Germany

Lower than 75% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 80 a year ago

Median 2.81% · usual range -1.49% to 9.59%

The year before past crises: median 3.26%, from -6.72% before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 31.7% before the Post-reunification recession (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1944 (-15.8%), 1945 (-65.2%), 1946 (-37.1%), 1991 (31.7%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CLVMNACSCAB1GQDE 2021–2026-04

Higher than 58% of years since 1887

↑Danger up from 54 a year ago

Median 3.8% · usual range 0.7% to 8.62%

The year before past crises: median 3.22%, from 0.9% before the Oil shock (1973) to 9.5% before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1887–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTDEM156S 2021–2026-07

Higher than 65% of years since 1888

↓Danger down from 70 a year ago

Median -0.1 pp · usual range -1.7 pp to +1.9 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.08 pp, from -1.59 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +3.6 pp before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 14 crises: Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1934 (-6.5 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1887–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTDEM156S 2021–2026-07

Lower than 53% of years since 1992

↓Danger down from 88 a year ago

Median 0.82% · usual range -4.18% to 5.7%

The year before past crises: median 2.86%, from -3.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 6.05% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2009 (-16.4%)

Sources: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m) 1991–2026-08

Higher than 64% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 22 a year ago

Median 20% of GDP · usual range 10.6% of GDP to 25.8% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 17.9% of GDP, from 12.4% of GDP before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 28.7% of GDP before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 59% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 73 a year ago

Median 2.28% · usual range -3.13% to 7.82%

The year before past crises: median 2.55%, from -4.2% before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 30.8% before the Post-reunification recession (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Hyperinflation (1922), World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1914 (-16.6%), 1924 (23.1%), 1944 (-16.5%), 1945 (-16.4%), 1946 (-21.2%), 1991 (30.8%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2021–2025

Lower than 84% of years since 1971

↓Danger down from 92 a year ago

Median 4.97% · usual range -1.33% to 11.3%

The year before past crises: median 6.18%, from 2.07% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 11% before the Post-reunification recession (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1971–2025

Lower than 62% of years since 1963

↓Danger down from 83 a year ago

Median -7.18 · usual range -24 to 9.29

The year before past crises: median -8.03, from -13.4 before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000) to 17.2 before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 7 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED BSCICP02DEM460S 1963–2026-08

Higher than 68% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 1 a year ago

Median 2.09% · usual range -0.88% to 7.02%

The year before past crises: median 2.59%, from -3.9% before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 31.1% before the Hyperinflation (1922)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 15 crises: Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (25.5%), 1916 (31.6%), 1917 (50%), 1918 (23%), 1919 (32.8%), 1920 (145%), 1921 (31.1%), 1922 (1,024%), 1923 (1.1e+11%), 1924 (729%), 1932 (-11%), 1948 (15.4%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CP0000DEM086NEST 2021–2026-08

Higher than 73% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 12 a year ago

Median -0.04 pp · usual range -1.61 pp to +1.35 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.03 pp, from -2.61 pp before the Banking crisis of 1931 to +2.51 pp before the Early 1980s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1973 (+5.88 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01DEM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 86% of years since 1997

→Danger about the same as a year ago (72)

Median 1.3% · usual range 0.63% to 2.87%

The year before past crises: median 1.62%, from 0.49% before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000) to 2.2% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 78% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2022 (3.95%), 2023 (5.12%)

Sources: Eurostat (prc_hicp_minr) 1996–2026-09

Lower than 80% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 79 a year ago

Median 3.57% · usual range 1.79% to 7.28%

The year before past crises: median 4.13%, from -0.58% before the Energy shock (2022) to 8.84% before the Post-reunification recession (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01DEM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 77% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 44 a year ago

Median +1.79 pp · usual range -1.9 pp to +5.44 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.76 pp, from -27.6 pp before the Hyperinflation (1922) to +9.56 pp before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 15 crises: Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War II and collapse (1939), Early 1980s recession, Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (-21.6 pp), 1916 (-26.9 pp), 1917 (-45.4 pp), 1918 (-18.4 pp), 1919 (-28.2 pp), 1920 (-142 pp), 1921 (-27.6 pp), 1922 (-1,018 pp), 1924 (-718 pp), 1931 (+16.6 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01DEM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000DEM086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 80% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 68 a year ago

