France

Lower than 72% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (71)

Median 2.34% · usual range -3.61% to 7.05%

The year before past crises: median 2.38%, from -2.53% before the Popular Front devaluations (1936) to 8.9% before the Great Depression (1930)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1940 (-22.8%), 1944 (-23.6%), 1945 (25.5%), 1946 (35.5%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CLVMNACSCAB1GQFR 2021–2026-04

Higher than 61% of years since 1895

↑Danger up from 54 a year ago

Median 7.41% · usual range 1.85% to 10.9%

The year before past crises: median 6.42%, from 1% before the Great Depression (1930) to 14.5% before the Popular Front devaluations (1936)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1895–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTFRM156S 2021–2026-07

Higher than 81% of years since 1896

↑Danger up from 60 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -1.2 pp to +1.07 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.08 pp, from -3 pp before the Great Depression (1930) to +0.7 pp before the Popular Front devaluations (1936)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1927 (+8 pp), 1928 (-7 pp), 1931 (+4.5 pp), 1932 (+8.9 pp), 1936 (-4.1 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1895–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTFRM156S 2021–2026-07

Lower than 69% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median 0.62% · usual range -2.78% to 4.33%

The year before past crises: median 0.94%, from -0.22% before the ERM crisis and recession (1992) to 4.36% before the Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m) 1990–2026-08

Higher than 57% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 1 a year ago

Median 21.7% of GDP · usual range 13.4% of GDP to 28.2% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 23.5% of GDP, from 12.8% of GDP before the Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889) to 31.1% of GDP before the Franc crisis of 1957-58

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 15 crises: World War I (1914), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 74% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 62 a year ago

Median 1.9% · usual range -3.92% to 7.19%

The year before past crises: median 1.82%, from -2.53% before the Franc crisis (1924) to 7.84% before the Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1941 (-33.4%), 1942 (-21.2%), 1945 (34.7%), 1946 (29%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2021–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 1961

↑Danger up from 76 a year ago

Median 5.34% · usual range 0.41% to 11.1%

The year before past crises: median 6.49%, from 2.08% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 12.2% before the Oil shock (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1961–2025

Higher than 72% of years since 1976

↓Danger down from 66 a year ago

Median -7.39 · usual range -17.6 to 1.8

The year before past crises: median -9.01, from -17.1 before the ERM crisis and recession (1992) to 2.74 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED BSCICP02FRM460S 1976–2026-08

Higher than 55% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 41 a year ago

Median 2.1% · usual range -1.08% to 17%

The year before past crises: median 2.79%, from -8.54% before the Popular Front devaluations (1936) to 13.9% before the World War II (1939)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 15 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1920 (38.6%), 1945 (48.2%), 1946 (52.5%), 1947 (49.2%), 1948 (58.6%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CP0000FRM086NEST 2021–2026-08

Higher than 77% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 8 a year ago

Median -0.02 pp · usual range -1.1 pp to +1 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.31 pp, from -1.07 pp before the World War II (1939) to +3.96 pp before the Oil shock (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 15 crises: Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, ERM crisis and recession (1992), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (+4 pp), 1975 (-4.99 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01FRM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 76% of years since 1997

↑Danger up from 38 a year ago

Median 1.23% · usual range 0.6% to 2.07%

The year before past crises: median 0.97%, from 0.65% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.61% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Sources: Eurostat (prc_hicp_minr) 1996–2026-09

Lower than 69% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 58 a year ago

Median 3.04% · usual range 1.31% to 8.78%

The year before past crises: median 3.68%, from -0.57% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 11.9% before the Franc devaluations (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01FRM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 66% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 12 a year ago

