South Korea

Lower than 64% of years since 1912

↓Danger down from 86 a year ago

Median 5.45% · usual range -0.59% to 12%

The year before past crises: median 6.86%, from 2.24% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 10.9% before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Maddison Project 1870–2022 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCKRQ 2023–2026-04

Lower than 74% of years since 1980

↑Danger up from 22 a year ago

Median 3.55% · usual range 2.5% to 4.25%

The year before past crises: median 3.5%, from 2.1% before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 3.9% before the Industrial restructuring crisis (1985)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2026-07

Higher than 68% of years since 1981

↑Danger up from 57 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -0.66 pp to +0.36 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.2 pp, from -0.7 pp before the Credit card crisis (2003) to 0 pp before the Asian financial crisis (1997)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 23% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1998 (+4.4 pp), 2000 (-2.2 pp)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2026-07

Lower than 75% of years since 1960

↑Danger up from 35 a year ago

Median 31.9% of GDP · usual range 21.8% of GDP to 37.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 32.9% of GDP, from 26.4% of GDP before the Corporate debt crisis (1971) to 39.7% of GDP before the Asian financial crisis (1997)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 8 crises: Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1960 (10.6% of GDP)

Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1960–2025

Lower than 88% of years since 1961

→Danger about the same as a year ago (90)

Median 5.94% · usual range 1.17% to 9.98%

The year before past crises: median 7.83%, from 2.37% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 10.8% before the Corporate debt crisis (1971)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 1960–2025

Lower than 73% of years since 1961

↑Danger up from 69 a year ago

Median 12.4% · usual range 1.54% to 36%

The year before past crises: median 12.5%, from -0.17% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 30.1% before the Corporate debt crisis (1971)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1961–2025

Higher than 53% of years since 1992

↓Danger down from 82 a year ago

Median -6.47 · usual range -14.7 to 20.8

The year before past crises: median -0.64, from -12.6 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 15.3 before the Asian financial crisis (1997)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED BSCICP02KRM460S 1992–2026-08

Lower than 85% of years since 1961

↑Danger up from 55 a year ago

Median 4.48% · usual range 1.37% to 17.4%

The year before past crises: median 2.64%, from 0.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 16% before the Corporate debt crisis (1971)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 77% of years since 1992

↑Danger up from 18 a year ago

Median -0.14 pp · usual range -1.85 pp to +0.81 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.07 pp, from -1.42 pp before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to +0.69 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1999 (-8.41 pp)

Sources: FRED IR3TIB01KRM156N 1991–2026-08

Lower than 63% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 49 a year ago

Median 3.71% · usual range 1.57% to 13.8%

The year before past crises: median 4.8%, from 0.85% before the Bond market crunch (2022) to 12.6% before the Asian financial crisis (1997)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Credit card crisis (2003)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED IR3TIB01KRM156N 1991–2026-08

Lower than 60% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 43 a year ago

Median +1.22 pp · usual range -0.41 pp to +8.63 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.04 pp, from -1.65 pp before the Bond market crunch (2022) to +7.71 pp before the Asian financial crisis (1997)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED IR3TIB01KRM156N 1991–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 1961

↓Danger down from 95 a year ago

Median 16.2% · usual range 5.63% to 44.1%

The year before past crises: median 13.5%, from 7.71% before the Industrial restructuring crisis (1985) to 35% before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1961–2024

Lower than 90% of years since 1965

↓Danger down from 59 a year ago

Median +7.43 pp of GDP · usual range -0.92 pp of GDP to +31.9 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +16.2 pp of GDP, from -1.61 pp of GDP before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979) to +53.9 pp of GDP before the Credit card crisis (2003)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 8 crises: Oil shock and political crisis (1979)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2024 · FRED QKRPAM770A 2025–2025-10

Higher than 91% of years since 1963

→Danger about the same as a year ago (92)

Median 44.3% of GDP · usual range 9.12% of GDP to 87.6% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 52.3% of GDP, from 10.1% of GDP before the Corporate debt crisis (1971) to 98.7% of GDP before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 66% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED QKRHAM770A 1963–2025-10

