Built entirely by AI, analyses included. Not financial advice.
Country Outlook
Latest data Sep 2026 · computed 14 Oct 2026
History: Maddison Project GDP from 1950, World Bank from the 1960s-70s, IMF from 1980-2005
Data, scores and the AI report are updated once a month.
21%
estimated chance that an economic crisis starts within 2 years
21% of all its past years were followed by one
5 of the 19 past years that scored at least this high were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
57/100
Higher than 44% of years since 1987
Measures that published studies found often high before past crises: credit and debt growth, house and stock prices against their trend, the yield curve, interest-rate rises and external deficits. Low market volatility counts toward it.
Building up mostInvestment
84
Stock market value
82
Public debt
78
62/100
Higher than 82% of years since 1970
How far today's readings are from Iran's usual levels, across 36 indicators.
Economy
84
Stock market
82
Global environment
67
Public finances
44
External
27
The build-up measures, each against Iran's own history. Each area starts with a fixed weight, adjusted by how it read before Iran's past crises.
Before 1 of the 2 economic crises that can be tested, the score was in the top quarter of the country's history (75th percentile or higher) in the 2 years before.
Of the 5 years it was that high outside a crisis, 1 (20%) were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
Ranking quality 55/100, where 50 is what chance would give (67 with every area weighted the same).
For comparison, the stress score ranked them 32/100.
| Crisis | Percentile before | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed US sanctions (2018) | 92 | High 1 year before |
| Sanctions and rial collapse (2012) | 34 | Not high before |
How much today's readings look like the year before each crisis started.
War with Israel (2025)
51%
Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
24%
Iran-Iraq war (1980)
18%
Renewed US sanctions (2018)
16%
Oil price collapse (1986)
15%
0 of the 10 most similar past years were followed by a crisis within two years, against 8% of all years.
1851
65%
1852
65%
1853
65%
1854
65%
1850
58%
1855
56%
1856
56%
1857
56%
1858
56%
1859
56%
48 indicators measured, 34 not available for Iran.
Change in real output from a year earlier.
-0.9%
2025
Lower than 82% of years since 1951
Danger up from 62 a year ago
Median 5.53% · usual range -2.34% to 13%
The year before past crises: median 2.64%, from -8.64% before the Iran-Iraq war (1980) to 12.9% before the Foreign debt crisis (1993)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: Maddison Project 1870–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025
Share of the labour force out of work.
7.5%
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1990
Danger down from 4 a year ago
Median 11.2% · usual range 9.05% to 13.9%
The year before past crises: median 11.1%, from 7.6% before the War with Israel (2025) to 12.3% before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 100% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1990–2025
One-year change in the unemployment rate.
-0.1 pp
2025
Higher than 51% of years since 1991
Danger up from 33 a year ago
Median -0.1 pp · usual range -1.32 pp to +1.56 pp
The year before past crises: median -0.4 pp, from -1.2 pp before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012) to 0 pp before the Foreign debt crisis (1993)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1990–2025
Gross investment relative to GDP. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
41.8% of GDP
2025
Higher than 84% of years since 1960
Danger down from 83 a year ago
Median 36.1% of GDP · usual range 24.4% of GDP to 43% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 36% of GDP, from 24.3% of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 48.4% of GDP before the Islamic Revolution (1978)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1960–2025
Household spending after inflation, against a year earlier.
-0.4%
2025
Lower than 79% of years since 1961
Danger up from 49 a year ago
Median 3.4% · usual range -4.08% to 12.1%
The year before past crises: median 3.53%, from 1.61% before the Renewed US sanctions (2018) to 7.1% before the Islamic Revolution (1978)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 1960–2025
Volume of exports of goods and services against a year earlier.
-0.63%
2025
Lower than 70% of years since 1961
Danger up from 47 a year ago
Median 3.96% · usual range -12.2% to 17%
The year before past crises: median -0.53%, from -22.1% before the Iran-Iraq war (1980) to 6% before the War with Israel (2025)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 7 crises: Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1980 (-66.1%), 1982 (93.3%)
Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1961–2025
Consumer prices against a year earlier. Both high inflation and deflation count as the dangerous side.