Median +1.4 pp · usual range -8.51 pp to +5.06 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.53 pp, from -11.1 pp before the World War II (1939) to +11.8 pp before the Popular Front devaluations (1936)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 15 crises: Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1926 (-24.8 pp), 1937 (-22.4 pp), 1942 (-19 pp), 1943 (-22.3 pp), 1944 (-20.8 pp), 1945 (-46.9 pp), 1946 (-51.2 pp), 1947 (-47.7 pp), 1948 (-56.5 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01FRM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000FRM086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 70% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 47 a year ago

Median 5.72% · usual range -0.31% to 18.3%

The year before past crises: median 6.88%, from -4.95% before the Popular Front devaluations (1936) to 14.7% before the Oil shock (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 15 crises: Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Franc crisis of 1957-58, Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1978 (72.6%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · ECB (BSI) 2021–2026-08

Lower than 100% of years since 1905

↓Danger down from 31 a year ago

Median +5.23 pp of GDP · usual range -8.32 pp of GDP to +13 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +8.18 pp of GDP, from -9.95 pp of GDP before the Franc devaluations (1981) to +19.9 pp of GDP before the Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 13 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 76% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1900–2020 · FRED QFRPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 91% of years since 1958

→Danger about the same as a year ago (93)

Median 32.8% of GDP · usual range 13.3% of GDP to 59.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 34.2% of GDP, from 13.9% of GDP before the May 1968 and devaluation to 60.8% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1958–2020 · FRED QFRHAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 95% of years since 1909

→Danger about the same as a year ago (5)

Median +1.01 pp of GDP · usual range -5.6 pp of GDP to +6.19 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +1.8 pp of GDP, from -10.5 pp of GDP before the Franc devaluations (1981) to +9.42 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 13 crises: Franc devaluations (1981)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 76% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1900–2020 · FRED QFRPAM770A 2021–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (95)

Median 48.9% of GDP · usual range 16.5% of GDP to 98.5% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 52.6% of GDP, from 15.6% of GDP before the World War II (1939) to 112% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1900–2020 · FRED QFRPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 94% of years since 1958

→Danger about the same as a year ago (93)

Median 39.6% of GDP · usual range 32.6% of GDP to 50.4% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 40.2% of GDP, from 38.4% of GDP before the Franc devaluations (1981) to 51% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1958–2020 · FRED QFRNAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 58% of years since 1890

→Danger about the same as a year ago (43)

Median 4.93 % of assets · usual range 2.72 % of assets to 16.4 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 4.56 % of assets, from 2.6 % of assets before the Franc devaluations (1981) to 15.9 % of assets before the World War I (1914)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1890–2020 · World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2021–2024

Lower than 85% of years since 2008

↑Danger up from 3 a year ago

Median 3.24 % of loans · usual range 2.08 % of loans to 4.53 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 3.42 % of loans, from 2.51 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 4.33 % of loans before the Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 2 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2008–2024

Lower than 57% of years since 1946

Median 107% · usual range 52.8% to 130%

The year before past crises: median 108%, from 55.6% before the Franc crisis of 1957-58 to 149% before the ERM crisis and recession (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 8 crises: Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1946–2020 · World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 2021–2021

Higher than 87% of years since 2003

↑Danger up from 37 a year ago

Median 1.92% · usual range -6.92% to 30.3%

The year before past crises: median 4.17%, from -7.69% before the Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011) to 5.77% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Off the chart: 2003 (55.1%), 2008 (48.1%)

Sources: ECB (BLS) 2003–2026-07

Lower than 61% of years since 1999

→Danger about the same as a year ago (39)

Median 6.28 % of income · usual range 4.89 % of income to 6.58 % of income

The year before past crises: median 6.38 % of income, from 5.75 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 6.43 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 89% of years since 1999

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 18.3 % of income · usual range 16.1 % of income to 20 % of income

The year before past crises: median 17 % of income, from 16.8 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 19.5 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 86% of years since 1880

↑Danger up from 82 a year ago

Median 80.5% of GDP · usual range 19.8% of GDP to 141% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 85.3% of GDP, from 15.8% of GDP before the Oil shock (1974) to 217% of GDP before the Franc crisis (1924)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), World War I (1914), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 64% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 73 a year ago

