2% of GDP · usual range -7.03% of GDP to -2.13% of GDP
The year before past crises: median -4.94% of GDP, from -7.07% of GDP before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to -2.82% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 2000–2025
Change in the price of a US dollar in local currency: positive means the currency weakened.
-0.13%
Aug 2026
Lower than 59% of years since 1958
Danger down from 66 a year ago
Median 0.21% · usual range -9.71% to 15.8%
The year before past crises: median 5.01%, from -5.57% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to 12.3% before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED CCUSMA02NZM618N 1957–2026-08
Real effective exchange rate (BIS) against its 10-year average.
-2.23%
Jul 2026
Lower than 87% of years since 2002
Danger down from 29 a year ago
Median 2.23% · usual range -2.95% to 13.1%
The year before past crises: median 2.44%, from -3.47% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 8.34% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED RBNZBIS 1994–2026-07
Central bank reserves measured in months of imports.
3.91 months of imports
2025
Higher than 90% of years since 2000
Danger down from 37 a year ago
Median 2.94 months of imports · usual range 2.14 months of imports to 3.88 months of imports
The year before past crises: median 3.43 months of imports, from 3.06 months of imports before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 3.8 months of imports before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 2000–2025
Net inflows of foreign direct investment relative to GDP.
1.29% of GDP
2025
Lower than 58% of years since 1970
Danger down from 81 a year ago
Median 1.46% of GDP · usual range 0.27% of GDP to 3.94% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 1.36% of GDP, from 1% of GDP before the Currency crisis of 1984 to 2.61% of GDP before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025
How hostile supporters of opposing political camps are to each other (V-Dem experts; 0 = friendly, 4 = generally hostile).
1.09 of 4
2025
Higher than 96% of years since 1900
Danger down from 100 a year ago
Median 0.38 of 4 · usual range 0.35 of 4 to 0.78 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.38 of 4, from 0.35 of 4 before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to 0.78 of 4 before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1981 (1.29 of 4), 2022 (1.3 of 4), 2023 (1.3 of 4), 2024 (1.6 of 4)
Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How frequent and large demonstrations, strikes and sit-ins were (V-Dem; 0 = virtually none, 4 = many large-scale).
2.13 of 4
2025
Higher than 98% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (99)
Median 0.62 of 4 · usual range 0.44 of 4 to 1.47 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.86 of 4, from 0.43 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929) to 1.22 of 4 before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How often non-state actors used violence for political ends (V-Dem; 0 = not at all, 4 = often).
0.38 of 4
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (0)
Median 0.88 of 4 · usual range 0.88 of 4 to 0.88 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.88 of 4, from 0.88 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929) to 0.88 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Strength of movements that want to change the political system fundamentally (V-Dem; 0 = practically none, 4 = very strong).
1.32 of 4
2025
Higher than 99% of years since 1853
Danger about the same as a year ago (99)
Median 0.36 of 4 · usual range 0.14 of 4 to 0.64 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.14 of 4, from 0.14 of 4 before the Wool price collapse (1967) to 0.64 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Long Depression (1879), Bank of New Zealand rescue (1893), Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1853–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them separatist or autonomist (V-Dem).
0 of 4
2025
Lower than 62% of years since 1853
Danger about the same as a year ago (38)
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.04 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Long Depression (1879) to 0.05 of 4 before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 8 crises: Long Depression (1879), Bank of New Zealand rescue (1893), Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1853–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem liberal democracy index (0-100); negative means it fell.
-3.9 points
2025
Lower than 100% of years since 1858
Danger up from 94 a year ago
Median +0.6 points · usual range -1.26 points to +3.8 points
The year before past crises: median +0.1 points, from -0.5 points before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to +3 points before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Long Depression (1879), Bank of New Zealand rescue (1893), Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1858 (+12.2 points), 1893 (+15.9 points), 1894 (+16.1 points), 1895 (+16.6 points), 1896 (+16.4 points), 1897 (+17.6 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1853–2025
How often "uncertainty" appears in country reports (World Uncertainty Index; Economic Policy Uncertainty for the euro area).
