India

Higher than 90% of years since 1851

↓Danger down from 19 a year ago

Median 3.45% · usual range -2.35% to 7.79%

The year before past crises: median 4.93%, from -5.24% before the Partition (1947) to 8.19% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 14 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Maddison Project 1850–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025

Lower than 93% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 4 a year ago

Median 7.61% · usual range 5.45% to 7.66%

The year before past crises: median 7.63%, from 6.51% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 7.65% before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data

Off the chart: 2023 (4.17%), 2024 (4.17%)

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 90% of years since 1992

↑Danger up from 49 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -0.48 pp to +0.04 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.01 pp, from -1.14 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +0.04 pp before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Off the chart: 2019 (-1.14 pp), 2020 (+1.35 pp), 2021 (-1.48 pp), 2022 (-1.56 pp), 2023 (-0.65 pp)

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 86% of years since 1960

↑Danger up from 62 a year ago

Median 26.2% of GDP · usual range 18.5% of GDP to 37.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 30.1% of GDP, from 19.5% of GDP before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 42% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 9 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 79% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1960–2025

Higher than 89% of years since 1961

↓Danger down from 39 a year ago

Median 5% · usual range 1.3% to 7.73%

The year before past crises: median 5.97%, from 0.67% before the Oil shock (1973) to 7.93% before the Demonetization (2016)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 9 crises: Demonetization (2016)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 1960–2025

Lower than 55% of years since 1961

→Danger about the same as a year ago (53)

Median 7.3% · usual range -3.49% to 20.8%

The year before past crises: median 5.87%, from -6.51% before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 11.1% before the Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Taper tantrum (2013)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1961–2025

Lower than 95% of years since 1961

↑Danger up from 34 a year ago

Median 6.62% · usual range 3.14% to 12.6%

The year before past crises: median 6.37%, from 2.52% before the Drought and second oil shock (1979) to 13.4% before the War, drought and devaluation (1965)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 24% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Lower than 75% of years since 1969

↑Danger up from 7 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -0.73 pp to +0.95 pp

The year before past crises: median 0 pp, from -0.7 pp before the Demonetization (2016) to +2.71 pp before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 8 crises: Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 75% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1971 (+1 pp), 1974 (+1.33 pp), 1975 (+1 pp), 1992 (+1.25 pp), 1997 (-1.58 pp), 1999 (-1.37 pp), 2012 (+2.71 pp), 2016 (-1.14 pp), 2020 (-1.42 pp), 2022 (+0.91 pp), 2023 (+1.56 pp)

Sources: FRED IRSTCI01INM156N 1968–2026-07

Lower than 90% of years since 1968

→Danger about the same as a year ago (79)

Median 8.08% · usual range 5.74% to 10.5%

The year before past crises: median 7.37%, from 5.99% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 10% before the Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED IRSTCI01INM156N 1968–2026-07

Higher than 78% of years since 1968

↓Danger down from 69 a year ago

Median +1.75 pp · usual range -3.27 pp to +3.66 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.65 pp, from -0.77 pp before the Taper tantrum (2013) to +6.48 pp before the Drought and second oil shock (1979)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1973), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (-20.6 pp)

Sources: FRED IRSTCI01INM156N 1968–2026-07 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Lower than 73% of years since 1961

Median 15.9% · usual range 10.4% to 19.5%

The year before past crises: median 11.1%, from 9.41% before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 22.3% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 9 crises: Oil shock (1973), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1961–2021

Lower than 79% of years since 1965

↓Danger down from 30 a year ago

Median +2.87 pp of GDP · usual range -2.41 pp of GDP to +10.5 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +2.56 pp of GDP, from -13.7 pp of GDP before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018) to +13.3 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 8 crises: Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2025-10

Higher than 100% of years since 2008

↑Danger up from 89 a year ago

Median 38.3% of GDP · usual range 34.9% of GDP to 44.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 35.8% of GDP, from 34.7% of GDP before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018) to 37.3% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED QINHAM770A 2008–2025-10

