Japan

Lower than 75% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 56 a year ago

Median 2.84% · usual range -1.83% to 10.8%

The year before past crises: median 3.18%, from -3.19% before the Matsukata deflation (1882) to 13.2% before the Panic of 1907

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1945 (-22.7%), 1946 (-30.2%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED JPNRGDPEXP 2021–2026-04

Lower than 56% of years since 1930

→Danger about the same as a year ago (44)

Median 2.53% · usual range 1.3% to 5%

The year before past crises: median 2.35%, from 1.4% before the Oil shock (1973) to 3.9% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1930–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTJPM156S 2021–2026-07

Higher than 54% of years since 1931

↑Danger up from 15 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -0.4 pp to +0.4 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.05 pp, from -0.2 pp before the Asset bubble collapse (1990) to +0.2 pp before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Asset bubble collapse (1990), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1930–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTJPM156S 2021–2026-07

Higher than 69% of years since 1885

→Danger about the same as a year ago (40)

Median 22.6% of GDP · usual range 14.3% of GDP to 31.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 20% of GDP, from 14.8% of GDP before the Panic of 1890 to 34.1% of GDP before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 12 crises: Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1885–2020 · World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2021–2024

Lower than 81% of years since 1875

↑Danger up from 75 a year ago

Median 2.52% · usual range -1.96% to 9.48%

The year before past crises: median 0.58%, from -10.4% before the World War II and post-war inflation (1941) to 9.47% before the Post-war crash of 1920

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 13 crises: Panic of 1890, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1945 (-36%), 1946 (44.8%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1874–2019 · World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2020–2024

Lower than 75% of years since 1971

↑Danger up from 66 a year ago

Median 4.91% · usual range -1.28% to 15%

The year before past crises: median 4.86%, from -1.42% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 9.58% before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1971–2024

Higher than 90% of years since 1975

↓Danger down from 28 a year ago

Median 3.5 · usual range -27.5 to 22.5

The year before past crises: median 14, from 1.25 before the Banking crisis of 1997 to 49.3 before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Bank of Japan Tankan 1975–2026-07

Higher than 58% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 5 a year ago

Median 2.32% · usual range -4.07% to 12.2%

The year before past crises: median 2.21%, from -4.54% before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927) to 33.1% before the Post-war crash of 1920

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 13 crises: Panic of 1907, Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1872 (-26.9%), 1879 (33.3%), 1918 (34.6%), 1944 (35.3%), 1945 (976%), 1946 (90.7%), 1947 (125%), 1948 (75.9%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2021–2025

Higher than 80% of years since 1880

→Danger about the same as a year ago (78)

Median -0.02 pp · usual range -1.78 pp to +1.26 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.18 pp, from -1.75 pp before the Panic of 1907 to +2.3 pp before the Banking panic of 1901

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), Oil shock (1973), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1879–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01JPM156N 2021–2026-07

Lower than 76% of years since 1879

↓Danger down from 55 a year ago

Median 6.98% · usual range 0.06% to 10.4%

The year before past crises: median 7.07%, from -0.05% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 11.5% before the Banking panic of 1901

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1879–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01JPM156N 2021–2026-07

Lower than 86% of years since 1879

↓Danger down from 80 a year ago

Median +2.37 pp · usual range -2.44 pp to +12.8 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.6 pp, from -23.8 pp before the Post-war crash of 1920 to +13.4 pp before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 12 crises: Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Shōwa depression (1930), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (-27.5 pp), 1919 (-23.8 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01JPM156N 2021–2026-07 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2021–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median 7.81% · usual range -0.82% to 30.3%

The year before past crises: median 4.23%, from -3.62% before the Matsukata deflation (1882) to 32.3% before the Panic of 1907

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 13 crises: Panic of 1890, Shōwa depression (1930), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1945 (271%), 1947 (79%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 2021–2025