Lower than 80% of years since 1969

↓Danger down from 33 a year ago

Median -0.83 pp of GDP · usual range -9.04 pp of GDP to +9.82 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +1.86 pp of GDP, from -5.58 pp of GDP before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979) to +29.7 pp of GDP before the Credit card crisis (2003)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 8 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 77% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2024 · FRED QKRPAM770A 2025–2025

Higher than 92% of years since 1960

→Danger about the same as a year ago (94)

Median 47.6% of GDP · usual range 14.7% of GDP to 139% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 79.4% of GDP, from 32.3% of GDP before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979) to 160% of GDP before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2024 · FRED QKRPAM770A 2025–2025-10

Higher than 95% of years since 1963

→Danger about the same as a year ago (95)

Median 76.9% of GDP · usual range 40.2% of GDP to 102% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 80% of GDP, from 43.2% of GDP before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979) to 106% of GDP before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED QKRNAM770A 1963–2025-10

Lower than 90% of years since 2009

Median 7.1 % of assets · usual range 6.47 % of assets to 7.46 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 7.21 % of assets, from 7.1 % of assets before the Bond market crunch (2022) to 7.31 % of assets before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2009–2023

Lower than 63% of years since 2009

Median 0.46 % of loans · usual range 0.24 % of loans to 0.59 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 0.24 % of loans, from 0.23 % of loans before the Bond market crunch (2022) to 0.25 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2009–2023

Lower than 93% of years since 1960

Median 133% · usual range 108% to 153%

The year before past crises: median 125%, from 107% before the Bond market crunch (2022) to 168% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 8 crises: Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1960–2021

Higher than 78% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 96 a year ago

Median 10.8 % of income · usual range 9.69 % of income to 12 % of income

The year before past crises: median 11.3 % of income, from 10.7 % of income before the Credit card crisis (2003) to 11.8 % of income before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Credit card crisis (2003), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 17% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 70% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 89 a year ago

Median 18.2 % of income · usual range 16.9 % of income to 20.6 % of income

The year before past crises: median 18.1 % of income, from 17.9 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 19 % of income before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 0% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 98% of years since 1990

↑Danger up from 89 a year ago

Median 35.1% of GDP · usual range 7.29% of GDP to 47.8% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 37.7% of GDP, from 6.63% of GDP before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 45.8% of GDP before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: World Bank (GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS) 1990–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2025–2025

Lower than 92% of years since 1972

↓Danger down from 95 a year ago

Median 1.07% of GDP · usual range -0.93% of GDP to 2.29% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.28% of GDP, from -0.72% of GDP before the Bond market crunch (2022) to 3.23% of GDP before the Credit card crisis (2003)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS) 1972–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2025–2025

Higher than 54% of years since 1995

↓Danger down from 79 a year ago

Median +5.58 pp of GDP · usual range -1.19 pp of GDP to +12 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +2.88 pp of GDP, from -3.3 pp of GDP before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to +9.68 pp of GDP before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS) 1990–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2025–2025

Higher than 92% of years since 2001

↑Danger up from 88 a year ago

Median -1.3 pp · usual range -3.58 pp to -0.5 pp

The year before past crises: median -2.39 pp, from -4.58 pp before the Bond market crunch (2022) to -0.92 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01KRM156N 2001–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025 · Maddison Project 1870–2022 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCKRQ 2023–2025

Lower than 62% of years since 1972

Median 5.27 % of spending · usual range 3.31 % of spending to 7.27 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 5.55 % of spending, from 3.02 % of spending before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 7.96 % of spending before the Industrial restructuring crisis (1985)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 7 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1972–2023

Higher than 60% of years since 2001

↑Danger up from 28 a year ago

Median 3.45% · usual range 1.87% to 5.48%

The year before past crises: median 3.71%, from 1.7% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 6.59% before the Credit card crisis (2003)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01KRM156N 2001–2026-08

Higher than 100% of years since 2002

↑Danger up from 54 a year ago

Median -0.24 pp · usual range -0.79 pp to +0.46 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.04 pp, from -0.8 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +0.56 pp before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01KRM156N 2001–2026-08