0.2
Q2 2026
Higher than 76% of years since 1956
Danger up from 73 a year ago
Median 0.12 · usual range 0.02 to 0.28
The year before past crises: median 0.09, from 0.03 before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to 0.31 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Wool price collapse (1967), Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED WUINZL 1956–2026-04
Unemployment rate plus inflation.
8.14%
2025
Lower than 51% of years since 1980
Danger up from 34 a year ago
Median 8.32% · usual range 6.13% to 18.3%
The year before past crises: median 10.4%, from 5.72% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 17.4% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2025 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
Share of national income before taxes going to the richest 1% (World Inequality Database, with its estimates for gaps).
12.1%
2024
Lower than 56% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (44)
Median 12.6% · usual range 8.69% to 19.6%
The year before past crises: median 10.1%, from 7.22% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to 20.9% before the Great Depression (1929)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024
How much of the economy the state owns or directly controls (V-Dem; 0 = very little, 4 = virtually all).
1.44 of 4
2025
Lower than 66% of years since 1850
Median 1.53 of 4 · usual range 0.88 of 4 to 1.68 of 4
The year before past crises: median 1.53 of 4, from 0.82 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.68 of 4 before the Wool price collapse (1967)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 8 crises: Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Size of the state: government spending relative to GDP. The long-run series cover central government only, so the level is lower than the familiar general-government figure.
41.9% of GDP
2024
Higher than 90% of years since 1876
Median 19.7% of GDP · usual range 13.1% of GDP to 41.8% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 31.5% of GDP, from 12.6% of GDP before the Long Depression (1879) to 46.9% of GDP before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Long Depression (1879), Bank of New Zealand rescue (1893), Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1876–2024
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them leftist, socialist or communist (V-Dem).
0.44 of 4
2025
Higher than 100% of years since 1853
Median 0.04 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.14 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.03 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Long Depression (1879) to 0.32 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Long Depression (1879), Bank of New Zealand rescue (1893), Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1853–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them rightist or "party of order" (V-Dem).
0 of 4
2025
Higher than 50% of years since 1853
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Long Depression (1879) to 0 of 4 before the Long Depression (1879)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Long Depression (1879), Bank of New Zealand rescue (1893), Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1853–2025
V-Dem political corruption index (0 = none, 100 = pervasive).
1.4 of 100
2025
Higher than 65% of years since 1853
Danger up from 37 a year ago
Median 1.2 of 100 · usual range 0.9 of 100 to 3.2 of 100
The year before past crises: median 0.9 of 100, from 0.9 of 100 before the Wool price collapse (1967) to 3.2 of 100 before the Long Depression (1879)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1853–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem rule-of-law index (0-100).
-0.2 points
2025
Lower than 98% of years since 1855
Danger about the same as a year ago (99)
Median 0 points · usual range 0 points to +0.2 points
The year before past crises: median 0 points, from 0 points before the Long Depression (1879) to +0.5 points before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Long Depression (1879), Bank of New Zealand rescue (1893), Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem freedom of expression and alternative information index (0-100).
-1.8 points
2025
Lower than 90% of years since 1858
Danger up from 57 a year ago
Median 0 points · usual range -1.89 points to +2.8 points
The year before past crises: median +0.2 points, from 0 points before the Long Depression (1879) to +1.4 points before the Wool price collapse (1967)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Long Depression (1879), Bank of New Zealand rescue (1893), Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1914 (-4.5 points), 1915 (-5.8 points), 1916 (-4.8 points), 1920 (+5.5 points), 1922 (+5.4 points), 1923 (+5.4 points), 1936 (-4.9 points), 1938 (-4.5 points), 1939 (-5.9 points), 1940 (-4.4 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1853–2025
How much the government represses civil society organizations (V-Dem; 0 = none, 4 = severely).