Lower than 81% of years since 1880

↓Danger down from 63 a year ago

Median +5.05 pp of GDP · usual range -8.95 pp of GDP to +14.7 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +5.53 pp of GDP, from -8.1 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +25.6 pp of GDP before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 13 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1949 (-50.4 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1875–2017 · FRED QJPPAM770A 2018–2025-10

Higher than 92% of years since 1948

→Danger about the same as a year ago (94)

Median 12.9% of GDP · usual range 0.73% of GDP to 28.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 20.2% of GDP, from 6.32% of GDP before the Oil shock (1973) to 28.9% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1948–2020 · FRED QJPHAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 61% of years since 1884

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median -0.78 pp of GDP · usual range -7.61 pp of GDP to +5.25 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +0.7 pp of GDP, from -6.36 pp of GDP before the Shōwa depression (1930) to +8.12 pp of GDP before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 12 crises: Panic of 1890, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1875–2017 · FRED QJPPAM770A 2018–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1875

→Danger about the same as a year ago (95)

Median 59.5% of GDP · usual range 15% of GDP to 93.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 59.3% of GDP, from 11.5% of GDP before the Matsukata deflation (1882) to 97.6% of GDP before the Banking crisis of 1997

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1875–2017 · FRED QJPPAM770A 2018–2025-10

Higher than 81% of years since 1948

↑Danger up from 77 a year ago

Median 58.1% of GDP · usual range 37.4% of GDP to 76.6% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 68.7% of GDP, from 53.1% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 77.9% of GDP before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Oil shock (1973), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1948–2020 · FRED QJPNAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 59% of years since 1893

Median 4.38 % of assets · usual range 2.61 % of assets to 27.5 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 5.89 % of assets, from 3.26 % of assets before the Oil shock (1973) to 35.7 % of assets before the Banking panic of 1901

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 11 crises: Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1893–2020 · World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2021–2022

Lower than 58% of years since 2010

Median 1.4 % of loans · usual range 1.12 % of loans to 2.44 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 1.11 % of loans, from 1.11 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.11 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 1 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2010–2022

Lower than 95% of years since 1893

Median 93.8% · usual range 66.1% to 113%

The year before past crises: median 93.3%, from 55.4% before the World War II and post-war inflation (1941) to 141% before the Banking panic of 1901

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 11 crises: World War II and post-war inflation (1941)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1893–2020 · World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 2021–2021

Higher than 54% of years since 1975

↑Danger up from 49 a year ago

Median -14% · usual range -29.8% to 5.5%

The year before past crises: median -20.9%, from -30.8% before the Asset bubble collapse (1990) to -14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 26% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Bank of Japan Tankan 1975–2026-07

Higher than 63% of years since 1999

↑Danger up from 43 a year ago

Median 7.43 % of income · usual range 7.02 % of income to 8.81 % of income

The year before past crises: median 7.6 % of income, from 7.25 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 7.95 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 74% of years since 1999

↑Danger up from 46 a year ago

Median 15 % of income · usual range 13.4 % of income to 18.1 % of income

The year before past crises: median 14.5 % of income, from 13.8 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 15.2 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 92% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 97 a year ago

Median 43.5% of GDP · usual range 10.6% of GDP to 207% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 40.4% of GDP, from 15.6% of GDP before the Oil shock (1973) to 235% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1875–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 67% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 72 a year ago

Median 0.24% of GDP · usual range -5.18% of GDP to 2.88% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 0.12% of GDP, from -5.51% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 4.06% of GDP before the Post-war crash of 1920

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 13 crises: Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1875–2019 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2020–2025

Lower than 95% of years since 1880

↓Danger down from 43 a year ago

Median +5.37 pp of GDP · usual range -14.2 pp of GDP to +39.5 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +7.23 pp of GDP, from -33.3 pp of GDP before the Post-war crash of 1920 to +47.6 pp of GDP before the Panic of 1907

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 13 crises: Post-war crash of 1920

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1944 (+133 pp of GDP), 1948 (-114 pp of GDP), 1949 (-185 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1875–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 52% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 40 a year ago

