Mexico

Lower than 72% of years since 1896

↓Danger down from 79 a year ago

Median 4.08% · usual range -1.87% to 8.55%

The year before past crises: median 2.58%, from -3.06% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987) to 8.65% before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: Mexican Revolution (1910), Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Maddison Project 1850–2022 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCMXQ 2023–2026-04

Lower than 89% of years since 1980

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 3.65% · usual range 2.65% to 5.35%

The year before past crises: median 3.5%, from 0.9% before the Debt crisis (1982) to 4.3% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Debt crisis (1982)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2026-07

Higher than 71% of years since 1981

↑Danger up from 44 a year ago

Median -0.1 pp · usual range -0.66 pp to +0.78 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.1 pp, from -0.3 pp before the Debt crisis (1982) to +0.6 pp before the Tequila crisis (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 76% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1982 (+3.3 pp)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2026-07

Higher than 54% of years since 1960

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median 22.3% of GDP · usual range 18.9% of GDP to 24.2% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 22.9% of GDP, from 17.8% of GDP before the Stock crash and inflation (1987) to 25.9% of GDP before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1960–2025

Lower than 84% of years since 1961

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 3.91% · usual range 0% to 7.55%

The year before past crises: median 1.05%, from -2.58% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987) to 7.37% before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1965 (39.5%)

Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 1960–2025

Higher than 55% of years since 1961

↓Danger down from 69 a year ago

Median 6.53% · usual range -1.15% to 18.5%

The year before past crises: median 3.13%, from 1.16% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 11.4% before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Debt crisis (1982)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1965 (51.8%)

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1961–2025

Lower than 79% of years since 1998

↑Danger up from 71 a year ago

Median 103 · usual range 92.7 to 112

The year before past crises: median 109, from 103 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 115 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED BSCICP02MXM460S 1998–2026-07

Lower than 76% of years since 1961

↑Danger up from 25 a year ago

Median 5.53% · usual range 2.9% to 48.7%

The year before past crises: median 12.4%, from 3.64% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 86.2% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Peso devaluation of 1976, Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1983 (102%), 1986 (86.2%), 1987 (132%), 1988 (114%)

Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Lower than 63% of years since 1977

↑Danger up from 25 a year ago

Median -0.14 pp · usual range -8.35 pp to +8.66 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.83 pp, from -0.21 pp before the Tequila crisis (1994) to +24.8 pp before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1986 (+24.8 pp), 1988 (-27 pp), 1989 (-23 pp), 1995 (+29.6 pp)

Sources: FRED IRSTCI01MXM156N 1976–2026-08

Lower than 72% of years since 1976

↑Danger up from 20 a year ago

Median 11% · usual range 3.25% to 51.6%

The year before past crises: median 18.6%, from 5% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 80.9% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Tequila crisis (1994), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1987 (94.6%)

Sources: FRED IRSTCI01MXM156N 1976–2026-08

Higher than 68% of years since 1976

↓Danger down from 44 a year ago

Median -0.1 pp · usual range -14.5 pp to +5.5 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.04 pp, from -5.35 pp before the Stock crash and inflation (1987) to +8.81 pp before the Tequila crisis (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Debt crisis (1982), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1983 (-45.2 pp), 1987 (-37.2 pp), 1988 (-46.5 pp), 1989 (+24.6 pp)

Sources: FRED IRSTCI01MXM156N 1976–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 1961

↑Danger up from 3 a year ago

Median 13.4% · usual range 6.95% to 55.9%

The year before past crises: median 21.6%, from 4.7% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 71% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1987 (142%), 1989 (95.9%)

Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1961–2025

Lower than 96% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 17 a year ago

Median +5.49 pp of GDP · usual range -1.43 pp of GDP to +8.39 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +6.83 pp of GDP, from +6.26 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +7.4 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1997–2025-10

Higher than 100% of years since 1995

↑Danger up from 97 a year ago

Median 13% of GDP · usual range 8.45% of GDP to 16.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 13.9% of GDP, from 11.9% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 15.8% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED QMXHAM770A 1995–2025-10

Lower than 82% of years since 2006

↑Danger up from 13 a year ago

Median +2.34 pp of GDP · usual range -2.54 pp of GDP to +3.57 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +2.7 pp of GDP, from +1.32 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +4.08 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1997–2025

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 97 a year ago

Median 23.6% of GDP · usual range 14.3% of GDP to 35.2% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 28% of GDP, from 20.4% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 35.6% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1997–2025-10

Higher than 55% of years since 1995

↓Danger down from 65 a year ago

Median 20.2% of GDP · usual range 13.9% of GDP to 25.8% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 19.3% of GDP, from 13.6% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 24.9% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: FRED QMXNAM770A 1995–2025-10

