Italy

Lower than 72% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 81 a year ago

Median 2.14% · usual range -1.42% to 6.52%

The year before past crises: median 1.71%, from -9.93% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921) to 9.97% before the World War I (1915)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 18 crises: Building boom bust (1887), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Sovereign debt crisis (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1945 (-21.7%), 1946 (26%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CLVMNACSCAB1GQIT 2021–2026-04

Lower than 68% of years since 1919

→Danger about the same as a year ago (32)

Median 7.59% · usual range 2.42% to 11.1%

The year before past crises: median 6.22%, from 0.87% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921) to 11.9% before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 12 crises: Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), World War II (1940)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1919–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTITM156S 2021–2026-07

Lower than 54% of years since 1920

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -1.13 pp to +0.94 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.22 pp, from -1.34 pp before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921) to +0.61 pp before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 12 crises: Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Global financial crisis (2008), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1919–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTITM156S 2021–2026-07

Higher than 57% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median -0.33% · usual range -4.06% to 5.26%

The year before past crises: median 1.12%, from -1.2% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 6.96% before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 28% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2009 (-18.6%)

Sources: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m) 1990–2026-08

Higher than 77% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (55)

Median 17.6% of GDP · usual range 8.95% of GDP to 24.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 16.2% of GDP, from 8.11% of GDP before the Banca Romana scandal (1893) to 26.1% of GDP before the Lira crisis (1976)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 18 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 67% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 64 a year ago

Median 1.88% · usual range -2.46% to 5.97%

The year before past crises: median 1.3%, from -2.8% before the Building boom bust (1887) to 7.82% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 18 crises: Panic of 1907, Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1947 (20.9%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2021–2025

Lower than 75% of years since 1971

↓Danger down from 83 a year ago

Median 4.11% · usual range -1.69% to 10.8%

The year before past crises: median 4.99%, from -1.95% before the Lira leaves the ERM (1992) to 11.6% before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1971–2025

Lower than 55% of years since 1963

↓Danger down from 65 a year ago

Median -4.63 · usual range -24.4 to 5.64

The year before past crises: median -3.16, from -37.5 before the Lira crisis (1976) to 16 before the Oil shock (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1974), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Global financial crisis (2008), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED BSCICP02ITM460S 1963–2026-08

Higher than 57% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 25 a year ago

Median 2.61% · usual range -1.56% to 16.7%

The year before past crises: median 1.74%, from -5.16% before the Banking crisis of 1935 to 31.4% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 18 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1917 (41.5%), 1918 (39.4%), 1920 (31.4%), 1943 (67.7%), 1944 (344%), 1945 (97%), 1947 (62.1%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CP0000ITM086NEST 2021–2026-08

Higher than 74% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 14 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -1.65 pp to +1.52 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.01 pp, from -3.94 pp before the Lira crisis (1976) to +1.75 pp before the Oil shock (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 16 crises: Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Lira crisis (1976), Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (+7.65 pp), 1976 (+5.04 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01ITM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 52% of years since 2001

↓Danger down from 44 a year ago

Median 1.82% · usual range 0.57% to 2.77%

The year before past crises: median 1.19%, from 0.54% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.82% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: Eurostat (prc_hicp_minr) 2000–2026-09

Lower than 87% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (77)

Median 4.71% · usual range 2.13% to 12.2%

The year before past crises: median 4.75%, from -0.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 12.6% before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 16 crises: Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1976 (15.7%), 1980 (15.9%), 1981 (19.7%), 1982 (19.4%), 1983 (17.9%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01ITM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 76% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 26 a year ago

Median +1.91 pp · usual range -4.67 pp to +6.18 pp

The year before past crises: median +3.7 pp, from -6.24 pp before the Lira crisis (1976) to +8.91 pp before the Banking crisis of 1935

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 16 crises: Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, World War I (1915), World War II (1940), Global financial crisis (2008), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1943 (-62.7 pp), 1944 (-339 pp), 1945 (-92.2 pp), 1947 (-57.2 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01ITM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000ITM086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 69% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 47 a year ago

Median 7.47% · usual range 0.35% to 22.4%

The year before past crises: median 6.68%, from -1.54% before the Banking crisis of 1935 to 24.6% before the Lira crisis (1976)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 18 crises: Building boom bust (1887), War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Global financial crisis (2008), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1944 (69.6%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · ECB (BSI) 2021–2026-08