Higher than 71% of years since 1969

↑Danger up from 40 a year ago

Median +0.34 pp of GDP · usual range -5.16 pp of GDP to +4.09 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.79 pp of GDP, from -12.5 pp of GDP before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018) to +7.01 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1973), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2025

Higher than 88% of years since 1960

↑Danger up from 83 a year ago

Median 24.6% of GDP · usual range 9.39% of GDP to 48.8% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 38.2% of GDP, from 8.54% of GDP before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 51.9% of GDP before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 9 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 85% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2025-10

Lower than 78% of years since 2008

↑Danger up from 11 a year ago

Median 65.1% of GDP · usual range 51.7% of GDP to 75% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 67.2% of GDP, from 56.7% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 76.8% of GDP before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: FRED QINNAM770A 2008–2025-10

Higher than 97% of years since 2005

↓Danger down from 9 a year ago

Median 6.89 % of assets · usual range 5.99 % of assets to 8.2 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 6.86 % of assets, from 6.13 % of assets before the Taper tantrum (2013) to 8.03 % of assets before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2005–2025

Lower than 97% of years since 2005

↓Danger down from 15 a year ago

Median 4.4 % of loans · usual range 2.48 % of loans to 9.33 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 7.56 % of loans, from 3.37 % of loans before the Taper tantrum (2013) to 9.98 % of loans before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2005–2025

Lower than 73% of years since 1960

Median 77.3% · usual range 63.2% to 88.3%

The year before past crises: median 77.4%, from 74.5% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 86.8% before the War, drought and devaluation (1965)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 9 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 80% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1960–2021

Higher than 56% of years since 1999

↑Danger up from 52 a year ago

Median 11.7 % of income · usual range 9.06 % of income to 14.8 % of income

The year before past crises: median 13.1 % of income, from 11.7 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 15.8 % of income before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 77% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 87 a year ago

Median 74.9% of GDP · usual range 68% of GDP to 84.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 70.7% of GDP, from 68.1% of GDP before the Taper tantrum (2013) to 76.5% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1991–2025

Higher than 61% of years since 1988

↓Danger down from 50 a year ago

Median -7.9% of GDP · usual range -10.1% of GDP to -6.54% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -7.3% of GDP, from -7.8% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to -3.7% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 14% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1988–2025

Lower than 65% of years since 1996

↓Danger down from 68 a year ago

Median +1.5 pp of GDP · usual range -9.98 pp of GDP to +15.4 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +2 pp of GDP, from -8.9 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +8.9 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1991–2025

Higher than 66% of years since 1974

Median 20.2 % of spending · usual range 12.8 % of spending to 28.4 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 20.3 % of spending, from 13.2 % of spending before the Drought and second oil shock (1979) to 22.4 % of spending before the Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 6% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1974–2022

Lower than 63% of years since 1961

↑Danger up from 59 a year ago

Median 2.97% · usual range -20.9% to 30.9%

The year before past crises: median 5.75%, from -12% before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 27.8% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 9 crises: Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01INM661N 1957–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 60% of years since 1968

↓Danger down from 71 a year ago

Median 20.9% · usual range -41.5% to 111%

The year before past crises: median 13.5%, from -47.4% before the Drought and second oil shock (1979) to 143% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01INM661N 1957–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Lower than 68% of years since 1957

↑Danger up from 29 a year ago

Median 12.4% · usual range 6.89% to 28.5%

The year before past crises: median 8.92%, from 3.99% before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 33.2% before the Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01INM661N 1957–2026-08

Higher than 53% of years since 1960

↑Danger up from 42 a year ago

Median -7.85% · usual range -43.8% to 0%

The year before past crises: median 0%, from -33.5% before the Drought and second oil shock (1979) to 0% before the Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01INM661N 1957–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 98% of years since 2000

