Built entirely by AI, analyses included. Not financial advice.
Country Outlook
Latest data Sep 2026 · computed 14 Oct 2026
History: Maddison Project GDP from 1950, World Bank from the 1960s-70s, IMF from 1980-2005
18%
estimated chance that an economic crisis starts within 2 years
18% of all its past years were followed by one
0 of the 1 past year that scored at least this high were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
60/100
Higher than 94% of years since 2009
Measures that published studies found often high before past crises: credit and debt growth, house and stock prices against their trend, the yield curve, interest-rate rises and external deficits. Low market volatility counts toward it.
Building up mostCredit boom
95
Private credit
88
Credit-to-GDP gap
83
66/100
Higher than 73% of years since 1970
How far today's readings are from Iraq's usual levels, across 43 indicators.
Private credit
88
External
69
Global environment
67
Public finances
43
Economy
41
Inflation and policy
4
The build-up measures, each against Iraq's own history. Each area starts with a fixed weight, adjusted by how it read before Iraq's past crises.
No crisis since the score's history begins can be tested yet.
Of the 1 year it was that high outside a crisis, 0 (0%) were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
Ranking quality 50/100, where 50 is what chance would give (61 with every area weighted the same).
For comparison, the stress score ranked them 60/100.
How much today's readings look like the year before each crisis started.
Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
23%
Iran-Iraq war (1980)
10%
Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990)
8%
US invasion and civil war (2003)
7%
War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
7%
2 of the 10 most similar past years were followed by a crisis within two years (Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)), against 8% of all years.
2018 → Oil collapse and COVID-19 began 2020
33%
2021
25%
1948
25%
2019 → Oil collapse and COVID-19 began 2020
23%
1947
21%
1946
21%
2017
20%
1942
20%
1951
19%
1950
18%
49 indicators measured, 33 not available for Iraq.
Change in real output from a year earlier.
-0.4%
2025
Lower than 74% of years since 1951
Danger up from 71 a year ago
Median 5.81% · usual range -3.93% to 19%
The year before past crises: median 7.63%, from -8.83% before the Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990) to 23% before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1991 (-62.7%)
Sources: Maddison Project 1870–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025
Share of the labour force out of work.
15.5%
2025
Higher than 93% of years since 1991
Danger up from 87 a year ago
Median 8.62% · usual range 8.12% to 15.4%
The year before past crises: median 9.22%, from 8.62% before the US invasion and civil war (2003) to 14.1% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025
One-year change in the unemployment rate.
+0.19 pp
2025
Higher than 60% of years since 1992
Danger up from 52 a year ago
Median +0.03 pp · usual range -0.24 pp to +1.07 pp
The year before past crises: median +0.64 pp, from +0.37 pp before the US invasion and civil war (2003) to +1.26 pp before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025
Gross investment relative to GDP. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
19.1% of GDP
2024
Lower than 59% of years since 1970
Danger up from 0 a year ago
Median 20.3% of GDP · usual range 10.9% of GDP to 48.6% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 20.3% of GDP, from -3.75% of GDP before the Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990) to 29.4% of GDP before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1970–2024
Household spending after inflation, against a year earlier.
13.7%
2024
Higher than 85% of years since 2008
Danger down from 21 a year ago
Median 2.57% · usual range -0.95% to 18.3%
The year before past crises: median 1.98%, from 1.56% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 2.4% before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2009 (28.2%), 2012 (25.2%)
Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2007–2024
Volume of exports of goods and services against a year earlier.
6.73%
2024
Higher than 62% of years since 2008
Danger up from 21 a year ago
Median 4.64% · usual range -6.3% to 18.8%
The year before past crises: median 2.11%, from -0.41% before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to 4.64% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 2008–2024
Consumer prices against a year earlier. Both high inflation and deflation count as the dangerous side.
0.3%
2025
Lower than 88% of years since 1961
Danger up from 30 a year ago
Median 4.98% · usual range 0.21% to 50%
The year before past crises: median 1.88%, from -0.2% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 19.3% before the US invasion and civil war (2003)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1991 (181%), 1992 (83.6%), 1993 (208%), 1994 (449%), 1995 (387%)
Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
Growth of money and bank deposits over a year.