42.2%
2025
Higher than 93% of years since 1961
Danger up from 77 a year ago
Median 16.5% · usual range 2.56% to 34.9%
The year before past crises: median 25.8%, from 4.39% before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 32.5% before the War with Israel (2025)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
Growth of money and bank deposits over a year.
28%
2016
Higher than 63% of years since 1961
Median 25.6% · usual range 16.1% to 35.2%
The year before past crises: median 25.2%, from 20.2% before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012) to 35.5% before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Foreign debt crisis (1993)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 30% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1961–2016
Five-year change in private credit relative to GDP.
+8.58 pp of GDP
2016
Higher than 73% of years since 1965
Median +2.76 pp of GDP · usual range -4.21 pp of GDP to +14.2 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +1.65 pp of GDP, from -10.4 pp of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986) to +10.4 pp of GDP before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2016
Private credit relative to GDP against its long-run trend (one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter, as the BIS computes it).
+1.51 pp of GDP
2016
Higher than 54% of years since 1969
Median +0.82 pp of GDP · usual range -2.82 pp of GDP to +7.86 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +0.53 pp of GDP, from -0.16 pp of GDP before the Islamic Revolution (1978) to +1.96 pp of GDP before the Foreign debt crisis (1993)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 10% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2016
Loans to households and firms relative to GDP (bank loans in the history, total credit rescaled to it after).
57.8% of GDP
2016
Higher than 99% of years since 1960
Median 21.4% of GDP · usual range 15.7% of GDP to 49.1% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 23.2% of GDP, from 19.3% of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 49.3% of GDP before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2016
Bank loans relative to bank deposits.
75.5%
2016
Lower than 62% of years since 1961
Median 83.8% · usual range 50.9% to 103%
The year before past crises: median 77.7%, from 61.3% before the Foreign debt crisis (1993) to 111% before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Iran-Iraq war (1980), Foreign debt crisis (1993)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1961–2016
General government gross debt.
35.6% of GDP
2025
Higher than 78% of years since 1996
Danger up from 68 a year ago
Median 22.8% of GDP · usual range 10.9% of GDP to 43.3% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 31.2% of GDP, from 10.6% of GDP before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012) to 43.2% of GDP before the Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), War with Israel (2025)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1996–2025
Government revenue minus spending; negative is a deficit.
-5.3% of GDP
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1990
Danger up from 63 a year ago
Median -2.4% of GDP · usual range -4.9% of GDP to -0.6% of GDP
The year before past crises: median -1.2% of GDP, from -2.7% of GDP before the War with Israel (2025) to -0.7% of GDP before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 14% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1990–2025
Five-year change in public debt relative to GDP.
-11.5 pp of GDP
2025
Lower than 90% of years since 2001
Danger up from 2 a year ago
Median -5.5 pp of GDP · usual range -11.4 pp of GDP to +31.5 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median -4.6 pp of GDP, from -13.4 pp of GDP before the War with Israel (2025) to +31.5 pp of GDP before the Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: War with Israel (2025)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1996–2025
Government interest payments as a share of its spending (World Bank).
0.73 % of spending
2009
Higher than 57% of years since 1972
Median 0.63 % of spending · usual range 0.03 % of spending to 2.51 % of spending
The year before past crises: median 1.29 % of spending, from 0.03 % of spending before the Foreign debt crisis (1993) to 2.41 % of spending before the Islamic Revolution (1978)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1972 (5.6 % of spending), 1973 (5.6 % of spending)
Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1972–2009
Value of listed companies relative to GDP (World Bank).
51.2% of GDP
2025
Higher than 82% of years since 1975
Danger up from 77 a year ago
Median 17% of GDP · usual range 4.66% of GDP to 215% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 18.9% of GDP, from 4.73% of GDP before the Islamic Revolution (1978) to 36.1% of GDP before the War with Israel (2025)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2019 (112% of GDP), 2020 (548% of GDP), 2021 (370% of GDP), 2022 (382% of GDP), 2023 (450% of GDP)
Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1975–2025
Balance of trade, income and transfers with the rest of the world; negative is a deficit.
3.3% of GDP
2025
Higher than 73% of years since 1980
Danger down from 30 a year ago
Median 2% of GDP · usual range -2.6% of GDP to 5.35% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 2.9% of GDP, from -11.9% of GDP before the Foreign debt crisis (1993) to 8.1% of GDP before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 1980–2025
Central bank reserves measured in months of imports.