↑Danger up from 87 a year ago

Median 82.8% of GDP · usual range 49.5% of GDP to 145% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 83% of GDP, from 76.1% of GDP before the Taper tantrum (2013) to 161% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 2000–2025

Lower than 69% of years since 2010

→Danger about the same as a year ago (38)

Median 1.86% · usual range -2.48% to 9.9%

The year before past crises: median 6.65%, from -0.39% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 15.5% before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Sources: FRED QINR628BIS 2009–2026-01

Lower than 67% of years since 2017

↑Danger up from 11 a year ago

Median 6.05% · usual range -3.24% to 30%

The year before past crises: median 28.6%, from 25.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 31.9% before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: FRED QINR628BIS 2009–2026-01

Higher than 79% of years since 1975

↓Danger down from 34 a year ago

Median -1.07% of GDP · usual range -2.43% of GDP to 0.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -1.07% of GDP, from -5% of GDP before the Taper tantrum (2013) to 0.5% of GDP before the Drought and second oil shock (1979)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 7 crises: Drought and second oil shock (1979)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 74% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 1975–2025

Higher than 79% of years since 1958

↑Danger up from 57 a year ago

Median 3.16% · usual range -2.68% to 13.6%

The year before past crises: median 1.37%, from -8.7% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 14.5% before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED CCUSMA02INM618N 1957–2026-08

Lower than 100% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 13 a year ago

Median 3.31% · usual range -3.03% to 7.14%

The year before past crises: median 4.75%, from -0.77% before the Taper tantrum (2013) to 8.91% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data

Sources: FRED RBINBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1975

↓Danger down from 42 a year ago

Median 6.9 months of imports · usual range 3.99 months of imports to 10.6 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 8.16 months of imports, from 2.04 months of imports before the Balance-of-payments crisis (1991) to 11.1 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Drought and second oil shock (1979), Global financial crisis (2008), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1975–2025

Higher than 67% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 46 a year ago

Median 0.61% of GDP · usual range 0.02% of GDP to 2.04% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.41% of GDP, from 0.01% of GDP before the Drought and second oil shock (1979) to 2.09% of GDP before the Demonetization (2016)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 8 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (98)

Median 1.93 of 4 · usual range 1.4 of 4 to 3.46 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.18 of 4, from 1.2 of 4 before the Influenza and post-war slump (1918) to 3.76 of 4 before the Partition (1947)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), Great Depression (1929), Bengal famine and war (1943), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 32% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 66% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 46 a year ago

Median 2.77 of 4 · usual range 1.36 of 4 to 3.95 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.97 of 4, from 1.09 of 4 before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 3.95 of 4 before the Bengal famine and war (1943)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 14 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Global financial crisis (2008), Demonetization (2016)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 89% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (90)

Median 1.76 of 4 · usual range 1.49 of 4 to 2.84 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.76 of 4, from 1.49 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1913 to 2.73 of 4 before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), Great Depression (1929), Bengal famine and war (1943), Partition (1947), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 84% of years since 1850

↓Danger down from 58 a year ago

Median 1.98 of 4 · usual range 1.3 of 4 to 2.71 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.25 of 4, from 1.16 of 4 before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 2.82 of 4 before the Bengal famine and war (1943)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 14 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Drought and second oil shock (1979)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1856 (3.92 of 4), 1857 (3.92 of 4), 1858 (3.92 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 55% of years since 1856

↓Danger down from 80 a year ago

Median 0.75 of 4 · usual range 0.29 of 4 to 1.13 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.91 of 4, from 0.23 of 4 before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 1.21 of 4 before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1856 (3.92 of 4), 1857 (3.92 of 4), 1858 (3.92 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1856–2025

Lower than 87% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 89 a year ago