Median -0.84 pp · usual range -13.2 pp to +8.52 pp

The year before past crises: median -2.46 pp, from -36.9 pp before the Post-war crash of 1920 to +10.2 pp before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1945 (-949 pp), 1946 (-56.8 pp), 1947 (-132 pp), 1948 (-87.1 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01JPM156N 2021–2026-08 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2021–2025 · FRED JPNRGDPEXP 2021–2025

Lower than 80% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 15 a year ago

Median 5.56% · usual range 1.13% to 7.98%

The year before past crises: median 5.58%, from -0.11% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 7.08% before the Banking crisis of 1871

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01JPM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 93% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (91)

Median -0.03 pp · usual range -0.78 pp to +0.64 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.05 pp, from -0.58 pp before the Oil shock (1973) to +0.96 pp before the Post-war crash of 1920

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 13 crises: Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1920 (+1.81 pp), 1948 (+1.85 pp), 1953 (+4.68 pp), 1954 (-3.86 pp), 1955 (+2.28 pp), 1957 (+3.3 pp), 1958 (-2.8 pp), 1959 (+2.3 pp), 1961 (+4.72 pp), 1962 (-5.03 pp), 1964 (-2.67 pp), 1974 (+2 pp), 1990 (+2.31 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01JPM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 88% of years since 1879

↓Danger down from 25 a year ago

Median -0.85 pp · usual range -4.32 pp to +1.54 pp

The year before past crises: median -1.34 pp, from -6.84 pp before the Banking panic of 1901 to +1.97 pp before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 12 crises: Oil shock (1973), Banking crisis of 1997

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01JPM156N 2021–2026-07 · FRED IR3TIB01JPM156N 2021–2025

Lower than 70% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 24 a year ago

Median +1.87 pp · usual range -7.88 pp to +9.89 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.59 pp, from -26.7 pp before the Post-war crash of 1920 to +11.1 pp before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 13 crises: Matsukata deflation (1882), Banking panic of 1901, Post-war crash of 1920, World War II and post-war inflation (1941), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1872 (+33.3 pp), 1879 (-26.9 pp), 1918 (-29.2 pp), 1919 (-26.7 pp), 1944 (-31.5 pp), 1945 (-972 pp), 1946 (-87 pp), 1947 (-122 pp), 1948 (-70.4 pp), 1949 (-26.4 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01JPM156N 2021–2026-08 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2021–2025

Higher than 90% of years since 1880

↓Danger down from 30 a year ago

Median 2.53% · usual range -25.5% to 29.5%

The year before past crises: median 12.6%, from -30.2% before the Banking panic of 1901 to 54.4% before the Panic of 1907

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 13 crises: Panic of 1907, Oil shock (1973)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01JPM661N 2021–2026-08 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2021–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1887

↑Danger up from 88 a year ago

Median -2.07% · usual range -43.1% to 70.9%

The year before past crises: median 8.55%, from -43.4% before the Banking panic of 1901 to 140% before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 12 crises: Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Oil shock (1973), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01JPM661N 2021–2026-08 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2021–2025

Lower than 88% of years since 1959

↓Danger down from 46 a year ago

Median 13.4% · usual range 7.75% to 19.9%

The year before past crises: median 10.6%, from 5.83% before the Oil shock (1973) to 14.9% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Oil shock (1973)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1879–2020 · FRED SPASTT01JPM661N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 85% of years since 1879

→Danger about the same as a year ago (16)

Median -18.3% · usual range -50.8% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -8.05%, from -66.9% before the Banking panic of 1901 to 0% before the Panic of 1907

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 13 crises: Panic of 1907, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01JPM661N 2021–2026-08 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2021–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1975

→Danger about the same as a year ago (97)

Median 65.9% of GDP · usual range 32.9% of GDP to 125% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 106% of GDP, from 60.1% of GDP before the Banking crisis of 1997 to 134% of GDP before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1975–2025