Median -1.96% of GDP · usual range -7.11% of GDP to 0.35% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -2.38% of GDP, from -6.39% of GDP before the Franc crisis (1924) to 4.85% of GDP before the Great Depression (1930)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1930), May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (-31% of GDP), 1916 (-34.9% of GDP), 1917 (-43.6% of GDP), 1918 (-51.5% of GDP), 1919 (-27.1% of GDP), 1940 (-28.5% of GDP), 1944 (-22.9% of GDP), 1945 (-26.9% of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 54% of years since 1885

↓Danger down from 85 a year ago

Median +1.66 pp of GDP · usual range -16.8 pp of GDP to +18.2 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +2.57 pp of GDP, from -53.8 pp of GDP before the Great Depression (1930) to +23.2 pp of GDP before the Popular Front devaluations (1936)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1930), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1926 (-92.4 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1880–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Higher than 57% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 67 a year ago

Median -0.23 pp · usual range -11.8 pp to +6.55 pp

The year before past crises: median -2.13 pp, from -12 pp before the Franc crisis (1924) to +15.3 pp before the Popular Front devaluations (1936)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1920 (-41.1 pp), 1945 (-70.7 pp), 1946 (-84.6 pp), 1947 (-51.1 pp), 1948 (-65.1 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01FRM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000FRM086NEST 2021–2025 · FRED CLVMNACSCAB1GQFR 2021–2025

Lower than 72% of years since 1972

Median 4.54 % of spending · usual range 2.16 % of spending to 6.19 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 4.06 % of spending, from 1.24 % of spending before the Oil shock (1974) to 5.48 % of spending before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1972–2023

Lower than 56% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 30 a year ago

Median 4.31% · usual range 2.96% to 8.92%

The year before past crises: median 4.18%, from 0.13% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.1% before the Franc devaluations (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1930), World War II (1939), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01FRM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 90% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 87 a year ago

Median -0.04 pp · usual range -0.73 pp to +0.56 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.15 pp, from -0.9 pp before the Great Depression (1930) to +3.25 pp before the Franc devaluations (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1980 (+3.25 pp), 1981 (+2.72 pp), 1986 (-2.58 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01FRM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 71% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 32 a year ago

Median +1.22 pp · usual range -0.1 pp to +2.51 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.7 pp, from -0.58 pp before the Oil shock (1974) to +3.25 pp before the Franc crisis of 1957-58

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 15 crises: Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01FRM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED IR3TIB01FRM156N 2021–2025

Lower than 62% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 55 a year ago

Median +2.39 pp · usual range -11.5 pp to +6.03 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.54 pp, from -10.4 pp before the World War II (1939) to +12.7 pp before the Popular Front devaluations (1936)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 15 crises: Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), World War II (1939), Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (-24.8 pp), 1919 (-20.7 pp), 1920 (-33.5 pp), 1926 (-24.9 pp), 1937 (-21.9 pp), 1943 (-20.8 pp), 1944 (-19.5 pp), 1945 (-45.2 pp), 1946 (-49.1 pp), 1947 (-44.7 pp), 1948 (-51.8 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01FRM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000FRM086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 81% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (79)

Median 0 pp · usual range -1.12 pp to +1.96 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.29 pp, from -2.87 pp before the Great Depression (1930) to +4.64 pp before the Franc devaluations (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 14 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1981 (+5.74 pp), 1982 (+6.68 pp), 1983 (+5.57 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01FRM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED IRLTLT01DEM156N 2021–2025

Higher than 69% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 37 a year ago

Median 0% · usual range -26.8% to 23.5%

The year before past crises: median -1.37%, from -13.8% before the Oil shock (1974) to 23.8% before the Union Générale crash (1882)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Franc crisis (1924), ERM crisis and recession (1992), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1954 (112%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01FRM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000FRM086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 79% of years since 1878

