Euro area

Lower than 79% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 66 a year ago

Median 2.69% · usual range -1.07% to 5.98%

The year before past crises: median 2.39%, from -3.68% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 6.36% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (MNA) 2021–2026-01

Higher than 50% of years since 1921

↑Danger up from 47 a year ago

Median 7.46% · usual range 1.86% to 13.7%

The year before past crises: median 8.52%, from 2.86% before the Oil shock (1973) to 11.6% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 10 crises: European banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1921–2020 · ECB (LFSI) 2021–2026-08

Higher than 60% of years since 1931

↑Danger up from 55 a year ago

Median -0.07 pp · usual range -1.47 pp to +1.39 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.04 pp, from -1.75 pp before the Dot-com bust (2000) to +3.69 pp before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: World War II (1939), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1932 (+6.01 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1921–2020 · ECB (LFSI) 2021–2026-08

Lower than 68% of years since 1992

↑Danger up from 50 a year ago

Median 1.35% · usual range -2.74% to 4.53%

The year before past crises: median 1.7%, from -15% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 8.88% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m) 1991–2026-07

Higher than 81% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 55 a year ago

Median 17.8% of GDP · usual range 7.11% of GDP to 24.1% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 22.3% of GDP, from 6.36% of GDP before the Panic of 1873 to 26.7% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 57% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 61 a year ago

Median 2.48% · usual range -3.22% to 8.27%

The year before past crises: median 2.85%, from -4.99% before the Great Depression (1929) to 16.6% before the Panic of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), Oil shock (1973), ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2021–2025

Lower than 77% of years since 1971

↓Danger down from 88 a year ago

Median 5.21% · usual range 0.6% to 9.7%

The year before past crises: median 6.07%, from -12.1% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 11.5% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1971–2025

Higher than 61% of years since 1980

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median -5.7 · usual range -19.1 to 5.45

The year before past crises: median -5.06, from -26.1 before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 9.58 before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 23% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Eurostat (ei_bsin_m_r2) 1980–2026-09

Higher than 64% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 15 a year ago

Median 2.41% · usual range -2.15% to 9.14%

The year before past crises: median 2.51%, from -0.29% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 7.79% before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, Great Depression (1929), World War II (1939), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (45.3%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CP0000EZ19M086NEST 2021–2026-08

Higher than 87% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 3 a year ago

Median -0.05 pp · usual range -0.93 pp to +0.78 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.12 pp, from -3.04 pp before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to +1.04 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1978 (+4.06 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (FM) 2021–2026-09

Higher than 88% of years since 2001

↑Danger up from 60 a year ago

Median 1.44% · usual range 0.89% to 2.68%

The year before past crises: median 1.43%, from 1.05% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 1.9% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Sources: Eurostat (prc_hicp_minr) 2000–2026-09

Lower than 85% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 82 a year ago

Median 4.12% · usual range 2.17% to 8.96%

The year before past crises: median 4.11%, from -0.55% before the Energy shock (2022) to 11.9% before the ERM crisis (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1978 (12.2%), 1980 (13%), 1981 (13.6%), 1982 (12.9%), 1983 (12.7%), 1990 (12.3%), 1991 (11.9%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (FM) 2021–2026-09

Lower than 64% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 38 a year ago

Median +1.69 pp · usual range -4.67 pp to +6.69 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.65 pp, from -3.68 pp before the Oil shock (1973) to +7.73 pp before the ERM crisis (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, Great Depression (1929), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (-40.6 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (FM) 2021–2026-09 · FRED CP0000EZ19M086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 70% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 50 a year ago

Median 6.58% · usual range 0.4% to 16.4%

The year before past crises: median 8.59%, from -0.07% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 17.6% before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 12 crises: Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1875–2020 · ECB (BSI) 2021–2026-08

Lower than 93% of years since 1901

↓Danger down from 11 a year ago

Median +4.29 pp of GDP · usual range -8.9 pp of GDP to +20.6 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +5.94 pp of GDP, from -25.5 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +41.6 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 12 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2007 (+41.6 pp of GDP), 2008 (+41.8 pp of GDP), 2009 (+39.7 pp of GDP), 2015 (-32.2 pp of GDP), 2016 (-34.2 pp of GDP), 2017 (-33.2 pp of GDP), 2018 (-31.7 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1896–2020 · FRED QXMPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 70% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (71)

Median 21.8% of GDP · usual range 11.5% of GDP to 64.1% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 48.1% of GDP, from 14.8% of GDP before the Oil shock (1973) to 69.8% of GDP before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1950–2020 · FRED QXMHAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 84% of years since 1909

↑Danger up from 13 a year ago

Median -0.19 pp of GDP · usual range -10.1 pp of GDP to +8.32 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +0.39 pp of GDP, from -23.4 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +18.5 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 12 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1896–2020 · FRED QXMPAM770A 2021–2025