Higher than 51% of years since 1914

↓Danger down from 26 a year ago

Median 2.03% · usual range -7.55% to 23%

The year before past crises: median 1.12%, from -11.7% before the World War II and post-war inflation (1941) to 18.1% before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 9 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1914 (75.2%), 1945 (-87.7%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1913–2020 · FRED QJPR628BIS 2021–2025-10

Higher than 53% of years since 1921

→Danger about the same as a year ago (52)

Median 7.32% · usual range -20% to 122%

The year before past crises: median 6.83%, from -20% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 62.9% before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1913–2020 · FRED QJPR628BIS 2021–2025-10

Higher than 97% of years since 1875

→Danger about the same as a year ago (4)

Median 0.7% of GDP · usual range -2.14% of GDP to 3.8% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 0.51% of GDP, from -2.27% of GDP before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927) to 4.63% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 13 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1875–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2021–2025

Higher than 82% of years since 1874

↑Danger up from 60 a year ago

Median 0.25% · usual range -10.6% to 13.9%

The year before past crises: median 0.51%, from -13.1% before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927) to 14% before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 13 crises: Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), Oil shock (1973), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1932 (73.7%), 1945 (60.8%), 1946 (2,509%), 1947 (32.2%), 1948 (30.3%), 1949 (91.9%), 1950 (-28.6%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CCUSMA02JPM618N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 100% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 25 a year ago

Median -13.2% · usual range -22.5% to -2.19%

The year before past crises: median -16.7%, from -23.5% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to -9.99% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: FRED RBJPBIS 1994–2026-07

Lower than 62% of years since 1996

↓Danger down from 75 a year ago

Median 14.8 months of imports · usual range 8.08 months of imports to 17.2 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 15 months of imports, from 5.41 months of imports before the Banking crisis of 1997 to 15.4 months of imports before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1996–2025

Higher than 96% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 19 a year ago

Median 0.05% of GDP · usual range 0% of GDP to 0.58% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 0.05% of GDP, from -0.03% of GDP before the Asset bubble collapse (1990) to 0.76% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Lower than 57% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (43)

Median 0.89 of 4 · usual range 0.53 of 4 to 1.45 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.89 of 4, from 0.53 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1997 to 1.45 of 4 before the World War II and post-war inflation (1941)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 11 crises: Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 52% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (48)

Median 0.34 of 4 · usual range 0.12 of 4 to 1.38 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.38 of 4, from 0.12 of 4 before the Banking panic of 1901 to 2.22 of 4 before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 11 crises: Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1965 (1.96 of 4), 1966 (1.96 of 4), 1967 (1.96 of 4), 1968 (2.58 of 4), 1969 (2.58 of 4), 1970 (2.22 of 4), 1971 (2.22 of 4), 1972 (2.22 of 4), 1973 (2.22 of 4), 1974 (2.22 of 4), 2011 (2.06 of 4), 2012 (1.64 of 4), 2013 (1.64 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 64% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (64)

Median 0.55 of 4 · usual range 0.3 of 4 to 1.48 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.55 of 4, from 0.3 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1997 to 2.55 of 4 before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 11 crises: Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 32% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1950 (1.17 of 4), 1951 (1.17 of 4), 1952 (1.17 of 4), 1953 (1.17 of 4), 1954 (1.17 of 4), 1955 (1.17 of 4), 1956 (1.17 of 4), 1957 (1.48 of 4), 1958 (1.48 of 4), 1959 (1.48 of 4), 1960 (1.48 of 4), 1961 (2.55 of 4), 1962 (2.55 of 4), 1963 (2.55 of 4), 1964 (2.55 of 4), 1965 (2.55 of 4), 1966 (2.55 of 4), 1967 (2.55 of 4), 1968 (2.55 of 4), 1969 (2.55 of 4), 1970 (2.55 of 4), 1971 (2.55 of 4), 1972 (2.55 of 4), 1973 (1.33 of 4), 1974 (1.33 of 4), 1975 (1.33 of 4), 1976 (1.33 of 4), 1977 (1.33 of 4), 1978 (1.33 of 4), 1979 (1.33 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 99% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (1)