0.81 of 4
2025
Higher than 99% of years since 1853
Danger about the same as a year ago (99)
Median 0.21 of 4 · usual range 0.12 of 4 to 0.51 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.21 of 4, from 0.11 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 0.46 of 4 before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Long Depression (1879), Bank of New Zealand rescue (1893), Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1853–2025
Coup attempts in the year (Powell & Thyne, via V-Dem).
0
2024
Higher than 50% of years since 1950
Danger about the same as a year ago (50)
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Wool price collapse (1967) to 0 before the Wool price collapse (1967)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024
Deaths in armed conflicts the country is involved in (Uppsala Conflict Data Program, via Our World in Data).
0
2026
Higher than 50% of years since 1989
Danger about the same as a year ago (50)
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 0 before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026
Unemployment of 15-24-year-olds (ILO estimates via the World Bank).
14.4%
2025
Higher than 70% of years since 1991
Danger up from 61 a year ago
Median 13.5% · usual range 10% to 17.7%
The year before past crises: median 10.6%, from 9.95% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 11.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025
People aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age.
27.3 per 100 workers
2025
Higher than 99% of years since 1960
Median 17.3 per 100 workers · usual range 14.3 per 100 workers to 23.2 per 100 workers
The year before past crises: median 16 per 100 workers, from 14.1 per 100 workers before the Wool price collapse (1967) to 23.4 per 100 workers before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025
Crude oil price (WTI) against a year earlier. Both sharp rises and falls count as the dangerous side.
52.1%
Sep 2026
Higher than 95% of years since 1947
Danger up from 65 a year ago
Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%
The year before past crises: median -9.64%, from -46.2% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to 17.1% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1974 (168%)
Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09
The US dollar against major currencies, against a year earlier.
-0.68%
Sep 2026
Lower than 77% of years since 1974
Danger about the same as a year ago (23)
Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%
The year before past crises: median 1.37%, from -7.16% before the Share crash and banking crisis (1987) to 12.8% before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09
Expected stock market volatility implied by S&P 500 option prices (VIX).
15.8
Sep 2026
Lower than 67% of years since 1990
Danger about the same as a year ago (33)
Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6
The year before past crises: median 14.1, from 12.8 before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 15.4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09
IMF index of all commodity prices against a year earlier.
16.6%
Jul 2026
Higher than 70% of years since 1993
Danger up from 9 a year ago
Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%
The year before past crises: median 4.21%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 16.8% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07
IMF food price index against a year earlier.
4.78%
Jul 2026
Higher than 64% of years since 1993
Danger up from 27 a year ago
Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%
The year before past crises: median 2.46%, from -3.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 7.98% before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index (GDP-weighted, Baker, Bloom & Davis).
242
Jul 2026
Higher than 90% of years since 1997
Danger down from 100 a year ago
Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239
The year before past crises: median 149, from 63.3 before the Finance company collapses and recession (2007) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07
News coverage of wars, terrorism and international tensions since 1900 (Caldara & Iacoviello; 100 = the 1985-2019 average).
137
Sep 2026
Higher than 88% of years since 1900
Danger up from 80 a year ago
Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161
The year before past crises: median 88.3, from 37.2 before the Great Depression (1929) to 104 before the Currency crisis of 1984
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Great Depression (1929), Wool price collapse (1967), Currency crisis of 1984, Share crash and banking crisis (1987), Finance company collapses and recession (2007), COVID-19 recession (2020)
Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)
Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09
A short, deep lockdown recession.
Dozens of finance companies failed and the economy fell into recession.
The share market lost 60%; the DFC collapsed and the Bank of New Zealand was rescued again.
A run on the dollar before the snap election ended in a 20% devaluation and sweeping reform.
Wool prices fell 40% and the dollar was devalued.
Export prices collapsed and unemployment soared.
The Bank of New Zealand was rescued by the government.
Wool and wheat prices fell after a borrowing boom; emigration exceeded immigration.