Higher than 93% of years since 2005

↓Danger down from 21 a year ago

Median 9.35 % of assets · usual range 8.66 % of assets to 10.2 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 9.51 % of assets, from 9.21 % of assets before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 9.8 % of assets before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2005–2025

Lower than 55% of years since 2005

↑Danger up from 12 a year ago

Median 2.2 % of loans · usual range 2.02 % of loans to 3.13 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 2.37 % of loans, from 2.2 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 2.54 % of loans before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2005–2025

Lower than 57% of years since 1960

Median 78.9% · usual range 59.1% to 127%

The year before past crises: median 84.8%, from 56% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987) to 127% before the Tequila crisis (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1960–2021

Higher than 82% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 93 a year ago

Median 3.9 % of income · usual range 3.24 % of income to 5.65 % of income

The year before past crises: median 4.28 % of income, from 3.3 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 5.25 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 98% of years since 1996

↑Danger up from 95 a year ago

Median 41.9% of GDP · usual range 37.3% of GDP to 56.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 43.7% of GDP, from 35.5% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 51.9% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1996–2025

Lower than 96% of years since 1990

↓Danger down from 99 a year ago

Median -2.9% of GDP · usual range -4.45% of GDP to -1.1% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -1.5% of GDP, from -2.3% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to -1.5% of GDP before the Tequila crisis (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1990–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 2001

↓Danger down from 78 a year ago

Median +3.2 pp of GDP · usual range -2.36 pp of GDP to +9.72 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +0.2 pp of GDP, from -4.4 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +4.8 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1996–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 2002

→Danger about the same as a year ago (100)

Median +1.49 pp · usual range -0.75 pp to +2.7 pp

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01MXM156N 2002–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025 · Maddison Project 1850–2022 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCMXQ 2023–2025

Higher than 63% of years since 1972

Median 14.3 % of spending · usual range 10.2 % of spending to 46.2 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 17.9 % of spending, from 10.1 % of spending before the Peso devaluation of 1976 to 56.5 % of spending before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Peso devaluation of 1976, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 66% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1986 (56.5 % of spending), 1987 (64 % of spending), 1988 (62.2 % of spending)

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1972–2023

Lower than 60% of years since 2002

→Danger about the same as a year ago (40)

Median 9.42% · usual range 8.63% to 9.89%

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01MXM156N 2002–2026-08

Higher than 75% of years since 2003

↑Danger up from 50 a year ago

Median -0.57 pp · usual range -1.11 pp to +0.35 pp

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01MXM156N 2002–2026-08

Lower than 60% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median +4.53 pp · usual range +3.07 pp to +4.86 pp

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01MXM156N 2002–2026-08 · FRED IRSTCI01MXM156N 1976–2025

Higher than 80% of years since 2002

→Danger about the same as a year ago (80)

Median +4.85 pp · usual range +4.56 pp to +5.3 pp

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01MXM156N 2002–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 60% of years since 1971

↓Danger down from 46 a year ago

Median 3.81% · usual range -15.9% to 48.5%

The year before past crises: median -5.45%, from -29.3% before the Debt crisis (1982) to 92.3% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Stock crash and inflation (1987), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1987 (200%)

Sources: FRED SPASTT01MXM661N 1970–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Lower than 65% of years since 1978

↑Danger up from 23 a year ago

Median 39% · usual range -16.1% to 180%

The year before past crises: median 48.7%, from -13.6% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 179% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Debt crisis (1982), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01MXM661N 1970–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Lower than 77% of years since 1970

↑Danger up from 14 a year ago

Median 17.7% · usual range 9.54% to 37.1%

The year before past crises: median 17.6%, from 12.6% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 36.5% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1987 (106%)

Sources: FRED SPASTT01MXM661N 1970–2026-08

Higher than 52% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 52 a year ago

Median -8.37% · usual range -40.2% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -9.64%, from -47.6% before the Debt crisis (1982) to 0% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01MXM661N 1970–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 61% of years since 1975

Median 23.9% of GDP · usual range 0.9% of GDP to 37.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 4.1% of GDP, from 0.38% of GDP before the Debt crisis (1982) to 37.9% of GDP before the Tequila crisis (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1975–2025

Higher than 80% of years since 2006

↑Danger up from 40 a year ago

Median 2.32% · usual range -0.14% to 4.79%

The year before past crises: median 4.17%, from 3.58% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 4.76% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: FRED QMXR628BIS 2005–2026-01

Higher than 92% of years since 2013

↑Danger up from 85 a year ago

Median 15% · usual range 4.29% to 18.8%

The year before past crises: median 17.2%, from 17.2% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 17.2% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 1 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED QMXR628BIS 2005–2026-01