Higher than 84% of years since 2001

↓Danger down from 68 a year ago

Median +0.69 pp · usual range +0.04 pp to +1.68 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.7 pp, from +0.01 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +1.78 pp before the Credit card crisis (2003)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Credit card crisis (2003)

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01KRM156N 2001–2026-08 · FRED IR3TIB01KRM156N 1991–2025

Higher than 76% of years since 2001

↑Danger up from 20 a year ago

Median +1.26 pp · usual range +0.1 pp to +2.81 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.07 pp, from -0.43 pp before the Bond market crunch (2022) to +3.82 pp before the Credit card crisis (2003)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: FRED IRLTLT01KRM156N 2001–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 1982

↓Danger down from 32 a year ago

Median 0.48% · usual range -21.8% to 34.2%

The year before past crises: median 14.8%, from -15.1% before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 36.6% before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01KRM661N 1981–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1989

↑Danger up from 60 a year ago

Median 13.4% · usual range -23% to 51.8%

The year before past crises: median 0.1%, from -15.6% before the Credit card crisis (2003) to 89.4% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1989 (221%)

Sources: FRED SPASTT01KRM661N 1981–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 98% of years since 1981

↑Danger up from 51 a year ago

Median 16.1% · usual range 8.68% to 26%

The year before past crises: median 15.4%, from 10.4% before the Industrial restructuring crisis (1985) to 23.7% before the Credit card crisis (2003)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 85% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01KRM661N 1981–2026-08

Lower than 67% of years since 1981

↑Danger up from 62 a year ago

Median -9.87% · usual range -39.9% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -9.16%, from -21.4% before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 0% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01KRM661N 1981–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1979

↑Danger up from 73 a year ago

Median 45.9% of GDP · usual range 6.76% of GDP to 96.6% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 61.7% of GDP, from 6.24% of GDP before the Industrial restructuring crisis (1985) to 114% of GDP before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1979–2025

Lower than 52% of years since 1976

↓Danger down from 48 a year ago

Median 0.05% · usual range -8.01% to 10.7%

The year before past crises: median 10.7%, from -4.01% before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 30.3% before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 7 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED QKRR628BIS 1975–2026-01

Lower than 79% of years since 1983

↓Danger down from 26 a year ago

Median 3.53% · usual range -19.1% to 20.4%

The year before past crises: median 8.93%, from -19.1% before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 18.5% before the Industrial restructuring crisis (1985)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 86% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED QKRR628BIS 1975–2026-01

Higher than 95% of years since 1976

↓Danger down from 17 a year ago

Median 1.28% of GDP · usual range -3.88% of GDP to 5.84% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 0.63% of GDP, from -3.88% of GDP before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 4.32% of GDP before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 7 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 86% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 1976–2025

Lower than 59% of years since 1958

↓Danger down from 54 a year ago

Median 1.78% · usual range -5.27% to 18.8%

The year before past crises: median 1.99%, from -3.05% before the Credit card crisis (2003) to 7.9% before the Corporate debt crisis (1971)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1961 (97.7%), 1964 (60.6%)

Sources: FRED CCUSMA02KRM618N 1957–2026-08

Lower than 96% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 21 a year ago

Median -1.48% · usual range -10.1% to 11.3%

The year before past crises: median 1.06%, from -2.97% before the Credit card crisis (2003) to 18.1% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: FRED RBKRBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 65% of years since 1976

↓Danger down from 41 a year ago

Median 5.58 months of imports · usual range 1.14 months of imports to 7.81 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 6.86 months of imports, from 1.04 months of imports before the Industrial restructuring crisis (1985) to 7.71 months of imports before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 7 crises: Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1976–2025

Higher than 72% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 44 a year ago

Median 0.58% of GDP · usual range 0.19% of GDP to 1.4% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 0.64% of GDP, from 0.17% of GDP before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979) to 1.14% of GDP before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 8 crises: Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1972 (4.51% of GDP)

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Higher than 57% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (57)

Median 2.96 of 4 · usual range 2.27 of 4 to 3.56 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.76 of 4, from 2.26 of 4 before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 3.27 of 4 before the Korean War (1950)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 1.62 of 4 · usual range 1.09 of 4 to 3.3 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.42 of 4, from 1.58 of 4 before the Corporate debt crisis (1971) to 3.38 of 4 before the Credit card crisis (2003)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 82% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 22 a year ago