↑Danger up from 77 a year ago

Median -3.28% · usual range -56.1% to 39.5%

The year before past crises: median -6.19%, from -56.7% before the May 1968 and devaluation to 66.8% before the Union Générale crash (1882)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01FRM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000FRM086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 94% of years since 1955

↓Danger down from 38 a year ago

Median 15.5% · usual range 9.69% to 24%

The year before past crises: median 15.3%, from 10.2% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 21% before the Franc crisis of 1957-58

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 8 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01FRM661N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 71% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 42 a year ago

Median -15.8% · usual range -57.1% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -14.8%, from -57.4% before the May 1968 and devaluation to 0% before the Union Générale crash (1882)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01FRM661N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000FRM086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 81% of years since 1975

Median 35.7% of GDP · usual range 7.55% of GDP to 97% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 50.4% of GDP, from 7.86% of GDP before the Franc devaluations (1981) to 103% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1975–2018

Lower than 64% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (28)

Median 1.45% · usual range -9.03% to 13.6%

The year before past crises: median 2.99%, from -14.7% before the World War II (1939) to 25.1% before the Franc crisis of 1957-58

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 15 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Popular Front devaluations (1936), May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QFRR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Lower than 75% of years since 1878

↓Danger down from 29 a year ago

Median 5.09% · usual range -30.9% to 54.4%

The year before past crises: median 19.4%, from -32.2% before the Franc crisis (1924) to 72.6% before the May 1968 and devaluation

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 15 crises: Franc crisis (1924), World War II (1939)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QFRR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Lower than 67% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 63 a year ago

Median 0.57% of GDP · usual range -1.26% of GDP to 4.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.1% of GDP, from -1.52% of GDP before the Franc crisis of 1957-58 to 4.04% of GDP before the Great Depression (1930)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1919 (-21.9% of GDP), 1948 (-14.9% of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2021–2025

Higher than 63% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 17 a year ago

Median 0% · usual range -9.23% to 15.2%

The year before past crises: median 0.24%, from -10.5% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 40.6% before the World War II (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1920 (94.4%), 1926 (47%), 1937 (51.1%), 1938 (40.6%), 1946 (588%), 1948 (73.3%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CCUSMA02FRM618N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 62% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 67 a year ago

Median -2.96% · usual range -5.96% to 1.53%

The year before past crises: median -2.02%, from -3.05% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.41% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data

Sources: FRED RBFRBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 78% of years since 1975

↓Danger down from 38 a year ago

Median 2.1 months of imports · usual range 1.56 months of imports to 4.01 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 2.16 months of imports, from 1.41 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 5.26 months of imports before the Franc devaluations (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Franc devaluations (1981)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1975–2025

Higher than 74% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 30 a year ago

Median 1.22% of GDP · usual range 0.37% of GDP to 3.23% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.34% of GDP, from 0.43% of GDP before the Oil shock (1974) to 3.15% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Higher than 91% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (91)

Median 2.56 of 4 · usual range 2.02 of 4 to 3.32 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.42 of 4, from 1.91 of 4 before the Franc crisis (1924) to 3.5 of 4 before the Popular Front devaluations (1936)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 93% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 85 a year ago

Median 1.66 of 4 · usual range 1.2 of 4 to 2.99 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.05 of 4, from 1.2 of 4 before the Oil shock (1974) to 3.66 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 82% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 89 a year ago

Median 1.26 of 4 · usual range 0.72 of 4 to 2.21 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.51 of 4, from 0.72 of 4 before the World War I (1914) to 2.41 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 77% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (77)

Median 1.21 of 4 · usual range 0.4 of 4 to 2.36 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.43 of 4, from 0.22 of 4 before the ERM crisis and recession (1992) to 2.36 of 4 before the Union Générale crash (1882)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 15 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (15)