Median 7.47% · usual range 1.66% to 14.8%

The year before past crises: median 4.6%, from -46.4% before the Hyperinflation (1922) to 30.6% before the Gründerkrach (1873)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 15 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession, Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1917 (38.6%), 1919 (46.1%), 1920 (50.1%), 1921 (-46.4%), 1922 (1,009%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · ECB (BSI) 2021–2026-08

Lower than 86% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 24 a year ago

Median +7.74 pp of GDP · usual range -10.1 pp of GDP to +14.7 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +8.05 pp of GDP, from -12.5 pp of GDP before the World War II and collapse (1939) to +29.7 pp of GDP before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 12 crises: World War II and collapse (1939), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1920 (-56 pp of GDP), 1924 (-72.1 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QDEPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 63% of years since 1950

↓Danger down from 67 a year ago

Median 30.5% of GDP · usual range 12.3% of GDP to 42.6% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 37.6% of GDP, from 26.6% of GDP before the Oil shock (1973) to 43% of GDP before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 7 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1950–2020 · FRED QDEHAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 73% of years since 1879

↓Danger down from 76 a year ago

Median -1.27 pp of GDP · usual range -9.46 pp of GDP to +3.16 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.8 pp of GDP, from -14.1 pp of GDP before the World War II and collapse (1939) to +8.1 pp of GDP before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 11 crises: World War I (1914), World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1917 (-27.6 pp of GDP), 1920 (-38.1 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QDEPAM770A 2021–2025

Higher than 73% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (74)

Median 66.7% of GDP · usual range 29.4% of GDP to 96.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 75% of GDP, from 26.3% of GDP before the Great Depression (1929) to 102% of GDP before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 14 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QDEPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 51% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 47.1% of GDP · usual range 22.4% of GDP to 56.1% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 49.6% of GDP, from 38% of GDP before the Early 1980s recession to 58.7% of GDP before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 7 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1950–2020 · FRED QDENAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 55% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (46)

Median 6.61 % of assets · usual range 3.4 % of assets to 16.9 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 7.53 % of assets, from 3.31 % of assets before the Early 1980s recession to 26.7 % of assets before the Gründerkrach (1873)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II and collapse (1939)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2022–2025

Higher than 88% of years since 2022

↑Danger up from 63 a year ago

Median 1.65 % of loans · usual range 1.33 % of loans to 1.85 % of loans

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2022–2025

Lower than 93% of years since 1870

Median 118% · usual range 86.2% to 144%

The year before past crises: median 116%, from 84.9% before the Energy shock (2022) to 149% before the Gründerkrach (1873)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 14 crises: Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 2021–2021

Higher than 78% of years since 2003

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 1.56% · usual range -3.84% to 18%

The year before past crises: median 1.56%, from -9.37% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 3.13% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Sources: ECB (BLS) 2003–2026-07

Lower than 96% of years since 1999

→Danger about the same as a year ago (4)

Median 7.05 % of income · usual range 5.69 % of income to 9.43 % of income

The year before past crises: median 7.04 % of income, from 5.9 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 9.55 % of income before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 100% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Lower than 93% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 22 a year ago

Median 12.9 % of income · usual range 12.2 % of income to 15.2 % of income

The year before past crises: median 13.2 % of income, from 12.3 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14.3 % of income before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 84% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 82 a year ago

Median 41.1% of GDP · usual range 18% of GDP to 68% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 43% of GDP, from 18% of GDP before the Gründerkrach (1873) to 68.6% of GDP before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 14 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 93% of years since 1873

↑Danger up from 91 a year ago

Median -0.46% of GDP · usual range -2.09% of GDP to 1.13% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -1.27% of GDP, from -11.7% of GDP before the World War II and collapse (1939) to 2.05% of GDP before the Leipziger Bank collapse (1901)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1938 (-11.7% of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1873–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 92% of years since 1876