-3.84%
2024
Lower than 96% of years since 1961
Danger up from 25 a year ago
Median 10.4% · usual range 2.69% to 34.5%
The year before past crises: median 12.2%, from 8.44% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 16% before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1961–2024
Five-year change in private credit relative to GDP.
+5.18 pp of GDP
2024
Higher than 95% of years since 1965
Danger up from 73 a year ago
Median +3.29 pp of GDP · usual range -3.38 pp of GDP to +4.69 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +2.82 pp of GDP, from +1.99 pp of GDP before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to +3.65 pp of GDP before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2024
Private credit relative to GDP against its long-run trend (one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter, as the BIS computes it).
+0.74 pp of GDP
2024
Higher than 83% of years since 1969
Danger up from 78 a year ago
Median -1.11 pp of GDP · usual range -3.48 pp of GDP to +0.86 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median -0.81 pp of GDP, from -1.48 pp of GDP before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to -0.15 pp of GDP before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2024
Loans to households and firms relative to GDP (bank loans in the history, total credit rescaled to it after).
14% of GDP
2024
Higher than 88% of years since 1960
Danger up from 75 a year ago
Median 9.55% of GDP · usual range 2.62% of GDP to 14% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 7.58% of GDP, from 6.34% of GDP before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to 8.81% of GDP before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2024
Banks’ own capital relative to their assets.
13.9 % of assets
2024
Higher than 65% of years since 2015
Danger down from 65 a year ago
Median 13.1 % of assets · usual range 10.7 % of assets to 14.8 % of assets
The year before past crises: median 13.5 % of assets, from 13.5 % of assets before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 13.5 % of assets before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 1 crises with data
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2015–2024
Non-performing loans as a share of all bank loans.
16.5 % of loans
2024
Higher than 55% of years since 2015
Danger up from 25 a year ago
Median 16.4 % of loans · usual range 12.3 % of loans to 19.1 % of loans
The year before past crises: median 16.2 % of loans, from 16.2 % of loans before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 16.2 % of loans before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 1 crises: Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2015–2024
Bank loans relative to bank deposits.
49.9%
2021
Higher than 55% of years since 1960
Median 45.9% · usual range 21.5% to 119%
The year before past crises: median 37.8%, from 31.9% before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to 43.7% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1960–2021
General government gross debt.
52.8% of GDP
2025
Lower than 52% of years since 2004
Danger up from 39 a year ago
Median 53.2% of GDP · usual range 35.2% of GDP to 141% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 36.9% of GDP, from 32% of GDP before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to 41.7% of GDP before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2004 (344% of GDP), 2005 (227% of GDP)
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2004–2025
Government revenue minus spending; negative is a deficit.
-6.2% of GDP
2025
Lower than 75% of years since 2004
Danger up from 57 a year ago
Median -1.3% of GDP · usual range -14.2% of GDP to 8.06% of GDP
The year before past crises: median -2.65% of GDP, from -6.1% of GDP before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to 0.8% of GDP before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2004–2025
Five-year change in public debt relative to GDP.
-19.7 pp of GDP
2025
Lower than 62% of years since 2009
Danger down from 68 a year ago
Median -5.6 pp of GDP · usual range -131 pp of GDP to +20.2 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median -14.1 pp of GDP, from -42.2 pp of GDP before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to +14.1 pp of GDP before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2004–2025
Government interest payments as a share of its spending (World Bank).
0.01 % of spending
2019
Lower than 92% of years since 2014
Median 1.96 % of spending · usual range 0.52 % of spending to 6.18 % of spending
The year before past crises: median 0.01 % of spending, from 0.01 % of spending before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 0.01 % of spending before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 1 crises: Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 2014–2019
Balance of trade, income and transfers with the rest of the world; negative is a deficit.