Median 1.88 of 4 · usual range 0.56 of 4 to 3.28 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.25 of 4, from 0.3 of 4 before the Bond market crunch (2022) to 3.75 of 4 before the Korean War (1950)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 32% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (15)

Median 2.54 of 4 · usual range 0.54 of 4 to 3.13 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.16 of 4, from 0.54 of 4 before the Credit card crisis (2003) to 3.32 of 4 before the Industrial restructuring crisis (1985)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 63% of years since 1850

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 1.84 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Korean War (1950) to 0 of 4 before the Korean War (1950)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 25% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1911 (1.85 of 4), 1912 (1.85 of 4), 1913 (1.85 of 4), 1914 (1.85 of 4), 1915 (1.85 of 4), 1916 (1.85 of 4), 1917 (1.85 of 4), 1918 (1.85 of 4), 1919 (1.75 of 4), 1920 (1.75 of 4), 1921 (1.84 of 4), 1922 (1.84 of 4), 1923 (1.84 of 4), 1924 (1.84 of 4), 1925 (1.84 of 4), 1926 (1.84 of 4), 1927 (1.84 of 4), 1928 (1.84 of 4), 1929 (1.84 of 4), 1930 (1.84 of 4), 1931 (1.84 of 4), 1932 (1.84 of 4), 1933 (1.84 of 4), 1934 (1.84 of 4), 1935 (1.84 of 4), 1936 (1.84 of 4), 1937 (2.09 of 4), 1938 (2.09 of 4), 1939 (2.09 of 4), 1940 (2.09 of 4), 1941 (2.09 of 4), 1942 (2.09 of 4), 1943 (2.09 of 4), 1944 (2.09 of 4), 1945 (2.19 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 91% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 99 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -3.7 points to +12.2 points

The year before past crises: median +11.8 points, from -0.2 points before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +17.7 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 29% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1948 (+8.6 points), 1949 (+13.7 points), 1950 (+11.5 points), 1951 (+7.9 points), 1952 (+8 points), 1960 (+7.6 points), 1965 (-8.8 points), 1987 (+10.3 points), 1988 (+35 points), 1989 (+37.5 points), 1990 (+35.7 points), 1991 (+35.2 points), 1992 (+29.3 points), 1993 (+13.8 points), 1994 (+11.4 points), 1995 (+11.2 points), 1996 (+11.8 points), 1997 (+12.6 points), 1998 (+12.2 points), 1999 (+12.4 points), 2000 (+14.1 points), 2001 (+13.9 points), 2002 (+12.3 points), 2008 (-10 points), 2009 (-9.9 points), 2010 (-9.7 points), 2011 (-9.7 points), 2012 (-10.1 points), 2014 (-6.2 points), 2015 (-6.6 points), 2017 (+13.3 points), 2018 (+18.5 points), 2019 (+17.7 points), 2020 (+18.3 points), 2021 (+15.5 points), 2022 (-7.3 points), 2023 (-17.4 points), 2024 (-15 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 54% of years since 1956

↓Danger down from 96 a year ago

Median 0.09 · usual range 0 to 0.34

The year before past crises: median 0.1, from 0 before the Corporate debt crisis (1971) to 0.37 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 8 crises: Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Asian financial crisis (1997)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUIKOR 1956–2026-04

Lower than 85% of years since 1980

↑Danger up from 13 a year ago

Median 6.61% · usual range 4.72% to 11.2%

The year before past crises: median 6.12%, from 4.18% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 7.02% before the Asian financial crisis (1997)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1980 (33.9%), 1981 (25.9%)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2026-07 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 69% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (69)

Median 10.9% · usual range 7.46% to 18.2%

The year before past crises: median 11.4%, from 5.62% before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 14% before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Lower than 81% of years since 1850

Median 1.66 of 4 · usual range 0.92 of 4 to 2.25 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.05 of 4, from 0.86 of 4 before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 1.5 of 4 before the Korean War (1950)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 94% of years since 1953