Lower than 97% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 15 a year ago

Median +3.39 pp of GDP · usual range -12.2 pp of GDP to +13.1 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +3.62 pp of GDP, from -15.6 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +20.1 pp of GDP before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 17 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QITPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 75% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (76)

Median 9.07% of GDP · usual range 3.12% of GDP to 42.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 27.9% of GDP, from 8.44% of GDP before the Lira crisis (1976) to 43.5% of GDP before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1950–2020 · FRED QITHAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 83% of years since 1879

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median +0.71 pp of GDP · usual range -10.4 pp of GDP to +8.32 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +1.46 pp of GDP, from -14.3 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +8.79 pp of GDP before the Lira leaves the ERM (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 17 crises: World War II (1940), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QITPAM770A 2021–2025

Higher than 83% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (84)

Median 38.1% of GDP · usual range 14.6% of GDP to 78.2% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 44.7% of GDP, from 8.46% of GDP before the Banking crisis of 1873 to 100% of GDP before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QITPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 92% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (9)

Median 43.6% of GDP · usual range 32.6% of GDP to 54.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 50.3% of GDP, from 34.2% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 58.7% of GDP before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 8 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1950–2020 · FRED QITNAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 55% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (54)

Median 6.45 % of assets · usual range 2.07 % of assets to 14.3 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 7.58 % of assets, from 1.77 % of assets before the Oil shock (1974) to 16.2 % of assets before the Panic of 1907

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Global financial crisis (2008), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 98% of years since 2005

↓Danger down from 12 a year ago

Median 7 % of loans · usual range 2.77 % of loans to 17.1 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 8.39 % of loans, from 5.78 % of loans before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 18.1 % of loans before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2005–2025

Lower than 83% of years since 1870

Median 99.4% · usual range 81% to 121%

The year before past crises: median 101%, from 85.6% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921) to 165% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 18 crises: Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 2021–2021

Lower than 91% of years since 2003

→Danger about the same as a year ago (9)

Median 5% · usual range -7.21% to 43.8%

The year before past crises: median 4.88%, from -28.1% before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016) to 9.38% before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Bank bad-loan crisis (2016)

Sources: ECB (BLS) 2003–2026-07

Lower than 72% of years since 1999

→Danger about the same as a year ago (28)

Median 4.35 % of income · usual range 3.48 % of income to 5.1 % of income

The year before past crises: median 4.73 % of income, from 4.28 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 5.05 % of income before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Lower than 96% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 7 a year ago

Median 10.3 % of income · usual range 9.6 % of income to 13 % of income

The year before past crises: median 12 % of income, from 9.8 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 12.8 % of income before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 95% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (94)

Median 96% of GDP · usual range 32.3% of GDP to 134% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 96.5% of GDP, from 48.8% of GDP before the Oil shock (1974) to 154% of GDP before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 17 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 55% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 59 a year ago

Median -2.76% of GDP · usual range -12.7% of GDP to -0.02% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -2.85% of GDP, from -12.8% of GDP before the World War I (1915) to 0% of GDP before the Banking crisis of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 91% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 45 a year ago

Median +2.76 pp of GDP · usual range -16.8 pp of GDP to +22.7 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +6 pp of GDP, from -48.8 pp of GDP before the Great Depression banking crisis (1930) to +62.7 pp of GDP before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 17 crises: Great Depression banking crisis (1930), World War II (1940)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 57% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 55 a year ago

Median +0.59 pp · usual range -10.5 pp to +6.49 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.68 pp, from -15.1 pp before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921) to +9.29 pp before the Banking crisis of 1935

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Panic of 1907, World War I (1915), Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1916 (-31.5 pp), 1917 (-41.5 pp), 1918 (-43.5 pp), 1943 (-54.1 pp), 1944 (-323 pp), 1945 (-69.3 pp), 1946 (-39.8 pp), 1947 (-72.1 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01ITM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000ITM086NEST 2021–2025 · FRED CLVMNACSCAB1GQIT 2021–2025

Lower than 90% of years since 1973

Median 11.5 % of spending · usual range 7.81 % of spending to 21.8 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 9.59 % of spending, from 6.54 % of spending before the Oil shock (1974) to 21.2 % of spending before the Lira leaves the ERM (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1974)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 20% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1973–2023