1.94% of GDP
2025
Lower than 74% of years since 2005
Danger up from 69 a year ago
Median 6.86% of GDP · usual range -1.66% of GDP to 17.5% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 6.81% of GDP, from 6.75% of GDP before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 6.86% of GDP before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 2005–2025
Change in the price of a US dollar in local currency: positive means the currency weakened.
0%
2025
Lower than 52% of years since 1961
Danger up from 10 a year ago
Median 0% · usual range -0.83% to 1.04%
The year before past crises: median 0%, from -0.06% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 0% before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1971 (261,873%), 1972 (129%), 1973 (-9.03%), 1974 (-2.49%), 1982 (1.09%), 1983 (4.13%), 1993 (0%), 1994 (0%), 1995 (0%), 1999 (0%), 2000 (0%), 2001 (0%), 2002 (0%), 2005 (1.28%), 2006 (-0.31%), 2007 (-14.5%), 2008 (-4.9%), 2009 (-1.93%), 2012 (-0.33%), 2013 (-0.01%), 2015 (0.11%), 2016 (1.26%), 2017 (0.17%), 2018 (-0.11%), 2019 (-0.06%), 2020 (0.85%), 2021 (21.6%), 2023 (-9.48%), 2024 (-0.95%)
Sources: World Bank (PA.NUS.FCRF) 1960–2025
Central bank reserves measured in months of imports.
11.6 months of imports
2025
Lower than 64% of years since 2005
Danger down from 79 a year ago
Median 12.1 months of imports · usual range 10.8 months of imports to 15.9 months of imports
The year before past crises: median 11.8 months of imports, from 10.9 months of imports before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 12.8 months of imports before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 2005–2025
Net inflows of foreign direct investment relative to GDP.
-2.99% of GDP
2025
Lower than 93% of years since 1970
Danger about the same as a year ago (92)
Median 0% of GDP · usual range -2.53% of GDP to 1.11% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 0% of GDP, from -1.32% of GDP before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 0% of GDP before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1991 (1.88% of GDP), 2003 (4.56% of GDP), 2008 (1.41% of GDP), 2009 (1.43% of GDP), 2012 (1.56% of GDP), 2014 (-4.46% of GDP), 2015 (-4.54% of GDP), 2016 (-3.75% of GDP)
Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025
How hostile supporters of opposing political camps are to each other (V-Dem experts; 0 = friendly, 4 = generally hostile).
2.47 of 4
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1920
Danger down from 51 a year ago
Median 3.48 of 4 · usual range 2.85 of 4 to 3.82 of 4
The year before past crises: median 3.82 of 4, from 3.23 of 4 before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 3.9 of 4 before the US invasion and civil war (2003)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
How frequent and large demonstrations, strikes and sit-ins were (V-Dem; 0 = virtually none, 4 = many large-scale).
2.42 of 4
2025
Higher than 76% of years since 1920
Danger down from 81 a year ago
Median 1.1 of 4 · usual range 0.63 of 4 to 3.36 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.7 of 4, from 1.1 of 4 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980) to 3.98 of 4 before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2010 (3.51 of 4), 2011 (3.85 of 4), 2012 (3.67 of 4), 2014 (3.88 of 4), 2017 (3.76 of 4), 2018 (3.87 of 4), 2019 (3.98 of 4), 2020 (3.99 of 4), 2021 (3.85 of 4)
Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
How often non-state actors used violence for political ends (V-Dem; 0 = not at all, 4 = often).
2.66 of 4
2025
Lower than 80% of years since 1920
Danger down from 82 a year ago
Median 3.17 of 4 · usual range 2.24 of 4 to 3.72 of 4
The year before past crises: median 3.38 of 4, from 3.16 of 4 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980) to 3.86 of 4 before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
Strength of movements that want to change the political system fundamentally (V-Dem; 0 = practically none, 4 = very strong).
2.16 of 4
2025
Higher than 64% of years since 1920
Danger about the same as a year ago (64)
Median 2.03 of 4 · usual range 1.1 of 4 to 2.92 of 4
The year before past crises: median 1.21 of 4, from 0.99 of 4 before the US invasion and civil war (2003) to 2.7 of 4 before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them separatist or autonomist (V-Dem).