↓Danger down from 51 a year ago

Median +3 pp of GDP · usual range -4 pp of GDP to +14 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median 0 pp of GDP, from -16.7 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +12.9 pp of GDP before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 11 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1941 (+67 pp of GDP), 1942 (+102 pp of GDP), 1943 (+132 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Higher than 54% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 58 a year ago

Median -0.35 pp · usual range -9.71 pp to +3.7 pp

The year before past crises: median -1.37 pp, from -31.1 pp before the Hyperinflation (1922) to +16.8 pp before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1916 (-23.8 pp), 1917 (-29.3 pp), 1920 (-149 pp), 1921 (-31.1 pp), 1924 (-733 pp), 1931 (+27.1 pp), 1932 (+26.6 pp), 1948 (-27.1 pp), 1949 (-22.7 pp), 1991 (-26.8 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01DEM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000DEM086NEST 2021–2025 · FRED CLVMNACSCAB1GQDE 2021–2025

Lower than 95% of years since 1972

Median 5.17 % of spending · usual range 1.62 % of spending to 6.77 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 2.96 % of spending, from 0.88 % of spending before the Energy shock (2022) to 6.77 % of spending before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 7 crises: Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1972–2022

Lower than 89% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (10)

Median 4.56% · usual range 2.73% to 7.89%

The year before past crises: median 4.49%, from -0.37% before the Energy shock (2022) to 8.46% before the Post-reunification recession (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 15 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01DEM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 87% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (86)

Median -0.03 pp · usual range -0.7 pp to +0.75 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.04 pp, from -0.65 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +1.6 pp before the Early 1980s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1926 (-2.43 pp), 1956 (+1.91 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01DEM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 57% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (58)

Median +1.03 pp · usual range -0.78 pp to +2.68 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.21 pp, from -1.2 pp before the Great Depression (1929) to +3.58 pp before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 15 crises: Hyperinflation (1922), World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01DEM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED IR3TIB01DEM156N 2021–2025

Lower than 78% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 24 a year ago

Median +3.27 pp · usual range -1.78 pp to +5.85 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.39 pp, from -25.4 pp before the Hyperinflation (1922) to +10.1 pp before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Hyperinflation (1922), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 32% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (-19.7 pp), 1916 (-25 pp), 1917 (-44 pp), 1918 (-17.1 pp), 1919 (-26.4 pp), 1920 (-139 pp), 1921 (-25.4 pp), 1924 (-721 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01DEM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000DEM086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 51% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 12 a year ago

Median 2.5% · usual range -21.6% to 30.2%

The year before past crises: median 1.1%, from -29.1% before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 65.6% before the Hyperinflation (1922)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 15 crises: Hyperinflation (1922), Oil shock (1973), Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1923 (140%), 1926 (117%), 1949 (121%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01DEM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000DEM086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 78% of years since 1878

→Danger about the same as a year ago (78)

Median 6.33% · usual range -58.8% to 49.3%

The year before past crises: median 3.04%, from -76.6% before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 112% before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1959 (219%), 1960 (229%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01DEM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000DEM086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 64% of years since 1960

↓Danger down from 62 a year ago

Median 12.3% · usual range 7.49% to 21.3%

The year before past crises: median 11%, from 7.79% before the Energy shock (2022) to 13.7% before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 7 crises: Early 1980s recession, COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01DEM661N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 66% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median -11.3% · usual range -55.4% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -11%, from -89.3% before the Great Depression (1929) to 0% before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 15 crises: Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01DEM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000DEM086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 87% of years since 1975

↑Danger up from 66 a year ago

Median 37.2% of GDP · usual range 10.4% of GDP to 57.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 55.2% of GDP, from 8.98% of GDP before the Early 1980s recession to 64.7% of GDP before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 77% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1975–2025

Lower than 60% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 13 a year ago