Lower than 92% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 6 a year ago

Median 5.71% · usual range 4.23% to 11.5%

The year before past crises: median 5.51%, from 1.71% before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016) to 13.3% before the Lira leaves the ERM (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 18 crises: World War I (1915), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1977 (14.6%), 1980 (15.3%), 1981 (19.4%), 1982 (20.2%), 1983 (18.3%), 1984 (15.6%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01ITM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 81% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 41 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -1.18 pp to +1.1 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.01 pp, from -1.23 pp before the World War I (1915) to +1.89 pp before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 15 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1981 (+4.11 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01ITM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 57% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (43)

Median +1.04 pp · usual range -0.37 pp to +2.64 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.49 pp, from -0.42 pp before the World War I (1915) to +2.9 pp before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 16 crises: Banca Romana scandal (1893), Banking crisis of 1935, Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01ITM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED IR3TIB01ITM156N 2021–2025

Lower than 78% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 34 a year ago

Median +3.08 pp · usual range -6.52 pp to +7.4 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.76 pp, from -25 pp before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921) to +10.8 pp before the Banking crisis of 1935

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1916 (-19.5 pp), 1917 (-35.1 pp), 1918 (-34.5 pp), 1920 (-25 pp), 1943 (-59.5 pp), 1944 (-338 pp), 1945 (-91 pp), 1947 (-57.4 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01ITM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000ITM086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 67% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (34)

Median +1.23 pp · usual range -0.43 pp to +4.82 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.21 pp, from -1.86 pp before the Oil shock (1974) to +5.89 pp before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 18 crises: World War I (1915), Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, Oil shock (1974), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1982 (+11.3 pp), 1983 (+10.3 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01ITM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED IRLTLT01DEM156N 2021–2025

Higher than 85% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (13)

Median 0.18% · usual range -23.9% to 26.9%

The year before past crises: median -2.64%, from -40.7% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921) to 30.3% before the World War II (1940)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 18 crises: World War II (1940), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1946 (120%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01ITM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000ITM086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1878

↑Danger up from 92 a year ago

Median -4.81% · usual range -52.3% to 45.5%

The year before past crises: median -11.9%, from -65.9% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921) to 57.2% before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 17 of 17 crises: Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01ITM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000ITM086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 87% of years since 1957

↓Danger down from 32 a year ago

Median 16.3% · usual range 9.27% to 26.7%

The year before past crises: median 15%, from 12% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 28.2% before the Oil shock (1974)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 8 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01ITM661N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 87% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (14)

Median -17.6% · usual range -56.7% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -22%, from -65.9% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921) to 0% before the Banking crisis of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), World War II (1940), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01ITM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000ITM086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 68% of years since 1975

Median 18.2% of GDP · usual range 4.37% of GDP to 45.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 18.2% of GDP, from 4.73% of GDP before the Lira crisis (1976) to 48.3% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1975–2014

Higher than 71% of years since 1971

↑Danger up from 38 a year ago

Median 0.35% · usual range -7.72% to 8.18%

The year before past crises: median 0.9%, from -14.9% before the Lira crisis (1976) to 25.6% before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 20% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (55.2%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1970–2020 · FRED QITR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Higher than 52% of years since 1978

↑Danger up from 48 a year ago

Median -1.67% · usual range -18.7% to 29.3%

The year before past crises: median 9.5%, from -22.3% before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016) to 29.6% before the Lira leaves the ERM (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1970–2020 · FRED QITR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Higher than 67% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 0.02% of GDP · usual range -2.81% of GDP to 2.73% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.42% of GDP, from -9.85% of GDP before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921) to 3.2% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 18 crises: Panic of 1907, World War I (1915), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1917 (-16.6% of GDP), 1918 (-14.7% of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2021–2025

Higher than 52% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 13 a year ago

Median 0.32% · usual range -7.78% to 15.3%

The year before past crises: median 1.18%, from -21.6% before the Banking crisis of 1935 to 129% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 18 crises: Building boom bust (1887), Panic of 1907, World War I (1915), Banking crisis of 1935, Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1920 (129%), 1937 (38.6%), 1942 (1,044%), 1944 (114%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CCUSMA02ITM618N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 58% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 67 a year ago