Median 0.56 of 4 · usual range 0.33 of 4 to 1.7 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.74 of 4, from 0.28 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.7 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1871

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 14 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1857 (3.19 of 4), 1858 (3.19 of 4), 1859 (3.19 of 4), 1860 (3.19 of 4), 1861 (3.19 of 4), 1862 (3.19 of 4), 1863 (3.19 of 4), 1864 (3.19 of 4), 1865 (3.59 of 4), 1866 (3.59 of 4), 1867 (3.59 of 4), 1868 (3.59 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 53% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (47)

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1871 to 0.03 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1871, Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2024

Lower than 89% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 94 a year ago

Median +0.2 points · usual range -0.8 points to +6 points

The year before past crises: median +0.5 points, from -2 points before the World War II and post-war inflation (1941) to +6 points before the Banking crisis of 1871

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1871, Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1870 (+6 points), 1871 (+6 points), 1872 (+6 points), 1873 (+5.9 points), 1890 (+5.8 points), 1891 (+7.3 points), 1892 (+6.9 points), 1893 (+6.8 points), 1894 (+6.9 points), 1946 (+9.1 points), 1947 (+17.6 points), 1948 (+18.7 points), 1949 (+18.7 points), 1950 (+16.6 points), 1951 (+9.1 points), 1952 (+19.5 points), 1953 (+33.4 points), 1954 (+33.4 points), 1955 (+36.6 points), 1956 (+37 points), 1957 (+18.7 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 86% of years since 1953

↓Danger down from 97 a year ago

Median 0.12 · usual range 0.05 to 0.31

The year before past crises: median 0.15, from 0.09 before the Banking crisis of 1997 to 0.31 before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2025 (0.69)

Sources: FRED WUIJPN 1953–2026-04

Lower than 86% of years since 1983

↓Danger down from 91 a year ago

Median 41.7 · usual range 35.2 to 48

The year before past crises: median 44.6, from 38.9 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 49.3 before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 25% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED CSCICP02JPM460S 1983–2026-08

Higher than 60% of years since 1930

→Danger about the same as a year ago (60)

Median 5.08% · usual range 2.87% to 10.6%

The year before past crises: median 3.96%, from 2.82% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 6.03% before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 28% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1948 (77.1%), 1949 (33.6%), 1951 (19.9%), 1974 (25.9%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTJPM156S 2021–2026-07 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2021–2025

Lower than 55% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (45)

Median 12.8% · usual range 10.3% to 21.4%

The year before past crises: median 18%, from 10.8% before the Oil shock (1973) to 21.5% before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 12 crises: Oil shock (1973), Banking crisis of 1997, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Lower than 95% of years since 1850

Median 0.79 of 4 · usual range 0.26 of 4 to 1.86 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.88 of 4, from 0.18 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.86 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1871

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 14 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 89% of years since 1875

Median 13% of GDP · usual range 8.86% of GDP to 17.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 12.9% of GDP, from 7.49% of GDP before the Post-war crash of 1920 to 17.3% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 13 crises: Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1875–2019 · IMF Public Finances in Modern History 2020–2024

Lower than 85% of years since 1850

Median 0.27 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.5 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.3 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1871 to 0.59 of 4 before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1871, Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2024

Lower than 85% of years since 1850

Median 0.13 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.22 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.13 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1871 to 0.22 of 4 before the Banking panic of 1901

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1871, Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2024

Lower than 98% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (2)

Median 17.7 of 100 · usual range 10.8 of 100 to 30.1 of 100

The year before past crises: median 22.4 of 100, from 7.5 of 100 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 29.7 of 100 before the Panic of 1890

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 14 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 1855

↑Danger up from 83 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -0.3 points to +7 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -3.4 points before the Matsukata deflation (1882) to +27 points before the Banking crisis of 1871