5.82 months of imports
1982
Lower than 64% of years since 1976
Median 5.97 months of imports · usual range 4.21 months of imports to 11.1 months of imports
The year before past crises: median 9.87 months of imports, from 5.97 months of imports before the Islamic Revolution (1978) to 13.8 months of imports before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1976–1982
Net inflows of foreign direct investment relative to GDP.
0.45% of GDP
2025
Higher than 56% of years since 1970
Danger down from 58 a year ago
Median 0.35% of GDP · usual range -0.04% of GDP to 1.07% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 0.3% of GDP, from -0.02% of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 0.98% of GDP before the Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025
How hostile supporters of opposing political camps are to each other (V-Dem experts; 0 = friendly, 4 = generally hostile).
3.17 of 4
2025
Higher than 54% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (54)
Median 3.09 of 4 · usual range 2.37 of 4 to 3.69 of 4
The year before past crises: median 3.29 of 4, from 2.17 of 4 before the Oil nationalization and embargo (1951) to 3.69 of 4 before the Islamic Revolution (1978)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Oil nationalization and embargo (1951), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How frequent and large demonstrations, strikes and sit-ins were (V-Dem; 0 = virtually none, 4 = many large-scale).
3.18 of 4
2025
Higher than 93% of years since 1900
Danger up from 82 a year ago
Median 1.52 of 4 · usual range 0.62 of 4 to 2.92 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.3 of 4, from 1.52 of 4 before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 3.97 of 4 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Oil nationalization and embargo (1951), Islamic Revolution (1978), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 74% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How often non-state actors used violence for political ends (V-Dem; 0 = not at all, 4 = often).
1.81 of 4
2025
Lower than 73% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (28)
Median 2.52 of 4 · usual range 0.99 of 4 to 3.38 of 4
The year before past crises: median 1.93 of 4, from 0.99 of 4 before the Foreign debt crisis (1993) to 3.06 of 4 before the Oil nationalization and embargo (1951)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 8 crises: Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 32% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Strength of movements that want to change the political system fundamentally (V-Dem; 0 = practically none, 4 = very strong).
0.79 of 4
2025
Lower than 93% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (7)
Median 1.66 of 4 · usual range 0.9 of 4 to 3.21 of 4
The year before past crises: median 1.44 of 4, from 0.57 of 4 before the Renewed US sanctions (2018) to 3.96 of 4 before the Islamic Revolution (1978)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 8 crises: Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 13% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them separatist or autonomist (V-Dem).
0.47 of 4
2025
Lower than 65% of years since 1850
Danger up from 22 a year ago
Median 0.8 of 4 · usual range 0.36 of 4 to 1.53 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.61 of 4, from 0.25 of 4 before the Renewed US sanctions (2018) to 0.9 of 4 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 8 crises: Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 21% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem liberal democracy index (0-100); negative means it fell.
-1.6 points
2025
Lower than 81% of years since 1905
Danger down from 93 a year ago
Median +0.3 points · usual range -2.8 points to +3.4 points
The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -3.8 points before the War with Israel (2025) to +1.5 points before the Oil nationalization and embargo (1951)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Oil nationalization and embargo (1951), Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How often "uncertainty" appears in country reports (World Uncertainty Index; Economic Policy Uncertainty for the euro area).
0.54
Q2 2026
Higher than 99% of years since 1954
Danger about the same as a year ago (100)
Median 0.07 · usual range 0 to 0.31
The year before past crises: median 0.29, from 0 before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012) to 0.39 before the Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED WUIIRN 1954–2026-04
Unemployment rate plus inflation.
49.7%
2025
Higher than 85% of years since 1990
Danger up from 74 a year ago
Median 30.8% · usual range 22.7% to 51.6%
The year before past crises: median 37.2%, from 20.1% before the Renewed US sanctions (2018) to 40.1% before the War with Israel (2025)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 18% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1990–2025 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025
Share of national income before taxes going to the richest 1% (World Inequality Database, with its estimates for gaps).
16.6%
2024
Lower than 78% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (22)
Median 20.2% · usual range 15.3% to 24.5%
The year before past crises: median 18.4%, from 15% before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012) to 23.1% before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 24% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024
How much of the economy the state owns or directly controls (V-Dem; 0 = very little, 4 = virtually all).