Median 0.99% · usual range -9.09% to 11.8%

The year before past crises: median 1.26%, from -27.3% before the Banking crisis of 1931 to 27.4% before the Gründerkrach (1873)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 15 crises: Oil shock (1973), Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1916 (-38.2%), 1920 (-37.7%), 1922 (-85.4%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QDER628BIS 2021–2026-01

Lower than 72% of years since 1878

↓Danger down from 35 a year ago

Median 3.11% · usual range -16% to 26.9%

The year before past crises: median 13.4%, from -77.3% before the Hyperinflation (1922) to 70.3% before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 14 crises: Hyperinflation (1922), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QDER628BIS 2021–2026-01

Higher than 85% of years since 1872

↑Danger up from 10 a year ago

Median 1.57% of GDP · usual range -0.73% of GDP to 5.93% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.33% of GDP, from -1.52% of GDP before the Great Depression (1929) to 7.42% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 14 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1872–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2021–2025

Higher than 69% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 18 a year ago

Median 0% · usual range -10.5% to 13.6%

The year before past crises: median 0.12%, from -10.5% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 65.8% before the Hyperinflation (1922)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1917 (19.2%), 1919 (229%), 1920 (219%), 1921 (65.8%), 1922 (1,703%), 1923 (2.8e+10%), 1924 (685%), 1933 (-36.2%), 1947 (34.3%), 1949 (-70.5%), 1950 (-30.6%), 1985 (-21.8%), 1986 (-21.2%), 1987 (-18.5%), 2003 (-17%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CCUSMA02DEM618N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 79% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median -2.06% · usual range -7.25% to 0.68%

The year before past crises: median 0.51%, from -1.88% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 0.73% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED RBDEBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 65% of years since 1971

↓Danger down from 52 a year ago

Median 2.22 months of imports · usual range 1.39 months of imports to 5.29 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 2 months of imports, from 1.1 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 6.19 months of imports before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1971–2025

Higher than 72% of years since 1971

↓Danger down from 43 a year ago

Median 0.63% of GDP · usual range 0.04% of GDP to 2.89% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.46% of GDP, from 0.2% of GDP before the Early 1980s recession to 3.89% of GDP before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 7 crises: Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2000 (12.6% of GDP)

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1971–2025

Higher than 65% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (65)

Median 1.8 of 4 · usual range 0.44 of 4 to 3.68 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.83 of 4, from 0.44 of 4 before the Post-reunification recession (1992) to 3.93 of 4 before the World War II and collapse (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 67% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 87 a year ago

Median 2.59 of 4 · usual range 1.93 of 4 to 3.92 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.78 of 4, from 2.14 of 4 before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000) to 3.94 of 4 before the World War II and collapse (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 13 crises: Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Oil shock (1973), Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 53% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (53)

Median 1.42 of 4 · usual range 0.35 of 4 to 3.35 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.1 of 4, from 0.47 of 4 before the Post-reunification recession (1992) to 3.67 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 13 crises: Oil shock (1973), Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 69% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 56% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (56)

Median 0.86 of 4 · usual range 0.28 of 4 to 2.24 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.11 of 4, from 0.28 of 4 before the Post-reunification recession (1992) to 3.91 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 15 crises: World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 55% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (45)

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.14 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Gründerkrach (1873) to 0.23 of 4 before the Leipziger Bank collapse (1901)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 95% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (96)

Median +0.1 points · usual range -2.1 points to +3.2 points

The year before past crises: median +0.2 points, from -4.5 points before the World War II and collapse (1939) to +30.1 points before the Hyperinflation (1922)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1919 (+23.7 points), 1920 (+29.1 points), 1921 (+30.1 points), 1922 (+29.6 points), 1923 (+27.9 points), 1933 (-42.8 points), 1934 (-47.1 points), 1935 (-45.8 points), 1936 (-44.3 points), 1937 (-42.1 points), 1949 (+73.1 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1953

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 0.12 · usual range 0.03 to 0.3

The year before past crises: median 0.13, from 0.1 before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000) to 0.62 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 7 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2025 (0.82)