Median -1.53% · usual range -3.96% to 4.74%

The year before past crises: median -2.21%, from -6.4% before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016) to 3.25% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED RBITBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 94% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 37 a year ago

Median 3.32 months of imports · usual range 1.66 months of imports to 5.04 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 3.33 months of imports, from 1.54 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 4.54 months of imports before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 8 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1970–2025

Lower than 92% of years since 1970

↑Danger up from 24 a year ago

Median 0.44% of GDP · usual range 0.08% of GDP to 1.79% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 0.42% of GDP, from 0.19% of GDP before the Lira leaves the ERM (1992) to 2.97% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Higher than 72% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (72)

Median 2.54 of 4 · usual range 1.8 of 4 to 3.91 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.55 of 4, from 1.61 of 4 before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s to 3.95 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1935

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 15 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 69% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (67)

Median 2.16 of 4 · usual range 1.34 of 4 to 3.4 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.31 of 4, from 0.96 of 4 before the Panic of 1907 to 3.4 of 4 before the Oil shock (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 15 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 75% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (25)

Median 1.38 of 4 · usual range 0.3 of 4 to 3.01 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.38 of 4, from 0.3 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 3.32 of 4 before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 15 crises: Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 86% of years since 1861

→Danger about the same as a year ago (13)

Median 1.73 of 4 · usual range 0.58 of 4 to 2.44 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.38 of 4, from 0.45 of 4 before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s to 3.63 of 4 before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 18 crises: Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Banking crisis of the early 1990s

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1861–2025

Lower than 76% of years since 1861

→Danger about the same as a year ago (24)

Median 0.08 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.67 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1873 to 0.55 of 4 before the Lira crisis (1976)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1861–2025

Lower than 97% of years since 1867

→Danger about the same as a year ago (96)

Median +0.8 points · usual range -1.52 points to +4.3 points

The year before past crises: median +0.75 points, from -6.2 points before the Great Depression banking crisis (1930) to +3.6 points before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 18 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1924 (-18.1 points), 1925 (-23.3 points), 1926 (-24 points), 1927 (-19.3 points), 1946 (+31.3 points), 1947 (+45.8 points), 1948 (+47.4 points), 1949 (+45.4 points), 1950 (+42.9 points), 1951 (+20.1 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1862–2025

Higher than 69% of years since 1953

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 0.14 · usual range 0.02 to 0.38

The year before past crises: median 0.13, from 0.03 before the Lira crisis (1976) to 0.46 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 66% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUIITA 1953–2026-04

Lower than 90% of years since 1985

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median -12.7 · usual range -20.3 to -5.9

The year before past crises: median -13, from -16.9 before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011) to -6.79 before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Eurostat (ei_bsco_m) 1985–2026-08

Lower than 73% of years since 1919

↑Danger up from 21 a year ago

Median 11.7% · usual range 3.72% to 22.8%

The year before past crises: median 11.3%, from 0.91% before the Banking crisis of 1935 to 32.3% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 12 crises: Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1947 (70.3%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTITM156S 2021–2026-07 · FRED CP0000ITM086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 79% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (79)

Median 7.93% · usual range 5.06% to 14.8%

The year before past crises: median 7.91%, from 6.15% before the Lira crisis (1976) to 21.3% before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1850 (20.7%), 1880 (20.4%), 1900 (25.3%), 1910 (24.9%), 1920 (21.3%)

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Lower than 83% of years since 1861

Median 1.23 of 4 · usual range 0.48 of 4 to 2.18 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.27 of 4, from 0.41 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 2.57 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1935

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 18 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016)

Sources: V-Dem 1861–2025

Higher than 80% of years since 1870

Median 20.9% of GDP · usual range 12.7% of GDP to 39.4% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 24.3% of GDP, from 11.9% of GDP before the Banking crisis of 1873 to 39.6% of GDP before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 16 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF Public Finances in Modern History 2021–2024

Lower than 84% of years since 1861

Median 1 of 4 · usual range 0.13 of 4 to 1.91 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.02 of 4, from 0.08 of 4 before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s to 2.85 of 4 before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992)

Sources: V-Dem 1861–2025

Higher than 55% of years since 1861

Median 0.45 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 1.08 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.38 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Building boom bust (1887) to 2.07 of 4 before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 18 crises: Building boom bust (1887), Panic of 1907, World War I (1915), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1861–2025