Median 0.16 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.55 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.18 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Union Générale crash (1882) to 0.65 of 4 before the Franc crisis of 1957-58

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1941 (1.24 of 4), 1942 (1.24 of 4), 1943 (1.24 of 4), 1944 (1.24 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 62% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 44 a year ago

Median +0.5 points · usual range -2 points to +6.5 points

The year before past crises: median +0.5 points, from -2.8 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +8.8 points before the Oil shock (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Franc crisis (1924), May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1855 (-23.6 points), 1871 (+14.2 points), 1872 (+19.9 points), 1873 (+19.9 points), 1874 (+20.9 points), 1875 (+15.2 points), 1940 (-33.8 points), 1941 (-39.6 points), 1942 (-39.6 points), 1943 (-39.6 points), 1944 (-38.2 points), 1946 (+20.7 points), 1947 (+53.6 points), 1948 (+56.1 points), 1949 (+56.2 points), 1950 (+45 points), 1951 (+36.3 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1953

→Danger about the same as a year ago (100)

Median 0.15 · usual range 0.04 to 0.29

The year before past crises: median 0.12, from 0 before the Franc crisis of 1957-58 to 0.35 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2025 (0.96)

Sources: FRED WUIFRA 1953–2026-04

Lower than 95% of years since 1985

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median -9.89 · usual range -16.8 to -4.64

The year before past crises: median -9.26, from -12.5 before the Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011) to -5.8 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Eurostat (ei_bsco_m) 1985–2026-09

Higher than 59% of years since 1895

↑Danger up from 36 a year ago

Median 10.1% · usual range 4.47% to 16.6%

The year before past crises: median 9.52%, from 4.61% before the May 1968 and devaluation to 21.7% before the World War II (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTFRM156S 2021–2026-07 · FRED CP0000FRM086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 67% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (67)

Median 11.1% · usual range 8.65% to 20.9%

The year before past crises: median 11.2%, from 7.54% before the Franc devaluations (1981) to 23.3% before the Franc crisis (1924)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 12 crises: Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Higher than 69% of years since 1850

Median 0.87 of 4 · usual range 0.76 of 4 to 1.83 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.05 of 4, from 0.76 of 4 before the Union Générale crash (1882) to 1.83 of 4 before the Franc crisis of 1957-58

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 67% of years since 1870

Median 21.5% of GDP · usual range 11.2% of GDP to 26.4% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 20.9% of GDP, from 10.2% of GDP before the World War I (1914) to 25.6% of GDP before the Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), World War II (1939), May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF Public Finances in Modern History 2021–2024

Higher than 82% of years since 1850

Median 0.5 of 4 · usual range 0.2 of 4 to 2.36 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.28 of 4, from 0.11 of 4 before the ERM crisis and recession (1992) to 2.36 of 4 before the Union Générale crash (1882)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 15 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 80% of years since 1850

Median 0.73 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 2.36 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.73 of 4, from 0.15 of 4 before the ERM crisis and recession (1992) to 2.36 of 4 before the Union Générale crash (1882)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 15 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Off the chart: 1870 (3.9 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 90% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 2 a year ago

Median 5.9 of 100 · usual range 5.7 of 100 to 13 of 100

The year before past crises: median 6.1 of 100, from 5.9 of 100 before the May 1968 and devaluation to 13 of 100 before the World War I (1914)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 13 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 77% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 0 points · usual range -0.2 points to +2.1 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -0.7 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +2 points before the Oil shock (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 15 crises: Oil shock (1974)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1855 (-13.9 points), 1869 (+3.2 points), 1870 (+12.2 points), 1871 (+13.9 points), 1872 (+15.7 points), 1873 (+15.7 points), 1874 (+12.5 points), 1875 (+4.4 points), 1876 (+2.7 points), 1900 (+2.1 points), 1901 (+2.1 points), 1902 (+2.1 points), 1903 (+2.1 points), 1904 (+2.1 points), 1940 (-40.4 points), 1941 (-41 points), 1942 (-41 points), 1943 (-41.2 points), 1944 (-41.7 points), 1945 (+40.7 points), 1946 (+43.4 points), 1947 (+43.7 points), 1948 (+43.7 points), 1949 (+43.8 points), 1950 (+2.4 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 78% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (78)