Sources: FRED WUIDEU 1953–2026-04

Lower than 76% of years since 1985

↑Danger up from 56 a year ago

Median -8.32 · usual range -17.4 to -0.95

The year before past crises: median -5.26, from -9.93 before the Post-reunification recession (1992) to -1.87 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Eurostat (ei_bsco_m) 1985–2026-09

Higher than 52% of years since 1887

↑Danger up from 41 a year ago

Median 6.7% · usual range 2.73% to 13.6%

The year before past crises: median 6.45%, from 2.1% before the World War II and collapse (1939) to 32.3% before the Hyperinflation (1922)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 14 crises: Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1916 (33.8%), 1917 (51%), 1919 (36.5%), 1920 (147%), 1922 (1,024%), 1923 (1.1e+11%), 1924 (735%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTDEM156S 2021–2026-07 · FRED CP0000DEM086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 52% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (48)

Median 13.5% · usual range 9.8% to 21.9%

The year before past crises: median 13.8%, from 10.3% before the Post-reunification recession (1992) to 22.4% before the Leipziger Bank collapse (1901)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 12 crises: Banking crisis of 1931, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Lower than 85% of years since 1850

Median 1.03 of 4 · usual range 0.54 of 4 to 1.04 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.03 of 4, from 0.31 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 2.09 of 4 before the World War II and collapse (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 15 crises: Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Off the chart: 1933 (1.67 of 4), 1934 (2.02 of 4), 1935 (2.02 of 4), 1936 (2.09 of 4), 1937 (2.09 of 4), 1938 (2.09 of 4), 1939 (2.23 of 4), 1940 (2.23 of 4), 1941 (2.23 of 4), 1942 (2.23 of 4), 1943 (2.23 of 4), 1944 (2.23 of 4), 2000 (0.31 of 4), 2001 (0.31 of 4), 2002 (0.31 of 4), 2003 (0.31 of 4), 2004 (0.31 of 4), 2005 (0.31 of 4), 2006 (0.31 of 4), 2007 (0.31 of 4), 2008 (0.31 of 4), 2013 (0.35 of 4), 2014 (0.35 of 4), 2015 (0.35 of 4), 2016 (0.35 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 94% of years since 1872

Median 12.3% of GDP · usual range 4.16% of GDP to 14.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 11.6% of GDP, from 4.83% of GDP before the Banking crisis of 1891 to 31.6% of GDP before the World War II and collapse (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 14 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1872–2020 · IMF Public Finances in Modern History 2021–2024

Higher than 64% of years since 1850

Median 0.09 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 1.71 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.28 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Gründerkrach (1873) to 3.12 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Oil shock (1973), Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 88% of years since 1850

Median 0.23 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 1.05 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.46 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Gründerkrach (1873) to 3.12 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Off the chart: 1919 (2.77 of 4), 1920 (2.65 of 4), 1921 (2.9 of 4), 1922 (2.9 of 4), 1923 (2.9 of 4), 1924 (2.83 of 4), 1925 (2.59 of 4), 1926 (2.59 of 4), 1927 (2.59 of 4), 1928 (2.59 of 4), 1929 (3.07 of 4), 1930 (3.12 of 4), 1931 (3.18 of 4), 1932 (3.18 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 56% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (44)

Median 7.7 of 100 · usual range 1.1 of 100 to 9.15 of 100

The year before past crises: median 7.7 of 100, from 1.1 of 100 before the Oil shock (1973) to 26.5 of 100 before the World War II and collapse (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 15 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 55% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (55)