2.52 of 4
2025
Higher than 97% of years since 1850
Median 1.83 of 4 · usual range 1.33 of 4 to 2.49 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.36 of 4, from 1.83 of 4 before the Oil nationalization and embargo (1951) to 2.52 of 4 before the War with Israel (2025)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Oil nationalization and embargo (1951), Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Size of the state: government spending relative to GDP. The long-run series cover central government only, so the level is lower than the familiar general-government figure.
14.2% of GDP
2024
Lower than 74% of years since 1962
Median 16% of GDP · usual range 12.9% of GDP to 23.7% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 14.6% of GDP, from 14.2% of GDP before the War with Israel (2025) to 21.6% of GDP before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: War with Israel (2025)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1962–2024
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them leftist, socialist or communist (V-Dem).
0.31 of 4
2025
Lower than 67% of years since 1850
Median 0.57 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 1.83 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.61 of 4, from 0.25 of 4 before the Renewed US sanctions (2018) to 2.38 of 4 before the Islamic Revolution (1978)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 8 crises: Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them rightist or "party of order" (V-Dem).
0.47 of 4
2025
Higher than 71% of years since 1850
Median 0.13 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.8 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.51 of 4, from 0.06 of 4 before the Renewed US sanctions (2018) to 0.9 of 4 before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Oil price collapse (1986), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
V-Dem political corruption index (0 = none, 100 = pervasive).
76.8 of 100
2025
Higher than 97% of years since 1850
Danger down from 99 a year ago
Median 67.3 of 100 · usual range 39.9 of 100 to 74.4 of 100
The year before past crises: median 61.9 of 100, from 34 of 100 before the Oil nationalization and embargo (1951) to 78.3 of 100 before the War with Israel (2025)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Oil nationalization and embargo (1951), Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 84% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem rule-of-law index (0-100).
-2.7 points
2025
Lower than 86% of years since 1855
Danger about the same as a year ago (88)
Median 0 points · usual range -5.7 points to +5.9 points
The year before past crises: median -0.35 points, from -7.9 points before the Iran-Iraq war (1980) to +6.1 points before the Oil nationalization and embargo (1951)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Oil nationalization and embargo (1951), Islamic Revolution (1978), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1980 (-19.2 points), 1981 (-21.3 points), 1982 (-21.5 points), 1983 (-23.8 points), 1984 (-13.2 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem freedom of expression and alternative information index (0-100).
-1.3 points
2025
Lower than 77% of years since 1855
Danger up from 16 a year ago
Median 0 points · usual range -10.5 points to +7.1 points
The year before past crises: median +4.5 points, from -9.8 points before the Oil price collapse (1986) to +13.9 points before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Oil nationalization and embargo (1951), Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1906 (+17.4 points), 1907 (+24.3 points), 1908 (+24.3 points), 1909 (+25.7 points), 1910 (+25.6 points), 1911 (+8.2 points), 1921 (-17 points), 1922 (-18 points), 1923 (-21.6 points), 1924 (-21.6 points), 1925 (-28.3 points), 1926 (-10.8 points), 1927 (-10.5 points), 1942 (+34.8 points), 1943 (+34.8 points), 1944 (+34.8 points), 1945 (+34.8 points), 1946 (+32.4 points), 1953 (-24 points), 1954 (-31.3 points), 1955 (-37.6 points), 1956 (-39.2 points), 1957 (-39.2 points), 1958 (-7.3 points), 1979 (+13.9 points), 1980 (+7.1 points), 1984 (-16.6 points), 1985 (-9.8 points), 1993 (+6.9 points), 1997 (+21.4 points), 1998 (+23.2 points), 1999 (+24.5 points), 2000 (+22.9 points), 2001 (+19.9 points), 2005 (-13.5 points), 2006 (-12.6 points), 2007 (-12.6 points), 2008 (-12.6 points), 2009 (-13.3 points), 2022 (-8.9 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
How much the government represses civil society organizations (V-Dem; 0 = none, 4 = severely).
3.35 of 4
2025
Higher than 80% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (79)
Median 2.45 of 4 · usual range 1.67 of 4 to 3.43 of 4
The year before past crises: median 3.13 of 4, from 0.99 of 4 before the Oil nationalization and embargo (1951) to 3.61 of 4 before the Islamic Revolution (1978)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Oil nationalization and embargo (1951), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Coup attempts in the year (Powell & Thyne, via V-Dem).