Median 17.8% of GDP · usual range 14.4% of GDP to 21.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 16.7% of GDP, from 14% of GDP before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 24.1% of GDP before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1953–2024

Higher than 54% of years since 1850

Median 0.52 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 1.65 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.5 of 4, from 0.08 of 4 before the Credit card crisis (2003) to 1.79 of 4 before the Korean War (1950)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1850

Median 0.08 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.61 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.13 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Korean War (1950) to 0.62 of 4 before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 93% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (7)

Median 60 of 100 · usual range 18.8 of 100 to 67.5 of 100

The year before past crises: median 29 of 100, from 11.3 of 100 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 61.4 of 100 before the Korean War (1950)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 18% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2003 (14.7 of 100), 2004 (13.2 of 100), 2005 (13.2 of 100), 2006 (13.2 of 100), 2007 (13.2 of 100), 2017 (13.4 of 100), 2018 (12.9 of 100), 2019 (11.3 of 100), 2020 (11.3 of 100), 2022 (12.4 of 100), 2023 (15.4 of 100)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 83% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 97 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -4.8 points to +11.1 points

The year before past crises: median +4.2 points, from 0 points before the Corporate debt crisis (1971) to +25.2 points before the Korean War (1950)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 30% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1948 (+23.2 points), 1949 (+25.2 points), 1950 (+23.8 points), 1987 (+21.8 points), 1988 (+41.7 points), 1989 (+42.2 points), 1990 (+42 points), 1991 (+42 points), 1992 (+22.5 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 76% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 99 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -7.5 points to +16.2 points

The year before past crises: median +7.4 points, from -2.2 points before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979) to +32.3 points before the Korean War (1950)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1896 (+26.5 points), 1946 (+22.8 points), 1947 (+22 points), 1948 (+32.7 points), 1949 (+32.3 points), 1960 (+25.4 points), 1965 (-24 points), 1987 (+28.8 points), 1988 (+50.3 points), 1989 (+49.5 points), 1990 (+47.8 points), 1991 (+46.1 points), 1992 (+31.9 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 97% of years since 1850

↓Danger down from 9 a year ago

Median 2.68 of 4 · usual range 1.04 of 4 to 3.08 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.3 of 4, from 0.13 of 4 before the Bond market crunch (2022) to 2.95 of 4 before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 9 crises: Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 22% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2020 (0.13 of 4), 2021 (0.13 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 51% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (49)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Corporate debt crisis (1971) to 0 before the Corporate debt crisis (1971)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Higher than 50% of years since 1989

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 0 before the Asian financial crisis (1997)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 97% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (97)

Median 129 · usual range 68.2 to 250

The year before past crises: median 109, from 50.2 before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 257 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2025 (529)

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1990–2026-07

Higher than 80% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 63 a year ago

Median 0.13 % of articles · usual range 0.01 % of articles to 0.39 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.16 % of articles, from 0.08 % of articles before the Korean War (1950) to 0.5 % of articles before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Global financial crisis (2008), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1950 (2.42 % of articles), 1951 (2.83 % of articles), 1952 (1.79 % of articles), 1953 (1.52 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 84% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 10 a year ago

Median 8.65% · usual range 6.52% to 10.1%

The year before past crises: median 7.9%, from 6.01% before the Asian financial crisis (1997) to 9.83% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 7.51 per 100 workers · usual range 6.14 per 100 workers to 20.3 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 9.63 per 100 workers, from 6.14 per 100 workers before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979) to 23.3 per 100 workers before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 1.69%, from -12.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 73.3% before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 0.59%, from -4.83% before the Oil shock and political crisis (1979) to 13.8% before the Industrial restructuring crisis (1985)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 7 crises: Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Global financial crisis (2008), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 17.5, from 15.4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 27.2 before the Credit card crisis (2003)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median 6.45%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 52.6% before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 8.88%, from -3.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 27% before the Bond market crunch (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 75% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 154, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 83% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 83.7, from 58.6 before the Bond market crunch (2022) to 111 before the Credit card crisis (2003)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Korean War (1950), Corporate debt crisis (1971), Oil shock and political crisis (1979), Industrial restructuring crisis (1985), Asian financial crisis (1997), Credit card crisis (2003), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Bond market crunch (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09