Higher than 76% of years since 1979

↓Danger down from 42 a year ago

Median -1.41% of GDP · usual range -4.55% of GDP to -0.01% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -1.02% of GDP, from -6.16% of GDP before the Debt crisis (1982) to -0.3% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 26% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 1979–2025

Lower than 98% of years since 1958

↓Danger down from 7 a year ago

Median 1.06% · usual range -1.08% to 50.5%

The year before past crises: median 0.45%, from 0% before the Peso devaluation of 1976 to 95.5% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1982 (111%), 1983 (199%), 1985 (70.5%), 1986 (95.5%), 1987 (122%), 1988 (60.9%), 1995 (89.5%)

Sources: FRED CCUSMA02MXM618N 1957–2026-08

Higher than 96% of years since 2002

↑Danger up from 88 a year ago

Median -3.73% · usual range -16.3% to 17.1%

The year before past crises: median -5.5%, from -9.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to -1.94% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED RBMXBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 67% of years since 1979

↓Danger down from 37 a year ago

Median 3.29 months of imports · usual range 1.77 months of imports to 4.51 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 3.07 months of imports, from 1.32 months of imports before the Debt crisis (1982) to 4.06 months of imports before the Tequila crisis (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Tequila crisis (1994), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1979–2025

Higher than 65% of years since 1970

↑Danger up from 30 a year ago

Median 2.03% of GDP · usual range 0.8% of GDP to 2.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.48% of GDP, from 0.52% of GDP before the Peso devaluation of 1976 to 2.81% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Higher than 89% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (89)

Median 2.04 of 4 · usual range 1.36 of 4 to 3.81 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.29 of 4, from 1.66 of 4 before the Peso devaluation of 1976 to 3.84 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 82% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 69% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 35 a year ago

Median 2.57 of 4 · usual range 1.61 of 4 to 3.64 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.78 of 4, from 0.95 of 4 before the Panic of 1907 to 3.47 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 77% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 92% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (91)

Median 2.08 of 4 · usual range 1.65 of 4 to 3.21 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.09 of 4, from 1.38 of 4 before the Tequila crisis (1994) to 3.21 of 4 before the Panic of 1907

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 1850

↑Danger up from 1 a year ago

Median 1.3 of 4 · usual range 0.31 of 4 to 3.91 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.05 of 4, from 0.4 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 3.38 of 4 before the Panic of 1907

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 9 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 96% of years since 1850

↑Danger up from 93 a year ago

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.04 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Panic of 1907 to 0.1 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 100% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 0 points · usual range -3.4 points to +5.5 points

The year before past crises: median +0.1 points, from -4 points before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +5.6 points before the Tequila crisis (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1994 (+8.8 points), 1995 (+9.5 points), 1996 (+9.7 points), 1997 (+13.8 points), 1998 (+16.3 points), 1999 (+12.1 points), 2000 (+20 points), 2001 (+19.1 points), 2002 (+14.8 points), 2003 (+12.1 points), 2004 (+12.4 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 1952

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 0.12 · usual range 0.02 to 0.37

The year before past crises: median 0.2, from 0.1 before the Debt crisis (1982) to 0.58 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUIMEX 1952–2026-04

Higher than 88% of years since 2002

↑Danger up from 8 a year ago

Median 39.9 · usual range 36.4 to 45.4

The year before past crises: median 43.8, from 42.8 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 44.8 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: FRED CSCICP02MXM460S 2002–2026-07

Lower than 98% of years since 1980

↑Danger up from 0 a year ago

Median 10.2% · usual range 7.33% to 67.1%

The year before past crises: median 13.2%, from 7.14% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 90.5% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1983 (108%), 1987 (136%), 1988 (118%)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2026-07 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 72% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (72)

Median 20.2% · usual range 12.5% to 32.3%

The year before past crises: median 12.5%, from 12.5% before the Debt crisis (1982) to 31.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Higher than 67% of years since 1850

Median 0.78 of 4 · usual range 0.47 of 4 to 2.19 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.14 of 4, from 0.47 of 4 before the Panic of 1907 to 2.19 of 4 before the Peso devaluation of 1976

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 1900

Median 10.2% of GDP · usual range 4.46% of GDP to 26.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 14.7% of GDP, from 4.05% of GDP before the Mexican Revolution (1910) to 25.3% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1900–2024

Higher than 55% of years since 1850

Median 0.15 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.71 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.35 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Panic of 1907 to 0.9 of 4 before the Peso devaluation of 1976

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 56% of years since 1850

Median 0.06 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 3.91 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.05 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Panic of 1907 to 0.22 of 4 before the Peso devaluation of 1976