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1871, Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), World War II and post-war inflation (1941), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1860 (+12.5 points), 1861 (+12.5 points), 1862 (+12.5 points), 1863 (+10.6 points), 1864 (+10.6 points), 1869 (+11.8 points), 1870 (+27 points), 1871 (+27 points), 1872 (+24.8 points), 1873 (+21.7 points), 1874 (+15.2 points), 1900 (+8.2 points), 1901 (+7.9 points), 1902 (+7.9 points), 1903 (+7 points), 1904 (+7 points), 1948 (+8.7 points), 1949 (+8.7 points), 1950 (+8.7 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 84% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (83)

Median 0 points · usual range -5.4 points to +5.7 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -21.9 points before the World War II and post-war inflation (1941) to +21.4 points before the Banking crisis of 1871

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1871, Matsukata deflation (1882), Panic of 1890, Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Post-war crash of 1920, Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1868 (+5.5 points), 1869 (+12.5 points), 1870 (+21.4 points), 1871 (+21.4 points), 1872 (+21.4 points), 1873 (+15.9 points), 1874 (+8.9 points), 1900 (+3.7 points), 1901 (+5.7 points), 1902 (+5.7 points), 1903 (+5.7 points), 1904 (+4.3 points), 1925 (-5.1 points), 1926 (-8.3 points), 1927 (-8.3 points), 1928 (-8.3 points), 1929 (-8.3 points), 1930 (-5.9 points), 1933 (-3.3 points), 1934 (-5.2 points), 1935 (-6.2 points), 1936 (-7.3 points), 1937 (-20.6 points), 1938 (-21.3 points), 1939 (-19.9 points), 1940 (-21.9 points), 1941 (-20.8 points), 1942 (-7.5 points), 1943 (-5.4 points), 1944 (-4.9 points), 1946 (+57 points), 1947 (+70.2 points), 1948 (+70.2 points), 1949 (+71 points), 1950 (+68.5 points), 1951 (+14 points), 1953 (+9.2 points), 1954 (+8.4 points), 1955 (+11.3 points), 1956 (+11.3 points), 1957 (+10.6 points), 2013 (-5.4 points), 2014 (-5.5 points), 2015 (-5.5 points), 2016 (-5.5 points), 2017 (-5.3 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 98% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (2)

Median 1.8 of 4 · usual range 0.4 of 4 to 3.16 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.8 of 4, from 0.08 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 2.74 of 4 before the World War II and post-war inflation (1941)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 14 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (13), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil shock (1973) to 0 before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Higher than 50% of years since 1989

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Asset bubble collapse (1990) to 0 before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 56% of years since 1987

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 97.3 · usual range 78 to 138

The year before past crises: median 82.3, from 79.7 before the Asset bubble collapse (1990) to 126 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 19% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1987–2026-07

Lower than 75% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 35 a year ago

Median 0.23 % of articles · usual range 0.14 % of articles to 0.78 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.22 % of articles, from 0.1 % of articles before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927) to 0.83 % of articles before the World War II and post-war inflation (1941)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 11 crises: Panic of 1907, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1904 (1.6 % of articles), 1939 (1.06 % of articles), 1941 (1.65 % of articles), 1942 (3.32 % of articles), 1943 (2.85 % of articles), 1944 (3.38 % of articles), 1945 (3.26 % of articles), 1951 (1.37 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 96% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 7 a year ago

Median 6.65% · usual range 4.01% to 9.53%

The year before past crises: median 6.73%, from 3.94% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 7.87% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 19.1 per 100 workers · usual range 9.51 per 100 workers to 48.2 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 21.9 per 100 workers, from 10.7 per 100 workers before the Oil shock (1973) to 48.5 per 100 workers before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 9.47%, from -12.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 22.8% before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 4.92%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 9.82% before the Asset bubble collapse (1990)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 16.5, from 15.4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 17.5 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median 6.45%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 8.88%, from -3.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 153, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 72.4, from 37.7 before the Shōwa financial crisis (1927) to 200 before the World War II and post-war inflation (1941)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 11 crises: Banking panic of 1901, Panic of 1907, Shōwa financial crisis (1927), Shōwa depression (1930), Oil shock (1973), Asset bubble collapse (1990), Banking crisis of 1997, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 15% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09