Median +0.1 points · usual range -4.4 points to +4.9 points

The year before past crises: median -0.8 points, from -16.4 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +5.9 points before the Drought and second oil shock (1979)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), Great Depression (1929), Bengal famine and war (1943), Partition (1947), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 75% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1935 (+4.9 points), 1936 (+4.8 points), 1937 (+4.9 points), 1938 (+4.9 points), 1939 (+4.9 points), 1950 (+10 points), 1951 (+12.1 points), 1952 (+31.9 points), 1953 (+35.3 points), 1954 (+35.2 points), 1955 (+24.4 points), 1956 (+22 points), 1957 (+5.2 points), 1972 (-4.7 points), 1973 (-5.1 points), 1974 (-8.1 points), 1975 (-20.7 points), 1976 (-19.3 points), 1977 (-11 points), 1978 (+5.9 points), 1979 (+9 points), 1980 (+21.7 points), 1981 (+23.4 points), 1982 (+15.2 points), 1992 (+5.1 points), 1993 (+5.9 points), 1994 (+6.5 points), 2009 (-3.9 points), 2010 (-4.1 points), 2012 (-4.4 points), 2013 (-4.7 points), 2014 (-5.1 points), 2015 (-11.5 points), 2016 (-12.6 points), 2017 (-15.4 points), 2018 (-15.9 points), 2019 (-16.4 points), 2020 (-12.5 points), 2021 (-9.9 points), 2022 (-8 points), 2023 (-9 points), 2024 (-4.3 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1952

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 0.14 · usual range 0.05 to 0.29

The year before past crises: median 0.19, from 0.04 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0.36 before the War, drought and devaluation (1965)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUIIND 1952–2026-04

Lower than 99% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 4 a year ago

Median 13.4% · usual range 10.5% to 19.1%

The year before past crises: median 12.5%, from 10.2% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 17.1% before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1960–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 14.1% · usual range 10.6% to 21.9%

The year before past crises: median 17.3%, from 9.52% before the Drought and second oil shock (1979) to 22.7% before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 10 crises: Great Depression (1929), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Lower than 56% of years since 1850

Median 1.71 of 4 · usual range 1.34 of 4 to 1.71 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.54 of 4, from 0.89 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.71 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1913

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 14 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Off the chart: 1850 (2.45 of 4), 1851 (2.45 of 4), 1852 (2.45 of 4), 1853 (2.45 of 4), 1854 (2.45 of 4), 1855 (2.45 of 4), 1856 (2.45 of 4), 1857 (2.45 of 4), 2020 (0.66 of 4), 2021 (0.72 of 4), 2022 (0.72 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1861

Median 7.34% of GDP · usual range 5.26% of GDP to 27% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 14.2% of GDP, from 4.49% of GDP before the Great Depression (1929) to 27.4% of GDP before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), Great Depression (1929), Bengal famine and war (1943), Partition (1947), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1861–2024

Higher than 80% of years since 1856

Median 0.49 of 4 · usual range 0.23 of 4 to 1.22 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.56 of 4, from 0.23 of 4 before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 1.55 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), Great Depression (1929), Bengal famine and war (1943), Partition (1947), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Sources: V-Dem 1856–2025

Higher than 86% of years since 1856

Median 0.4 of 4 · usual range 0.29 of 4 to 0.85 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.53 of 4, from 0.23 of 4 before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 1.04 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), Great Depression (1929), Bengal famine and war (1943), Partition (1947), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Off the chart: 1856 (3.92 of 4), 1857 (3.92 of 4), 1858 (3.92 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1856–2025

Higher than 98% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (97)