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Off the chart: 1850 (3.91 of 4), 1851 (3.91 of 4), 1852 (3.91 of 4), 1853 (3.91 of 4), 1854 (3.91 of 4), 1855 (3.91 of 4), 1856 (3.91 of 4), 1857 (3.91 of 4), 1858 (3.91 of 4), 1859 (3.91 of 4), 1860 (3.91 of 4), 1861 (3.91 of 4), 1862 (3.91 of 4), 1863 (3.91 of 4), 1864 (3.91 of 4), 1865 (3.91 of 4), 1866 (3.91 of 4), 1867 (3.91 of 4), 1868 (3.91 of 4), 1869 (3.91 of 4), 1870 (3.91 of 4), 1871 (3.91 of 4), 1872 (3.91 of 4), 1873 (3.91 of 4), 1874 (3.91 of 4), 1875 (3.91 of 4), 1876 (3.91 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 96% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (4)

Median 81.3 of 100 · usual range 61 of 100 to 85.3 of 100

The year before past crises: median 78.7 of 100, from 60.7 of 100 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 85.3 of 100 before the Panic of 1907

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 9 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 26% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 100% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 0 points · usual range -3.6 points to +9 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -3.3 points before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +4.6 points before the Stock crash and inflation (1987)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1855 (+14.7 points), 1856 (+14 points), 1857 (+16.2 points), 1858 (+16.2 points), 1917 (+5.8 points), 1918 (+9.8 points), 1919 (+9.8 points), 1920 (+9.1 points), 1921 (+9.3 points), 1983 (+4.7 points), 1984 (+4.7 points), 1985 (+4.7 points), 1986 (+4.6 points), 1990 (+4.1 points), 1991 (+4.1 points), 1992 (+4.1 points), 1993 (+3.8 points), 1994 (+13.5 points), 1995 (+15 points), 1996 (+15 points), 1997 (+16.8 points), 1998 (+16.8 points), 1999 (+5.6 points), 2000 (+13 points), 2001 (+13.3 points), 2002 (+11.5 points), 2003 (+9 points), 2004 (+9 points), 2019 (+3.8 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 96% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (96)

Median 0 points · usual range -4.3 points to +9.3 points

The year before past crises: median +0.5 points, from -0.4 points before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +7.5 points before the Tequila crisis (1994)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1876 (-28.3 points), 1877 (-33.9 points), 1878 (-33.9 points), 1879 (-33.9 points), 1880 (-33.9 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 84% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (17)

Median 2.4 of 4 · usual range 0.72 of 4 to 3.35 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.4 of 4, from 0.63 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 3.35 of 4 before the Panic of 1907

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Peso devaluation of 1976 to 0 before the Peso devaluation of 1976

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Lower than 51% of years since 1989

↓Danger down from 78 a year ago

Median 1,333 · usual range 0 to 11,015

The year before past crises: median 1,971, from 27 before the Tequila crisis (1994) to 10,432 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Tequila crisis (1994)

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 93% of years since 1996

↑Danger up from 47 a year ago

Median 79.8 · usual range 49.2 to 169

The year before past crises: median 77.2, from 60.3 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 94 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1996–2026-07

Higher than 67% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 92 a year ago

Median 0.09 % of articles · usual range 0.05 % of articles to 0.2 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.11 % of articles, from 0.05 % of articles before the Mexican Revolution (1910) to 0.2 % of articles before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), Peso devaluation of 1976, Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1913 (0.63 % of articles), 1914 (1.12 % of articles), 1915 (0.56 % of articles), 1916 (1.33 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 81% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 21 a year ago

Median 7.12% · usual range 5.56% to 9.66%

The year before past crises: median 7.12%, from 5.57% before the Tequila crisis (1994) to 7.16% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Tequila crisis (1994)

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 7.32 per 100 workers · usual range 5.42 per 100 workers to 10.9 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 6.96 per 100 workers, from 5.62 per 100 workers before the Peso devaluation of 1976 to 11.1 per 100 workers before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median -6.06%, from -46.2% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987) to 9.47% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 66% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 4.01%, from -7.16% before the Stock crash and inflation (1987) to 11% before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Stock crash and inflation (1987), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 15.4, from 12.7 before the Tequila crisis (1994) to 17.5 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Tequila crisis (1994), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median -2.16%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 1.45%, from -3.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Tequila crisis (1994), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 153, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 79.1, from 30.9 before the Mexican Revolution (1910) to 102 before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Panic of 1907, Mexican Revolution (1910), Great Depression (1929), Peso devaluation of 1976, Debt crisis (1982), Stock crash and inflation (1987), Tequila crisis (1994), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 26% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09