Median 0 points · usual range -2.9 points to +15.5 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -2.9 points before the Franc crisis of 1957-58 to +14.4 points before the Franc crisis (1924)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 15 crises: Union Générale crash (1882), Comptoir d’Escompte crisis (1889), World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Popular Front devaluations (1936), May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1855 (-67.7 points), 1870 (+35.4 points), 1871 (+38.5 points), 1872 (+42.6 points), 1873 (+42.6 points), 1874 (+42.6 points), 1914 (-18.3 points), 1915 (-18.3 points), 1916 (-18.3 points), 1917 (-18.3 points), 1940 (-62.7 points), 1941 (-61.5 points), 1942 (-61.5 points), 1943 (-61.5 points), 1944 (-55.1 points), 1945 (+26.9 points), 1946 (+62.2 points), 1947 (+63.2 points), 1948 (+63.2 points), 1949 (+63.2 points), 1950 (+36 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 70% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (30)

Median 0.39 of 4 · usual range 0.08 of 4 to 1.26 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.39 of 4, from 0.08 of 4 before the May 1968 and devaluation to 0.75 of 4 before the World War II (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 15 crises: May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Before this country's past crises (12), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1870 (2.24 of 4), 1871 (2.24 of 4), 1940 (2.23 of 4), 1941 (2.23 of 4), 1942 (2.23 of 4), 1943 (2.23 of 4), 1944 (2.1 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Franc crisis of 1957-58 to 0 before the Franc crisis of 1957-58

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Lower than 57% of years since 1989

→Danger about the same as a year ago (43)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 5.3

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the ERM crisis and recession (1992) to 0 before the ERM crisis and recession (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 92% of years since 1987

↓Danger down from 97 a year ago

Median 123 · usual range 71 to 311

The year before past crises: median 162, from 112 before the ERM crisis and recession (1992) to 256 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 29% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1987–2026-07

Higher than 50% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 56 a year ago

Median 0.6 % of articles · usual range 0.34 % of articles to 1.56 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.65 % of articles, from 0.31 % of articles before the Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011) to 1.62 % of articles before the World War II (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1930), Franc devaluations (1981), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1914 (2.96 % of articles), 1915 (3.79 % of articles), 1916 (3.26 % of articles), 1917 (4.09 % of articles), 1918 (6.62 % of articles), 1919 (2.87 % of articles), 1939 (3.07 % of articles), 1940 (2.93 % of articles), 1944 (2.95 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 81% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 13 a year ago

Median 21.4% · usual range 18.2% to 26.5%

The year before past crises: median 19.8%, from 19.5% before the ERM crisis and recession (1992) to 23.6% before the Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 22.2 per 100 workers · usual range 19.6 per 100 workers to 32.6 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 21.9 per 100 workers, from 20 per 100 workers before the May 1968 and devaluation to 32.9 per 100 workers before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 5.92%, from -12.3% before the ERM crisis and recession (1992) to 66.8% before the Franc devaluations (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 2.81%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 4.65% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 17.9, from 15.4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 22.6 before the Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median 13.2%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 25.3% before the Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 13.5%, from -3.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 127, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 82.8, from 40.5 before the Great Depression (1930) to 115 before the ERM crisis and recession (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Franc crisis (1924), Great Depression (1930), Popular Front devaluations (1936), World War II (1939), Franc crisis of 1957-58, May 1968 and devaluation, Oil shock (1974), Franc devaluations (1981), ERM crisis and recession (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro debt crisis and Dexia (2011), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09