Median 5 of 100 · usual range 2.4 of 100 to 55.1 of 100

The year before past crises: median 37.4 of 100, from 3.1 of 100 before the Banking crisis of 1913 to 62.5 of 100 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), Great Depression (1929), Bengal famine and war (1943), Partition (1947), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 87% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 94 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -6.8 points to +2.1 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -9.9 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +1.6 points before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), Great Depression (1929), Bengal famine and war (1943), Partition (1947), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1859 (+30.2 points), 1860 (+30.2 points), 1861 (+28.1 points), 1862 (+33.5 points), 1863 (+33.5 points), 1975 (-17.9 points), 1976 (-18.9 points), 1977 (-10.1 points), 1980 (+16 points), 1981 (+17 points), 1982 (+8.2 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 77% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 90 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -5 points to +6.3 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -30.6 points before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018) to +14.3 points before the Partition (1947)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 14 crises: Partition (1947), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1878 (-6.7 points), 1879 (-6.7 points), 1880 (-6.7 points), 1882 (+6.3 points), 1883 (+20.2 points), 1884 (+20.2 points), 1885 (+20.2 points), 1886 (+10 points), 1887 (+8.4 points), 1945 (+14.3 points), 1946 (+14.3 points), 1947 (+26.2 points), 1948 (+49.4 points), 1949 (+49.4 points), 1950 (+40.2 points), 1951 (+40.2 points), 1952 (+28.3 points), 1953 (+5.1 points), 1954 (+5.1 points), 1974 (-9.1 points), 1975 (-42.7 points), 1976 (-43.1 points), 1977 (-13.8 points), 1979 (+13.5 points), 1980 (+46.1 points), 1981 (+46.5 points), 1982 (+17.4 points), 2014 (-7.3 points), 2015 (-23.1 points), 2016 (-27.7 points), 2017 (-30.6 points), 2018 (-32.3 points), 2019 (-28.5 points), 2020 (-20.9 points), 2021 (-14.6 points), 2022 (-12.6 points), 2023 (-12.4 points), 2024 (-5 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1858

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 2.6 of 4 · usual range 0.77 of 4 to 2.6 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.03 of 4, from 0.67 of 4 before the Drought and second oil shock (1979) to 2.71 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), Great Depression (1929), Bengal famine and war (1943), Partition (1947), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1858–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 0 before the War, drought and devaluation (1965)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Lower than 99% of years since 1989

↓Danger down from 20 a year ago

Median 1,387 · usual range 504 to 3,141

The year before past crises: median 775, from 569 before the Demonetization (2016) to 4,785 before the Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 93% of years since 1997

↑Danger up from 59 a year ago

Median 74.7 · usual range 54.3 to 142

The year before past crises: median 72.7, from 52.9 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 185 before the Taper tantrum (2013)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1997–2026-07

Higher than 86% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 61 a year ago

Median 0.2 % of articles · usual range 0.1 % of articles to 0.36 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.2 % of articles, from 0.1 % of articles before the Great Depression (1929) to 0.86 % of articles before the Bengal famine and war (1943)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Influenza and post-war slump (1918), Great Depression (1929), Partition (1947), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1942 (0.86 % of articles), 1944 (1.02 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 93% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 4 a year ago

Median 20.9% · usual range 18.7% to 24.9%

The year before past crises: median 24.1%, from 21.9% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 25.6% before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 7.08 per 100 workers · usual range 6.55 per 100 workers to 9.16 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 7.63 per 100 workers, from 6.4 per 100 workers before the War, drought and devaluation (1965) to 9.3 per 100 workers before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 0%, from -47.8% before the Demonetization (2016) to 25% before the Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 18% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 2.75%, from -4.83% before the Drought and second oil shock (1979) to 12.5% before the Demonetization (2016)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Drought and second oil shock (1979), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 28% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 17.1, from 11.1 before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018) to 23.1 before the Balance-of-payments crisis (1991)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median -4.51%, from -31.8% before the Demonetization (2016) to 13.3% before the Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Shadow-bank crisis (2018)

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median -3.06%, from -16.9% before the Demonetization (2016) to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 149, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 86.9, from 37.2 before the Great Depression (1929) to 306 before the Bengal famine and war (1943)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1913, Great Depression (1929), Partition (1947), War, drought and devaluation (1965), Oil shock (1973), Drought and second oil shock (1979), Balance-of-payments crisis (1991), Global financial crisis (2008), Taper tantrum (2013), Demonetization (2016), Shadow-bank crisis (2018), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 28% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09