Median 0 points · usual range -0.3 points to +2.9 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -22.8 points before the World War II and collapse (1939) to +4.1 points before the Hyperinflation (1922)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1867 (+2.9 points), 1868 (+2.9 points), 1869 (+2.9 points), 1870 (+2.9 points), 1871 (+6.4 points), 1872 (+3.5 points), 1873 (+3.5 points), 1874 (+3.5 points), 1875 (+3.5 points), 1890 (+3.7 points), 1891 (+3.7 points), 1892 (+3.7 points), 1893 (+3.7 points), 1894 (+3.7 points), 1914 (-1.5 points), 1915 (-2.1 points), 1916 (-2.6 points), 1917 (-3.1 points), 1918 (-3.5 points), 1919 (+1.8 points), 1920 (+3.4 points), 1921 (+4.1 points), 1922 (+4.4 points), 1923 (+4.8 points), 1924 (+1.2 points), 1932 (-2.3 points), 1933 (-46 points), 1934 (-68.8 points), 1935 (-68.3 points), 1936 (-68.4 points), 1937 (-66.5 points), 1938 (-22.8 points), 1949 (+78.3 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 93% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (94)

Median 0 points · usual range -2 points to +2.6 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -23.3 points before the World War II and collapse (1939) to +31.8 points before the Hyperinflation (1922)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 14 of 15 crises: Gründerkrach (1873), Banking crisis of 1891, Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1861 (+24.5 points), 1862 (+25.3 points), 1863 (+25.3 points), 1864 (+25.3 points), 1865 (+25.3 points), 1871 (+5.4 points), 1872 (+5.4 points), 1873 (+5.4 points), 1874 (+5.4 points), 1914 (-6.3 points), 1915 (-7.2 points), 1916 (-7.3 points), 1917 (-6.8 points), 1919 (+29 points), 1920 (+31.7 points), 1921 (+31.8 points), 1922 (+30.4 points), 1923 (+26.2 points), 1933 (-56.2 points), 1934 (-78.8 points), 1935 (-78.7 points), 1936 (-78.7 points), 1937 (-78.9 points), 1938 (-23.3 points), 1949 (+90.4 points), 2024 (-4.2 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 56% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (44)

Median 0.23 of 4 · usual range 0.07 of 4 to 1.35 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.23 of 4, from 0.05 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 3.93 of 4 before the World War II and collapse (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 15 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil shock (1973) to 0 before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Lower than 55% of years since 1989

→Danger about the same as a year ago (45)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0.3

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Post-reunification recession (1992) to 0 before the Post-reunification recession (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 13% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 94% of years since 1993

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 135 · usual range 81.6 to 516

The year before past crises: median 153, from 87.8 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 305 before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2024 (740), 2025 (1,038)

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1993–2026-07

Lower than 63% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 56 a year ago

Median 0.43 % of articles · usual range 0.25 % of articles to 2.2 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.34 % of articles, from 0.25 % of articles before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 1.58 % of articles before the World War II and collapse (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1914 (4.12 % of articles), 1915 (6.18 % of articles), 1916 (5.15 % of articles), 1917 (6.78 % of articles), 1918 (8.28 % of articles), 1919 (2.81 % of articles), 1939 (3.57 % of articles), 1940 (4.06 % of articles), 1941 (4.51 % of articles), 1942 (4.21 % of articles), 1943 (5.53 % of articles), 1944 (6.58 % of articles), 1945 (3.19 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 73% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 19 a year ago

Median 8.12% · usual range 6.03% to 11.6%

The year before past crises: median 6.67%, from 5.51% before the Post-reunification recession (1992) to 11.8% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Post-reunification recession (1992), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 15% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 23.3 per 100 workers · usual range 20.1 per 100 workers to 33.2 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 23.9 per 100 workers, from 21.7 per 100 workers before the Post-reunification recession (1992) to 34.6 per 100 workers before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 9.47%, from -12.3% before the Post-reunification recession (1992) to 73.3% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 7 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 0.5%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 4.65% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 18.4, from 15.4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 24.5 before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median 7.22%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 52.6% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 5.44%, from -12.2% before the Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000) to 27% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 139, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 78% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 72.4, from 37.2 before the Great Depression (1929) to 115 before the Post-reunification recession (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 13 crises: Leipziger Bank collapse (1901), World War I (1914), Hyperinflation (1922), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1931, World War II and collapse (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Post-reunification recession (1992), Dot-com bust and stagnation (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09