0
2024
Lower than 51% of years since 1950
Danger about the same as a year ago (49)
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil nationalization and embargo (1951) to 0 before the Oil nationalization and embargo (1951)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Oil nationalization and embargo (1951), Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024
Deaths in armed conflicts the country is involved in (Uppsala Conflict Data Program, via Our World in Data).
3,559
2026
Higher than 99% of years since 1989
Danger up from 96 a year ago
Median 43 · usual range 0 to 217
The year before past crises: median 86.5, from 27 before the Renewed US sanctions (2018) to 218 before the War with Israel (2025)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026
Unemployment of 15-24-year-olds (ILO estimates via the World Bank).
21.9%
2025
Lower than 73% of years since 1991
Danger up from 19 a year ago
Median 23.1% · usual range 20.5% to 27.3%
The year before past crises: median 24.4%, from 21.3% before the War with Israel (2025) to 28.2% before the Renewed US sanctions (2018)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 100% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025
People aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age.
12.4 per 100 workers
2025
Higher than 99% of years since 1960
Median 6.79 per 100 workers · usual range 5.84 per 100 workers to 9.95 per 100 workers
The year before past crises: median 6.33 per 100 workers, from 5.61 per 100 workers before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 11.9 per 100 workers before the War with Israel (2025)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025
Crude oil price (WTI) against a year earlier. Both sharp rises and falls count as the dangerous side.
52.1%
Sep 2026
Higher than 95% of years since 1947
Danger up from 65 a year ago
Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%
The year before past crises: median 6.53%, from -4.45% before the Oil price collapse (1986) to 50.9% before the Iran-Iraq war (1980)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Oil nationalization and embargo (1951), Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1974 (168%)
Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09
The US dollar against major currencies, against a year earlier.
-0.68%
Sep 2026
Lower than 77% of years since 1974
Danger about the same as a year ago (23)
Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%
The year before past crises: median 2.21%, from -4.58% before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012) to 11.7% before the Oil price collapse (1986)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 7 crises: Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09
Expected stock market volatility implied by S&P 500 option prices (VIX).
15.8
Sep 2026
Lower than 67% of years since 1990
Danger about the same as a year ago (33)
Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6
The year before past crises: median 15.5, from 11.1 before the Renewed US sanctions (2018) to 24 before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Foreign debt crisis (1993), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09
IMF index of all commodity prices against a year earlier.
16.6%
Jul 2026
Higher than 70% of years since 1993
Danger up from 9 a year ago
Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%
The year before past crises: median 13.3%, from -0.5% before the War with Israel (2025) to 24.9% before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07
IMF food price index against a year earlier.
4.78%
Jul 2026
Higher than 64% of years since 1993
Danger up from 27 a year ago
Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%
The year before past crises: median 3.76%, from -3.12% before the War with Israel (2025) to 18.6% before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index (GDP-weighted, Baker, Bloom & Davis).
242
Jul 2026
Higher than 90% of years since 1997
Danger down from 100 a year ago
Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239
The year before past crises: median 171, from 147 before the Sanctions and rial collapse (2012) to 210 before the War with Israel (2025)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07
News coverage of wars, terrorism and international tensions since 1900 (Caldara & Iacoviello; 100 = the 1985-2019 average).
137
Sep 2026
Higher than 88% of years since 1900
Danger up from 80 a year ago
Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161
The year before past crises: median 86.3, from 68.5 before the Islamic Revolution (1978) to 143 before the Oil nationalization and embargo (1951)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Islamic Revolution (1978), Iran-Iraq war (1980), Oil price collapse (1986), Foreign debt crisis (1993), Sanctions and rial collapse (2012), Renewed US sanctions (2018), War with Israel (2025)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)
Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09
Twelve days of war in June 2025 and the reimposition of UN sanctions.
The US left the nuclear deal; oil exports and the rial collapsed and inflation passed 40%.
Oil and banking sanctions; the rial lost about two thirds.
Iran fell into arrears on short-term foreign debt and had to reschedule.
Oil halved in the middle of the war.
Eight years of war.
Strikes and revolution cut oil output and capital fled.
Iran nationalized its oil; a British-led embargo cut exports until the 1953 coup.