0.86 of 4
2025
Higher than 85% of years since 1920
Danger up from 71 a year ago
Median 0.35 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.99 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.4 of 4, from 0.33 of 4 before the US invasion and civil war (2003) to 0.9 of 4 before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem liberal democracy index (0-100); negative means it fell.
+0.8 points
2025
Higher than 74% of years since 1925
Danger down from 87 a year ago
Median 0 points · usual range -2 points to +3.8 points
The year before past crises: median -0.4 points, from -2.3 points before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to +2.5 points before the US invasion and civil war (2003)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: US invasion and civil war (2003)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1959 (-9 points), 1960 (-10.6 points), 1961 (-10.8 points), 1962 (-10.9 points), 1963 (-7.4 points), 2006 (+16.4 points), 2007 (+16.6 points), 2008 (+14.3 points), 2009 (+15 points), 2010 (+14.4 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
How often "uncertainty" appears in country reports (World Uncertainty Index; Economic Policy Uncertainty for the euro area).
0.62
Q2 2026
Higher than 100% of years since 1954
Danger up from 7 a year ago
Median 0.09 · usual range 0 to 0.22
The year before past crises: median 0.17, from 0.08 before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 0.21 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED WUIIRQ 1954–2026-04
Unemployment rate plus inflation.
15.8%
2025
Lower than 59% of years since 1991
Danger down from 47 a year ago
Median 19.6% · usual range 11.2% to 151%
The year before past crises: median 13.9%, from 11.1% before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to 27.9% before the US invasion and civil war (2003)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1991 (190%), 1993 (216%), 1994 (457%), 1995 (396%)
Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
Share of national income before taxes going to the richest 1% (World Inequality Database, with its estimates for gaps).
44.6%
2024
Higher than 99% of years since 1980
Danger up from 97 a year ago
Median 24.4% · usual range 23.3% to 31.6%
The year before past crises: median 24.4%, from 15.8% before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to 30% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2012 (21.1%), 2013 (15.8%), 2014 (18%), 2015 (20.3%), 2016 (22.6%)
Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1980–2024
How much of the economy the state owns or directly controls (V-Dem; 0 = very little, 4 = virtually all).
2.17 of 4
2025
Higher than 59% of years since 1920
Median 2.11 of 4 · usual range 1.6 of 4 to 2.6 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.6 of 4, from 2.11 of 4 before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to 2.6 of 4 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them leftist, socialist or communist (V-Dem).
0.86 of 4
2025
Higher than 98% of years since 1920
Median 0.34 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.53 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980) to 0.53 of 4 before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them rightist or "party of order" (V-Dem).
0.43 of 4
2025
Higher than 94% of years since 1920
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.37 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980) to 0.45 of 4 before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
V-Dem political corruption index (0 = none, 100 = pervasive).
89.2 of 100
2025
Higher than 100% of years since 1920
Danger up from 78 a year ago
Median 61.7 of 100 · usual range 56.9 of 100 to 88.8 of 100
The year before past crises: median 87 of 100, from 61.3 of 100 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980) to 87.7 of 100 before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem rule-of-law index (0-100).
+3.3 points
2025
Higher than 92% of years since 1925
Danger about the same as a year ago (7)
Median -1.1 points · usual range -6.4 points to +0.8 points
The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -5.5 points before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to +0.8 points before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem freedom of expression and alternative information index (0-100).
+3.9 points
2025
Higher than 91% of years since 1925
Danger down from 85 a year ago
Median -0.1 points · usual range -8.5 points to +3.2 points
The year before past crises: median -1.7 points, from -4 points before the Iran-Iraq war (1980) to +0.5 points before the Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1963 (-22.5 points), 2003 (+22.4 points), 2004 (+57.9 points), 2005 (+58.7 points), 2006 (+58.7 points), 2007 (+58.7 points), 2008 (+37.4 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
How much the government represses civil society organizations (V-Dem; 0 = none, 4 = severely).