Lower than 98% of years since 1861

→Danger about the same as a year ago (4)

Median 33.6 of 100 · usual range 18.6 of 100 to 44.8 of 100

The year before past crises: median 33.6 of 100, from 18.6 of 100 before the Oil shock (1974) to 45.1 of 100 before the Banking crisis of 1935

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 18 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 66% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1861–2025

Lower than 95% of years since 1866

→Danger about the same as a year ago (94)

Median +0.1 points · usual range -1.6 points to +2.7 points

The year before past crises: median +0.55 points, from -17.7 points before the Great Depression banking crisis (1930) to +3.5 points before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 17 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1923 (-16.7 points), 1924 (-23.5 points), 1925 (-35.4 points), 1926 (-40.3 points), 1927 (-40.4 points), 1928 (-23.7 points), 1929 (-17.7 points), 1944 (+21.2 points), 1945 (+24.7 points), 1946 (+46.6 points), 1947 (+50.4 points), 1948 (+52.8 points), 1949 (+31.9 points), 1950 (+27.5 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1861–2025

Lower than 95% of years since 1866

↑Danger up from 92 a year ago

Median +0.15 points · usual range -3.47 points to +5.74 points

The year before past crises: median +0.35 points, from -22.7 points before the Great Depression banking crisis (1930) to +11.8 points before the Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 17 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of 1873, Building boom bust (1887), Banca Romana scandal (1893), Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, World War I (1915), Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Banking crisis of 1935, World War II (1940), Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1923 (-24.1 points), 1924 (-42.1 points), 1925 (-63.7 points), 1926 (-64.1 points), 1927 (-45.5 points), 1928 (-28.9 points), 1929 (-22.7 points), 1946 (+56.4 points), 1947 (+72.1 points), 1948 (+71.6 points), 1949 (+58.5 points), 1950 (+58.5 points), 1951 (+16.9 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1861–2025

Lower than 75% of years since 1861

→Danger about the same as a year ago (25)

Median 1.54 of 4 · usual range 0.09 of 4 to 3.61 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.57 of 4, from 0.04 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 3.61 of 4 before the Great Depression banking crisis (1930)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 18 crises: Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1861–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil shock (1974) to 0 before the Oil shock (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Higher than 50% of years since 1989

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s to 0 before the Banking crisis of the early 1990s

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Lower than 59% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 97 a year ago

Median 115 · usual range 82.9 to 143

The year before past crises: median 114, from 60.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 126 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016)

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1997–2026-07

Lower than 74% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 35 a year ago

Median 0.19 % of articles · usual range 0.1 % of articles to 1.01 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.16 % of articles, from 0.07 % of articles before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011) to 1.52 % of articles before the World War II (1940)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 15 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 29% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (1.82 % of articles), 1916 (1.45 % of articles), 1917 (1.88 % of articles), 1918 (1.98 % of articles), 1919 (0.99 % of articles), 1935 (1.66 % of articles), 1936 (1.12 % of articles), 1938 (1.02 % of articles), 1939 (1.52 % of articles), 1940 (2.1 % of articles), 1941 (2.04 % of articles), 1942 (1.47 % of articles), 1943 (2.8 % of articles), 1944 (2.61 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 93% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 1 a year ago

Median 29.2% · usual range 21.5% to 36.8%

The year before past crises: median 28.5%, from 20.4% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 40.3% before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 76% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 23 per 100 workers · usual range 16 per 100 workers to 35.9 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 26.4 per 100 workers, from 18.4 per 100 workers before the Oil shock (1974) to 36.2 per 100 workers before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 8.18%, from -47.8% before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016) to 28.8% before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 4.11%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 12.5% before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 17.5, from 15.4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 22.6 before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median 2.4%, from -31.8% before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016) to 25.3% before the Sovereign debt crisis (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 5.22%, from -16.9% before the Bank bad-loan crisis (2016) to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 122, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 79.1, from 40.5 before the Great Depression banking crisis (1930) to 199 before the World War I (1915)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 15 crises: Panic of 1907, War panic of 1914, Banca Italiana di Sconto failure (1921), Great Depression banking crisis (1930), Banking crisis of 1935, Oil shock (1974), Lira crisis (1976), Banking crisis of the early 1990s, Lira leaves the ERM (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Sovereign debt crisis (2011), Bank bad-loan crisis (2016), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 28% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09