1.07 of 4
2025
Lower than 83% of years since 1920
Danger about the same as a year ago (17)
Median 1.68 of 4 · usual range 0.91 of 4 to 3.81 of 4
The year before past crises: median 3.27 of 4, from 0.86 of 4 before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 3.81 of 4 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1920–2025
Coup attempts in the year (Powell & Thyne, via V-Dem).
0
2024
Lower than 52% of years since 1950
Danger about the same as a year ago (48)
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980) to 0 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024
Deaths in armed conflicts the country is involved in (Uppsala Conflict Data Program, via Our World in Data).
48
2026
Lower than 99% of years since 1989
Danger down from 15 a year ago
Median 1,219 · usual range 110 to 11,341
The year before past crises: median 567, from 50 before the Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990) to 4,014 before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1991 (24,498)
Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026
Unemployment of 15-24-year-olds (ILO estimates via the World Bank).
32%
2025
Higher than 93% of years since 1991
Danger up from 87 a year ago
Median 16.9% · usual range 15.3% to 31.8%
The year before past crises: median 17.9%, from 16.6% before the US invasion and civil war (2003) to 29.8% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025
People aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age.
5.7 per 100 workers
2025
Lower than 72% of years since 1960
Median 6.39 per 100 workers · usual range 5.4 per 100 workers to 8.98 per 100 workers
The year before past crises: median 5.74 per 100 workers, from 5.34 per 100 workers before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to 9.13 per 100 workers before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025
Crude oil price (WTI) against a year earlier. Both sharp rises and falls count as the dangerous side.
52.1%
Sep 2026
Higher than 95% of years since 1947
Danger up from 65 a year ago
Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%
The year before past crises: median 3.96%, from -12.3% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 50.9% before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1974 (168%)
Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09
The US dollar against major currencies, against a year earlier.
-0.68%
Sep 2026
Lower than 77% of years since 1974
Danger about the same as a year ago (23)
Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%
The year before past crises: median 1.13%, from 0.59% before the US invasion and civil war (2003) to 9.82% before the Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09
Expected stock market volatility implied by S&P 500 option prices (VIX).
15.8
Sep 2026
Lower than 67% of years since 1990
Danger about the same as a year ago (33)
Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6
The year before past crises: median 15.4, from 14.2 before the War with ISIS and oil crash (2014) to 27.2 before the US invasion and civil war (2003)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09
IMF index of all commodity prices against a year earlier.
16.6%
Jul 2026
Higher than 70% of years since 1993
Danger up from 9 a year ago
Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%
The year before past crises: median -3.01%, from -8.38% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to -0.78% before the US invasion and civil war (2003)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014)
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07
IMF food price index against a year earlier.
4.78%
Jul 2026
Higher than 64% of years since 1993
Danger up from 27 a year ago
Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%
The year before past crises: median -0.34%, from -3.06% before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 5.21% before the US invasion and civil war (2003)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index (GDP-weighted, Baker, Bloom & Davis).
242
Jul 2026
Higher than 90% of years since 1997
Danger down from 100 a year ago
Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239
The year before past crises: median 129, from 102 before the US invasion and civil war (2003) to 235 before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07
News coverage of wars, terrorism and international tensions since 1900 (Caldara & Iacoviello; 100 = the 1985-2019 average).
137
Sep 2026
Higher than 88% of years since 1900
Danger up from 80 a year ago
Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161
The year before past crises: median 81.3, from 69.9 before the Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020) to 111 before the US invasion and civil war (2003)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Invasion of Kuwait and sanctions (1990), US invasion and civil war (2003), War with ISIS and oil crash (2014), Oil collapse and COVID-19 (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)
Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09
Oil revenue collapsed; salaries went unpaid and the dinar was devalued.
ISIS took a third of the country as oil prices collapsed.
Invasion, occupation and sectarian war.
The Gulf War and UN sanctions; hyperinflation and collapse of living standards.
Eight years of war devastated oil output and finances.