Higher than 79% of years since 1896

→Danger about the same as a year ago (80)

Median 42.5% of GDP · usual range 21.3% of GDP to 106% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 66.7% of GDP, from 27% of GDP before the World War I (1914) to 148% of GDP before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 12 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 73% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1896–2020 · FRED QXMPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 74% of years since 1950

↓Danger down from 29 a year ago

Median 43.4% of GDP · usual range 25.9% of GDP to 60.6% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 44.9% of GDP, from 40% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 78% of GDP before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 8 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1950–2020 · FRED QXMNAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 59% of years since 1900

Median 6.66 % of assets · usual range 4.56 % of assets to 15.6 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 5.75 % of assets, from 4.41 % of assets before the Early 1980s recession to 15 % of assets before the World War II (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 11 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1900–2020

Higher than 62% of years since 1900

Median 89.4% · usual range 67.9% to 116%

The year before past crises: median 100%, from 69.6% before the World War II (1939) to 126% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 11 crises: Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), ERM crisis (1992)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 72% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1900–2020

Higher than 70% of years since 2003

↑Danger up from 22 a year ago

Median 4.9% · usual range -3.44% to 31.4%

The year before past crises: median 5.48%, from 1.12% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 34.3% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Sources: ECB (BLS) 2003–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (89)

Median 64.3% of GDP · usual range 37.7% of GDP to 84.6% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 62.6% of GDP, from 30.2% of GDP before the Oil shock (1973) to 90.6% of GDP before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 65% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (65)

Median -1.74% of GDP · usual range -5.46% of GDP to -0.32% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.85% of GDP, from -6.52% of GDP before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 0.57% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 70% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 63 a year ago

Median -0.45 pp of GDP · usual range -14.8 pp of GDP to +22.4 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median -8.68 pp of GDP, from -13.6 pp of GDP before the Great Depression (1929) to +8.58 pp of GDP before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 12 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Higher than 54% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 47 a year ago

Median +0.2 pp · usual range -8.47 pp to +7.76 pp

The year before past crises: median -1.3 pp, from -8.89 pp before the Energy shock (2022) to +8.04 pp before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), Oil shock (1973), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (-39.8 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (IRS) 2021–2026-09 · FRED CP0000EZ19M086NEST 2021–2025 · ECB (MNA) 2021–2025

Lower than 91% of years since 1973

Median 5.39 % of spending · usual range 2.94 % of spending to 9.33 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 4.52 % of spending, from 2.62 % of spending before the Energy shock (2022) to 9.44 % of spending before the ERM crisis (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 7 crises: Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 22% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1973–2023

Lower than 85% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 8 a year ago

Median 5.1% · usual range 3.78% to 10.6%

The year before past crises: median 4.64%, from 0.05% before the Energy shock (2022) to 11% before the Early 1980s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 13 crises: World War II (1939), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (IRS) 2021–2026-09

Higher than 89% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 81 a year ago

Median -0.04 pp · usual range -1.03 pp to +0.8 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.06 pp, from -1.29 pp before the ERM crisis (1992) to +1.79 pp before the Early 1980s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1873 (+4.39 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (IRS) 2021–2026-09

Higher than 59% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 48 a year ago

Median +1.01 pp · usual range -0.36 pp to +3.05 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.61 pp, from -0.86 pp before the ERM crisis (1992) to +3.18 pp before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Dot-com bust (2000), Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1877 (+8.45 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (IRS) 2021–2026-09 · ECB (FM) 2021–2025

Lower than 64% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 29 a year ago

Median +2.66 pp · usual range -4.11 pp to +8.28 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.66 pp, from -2.53 pp before the Energy shock (2022) to +6.87 pp before the ERM crisis (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 13 crises: World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (-40.8 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (IRS) 2021–2026-09 · FRED CP0000EZ19M086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 78% of years since 1901

↓Danger down from 25 a year ago

Median -1.43% · usual range -16.3% to 23%

The year before past crises: median 8.49%, from -10.3% before the European banking crisis of 1931 to 27.6% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 12 crises: Great Depression (1929), Oil shock (1973), Dot-com bust (2000), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (FM) 2021–2026-09 · FRED CP0000EZ19M086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 80% of years since 1908

↑Danger up from 73 a year ago

Median -3.16% · usual range -39.3% to 56%

The year before past crises: median 13.7%, from -48.8% before the Early 1980s recession to 145% before the Dot-com bust (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 12 crises: World War I (1914), World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (FM) 2021–2026-09 · FRED CP0000EZ19M086NEST 2021–2025

Lower than 74% of years since 1987

↓Danger down from 51 a year ago

Median 12.8% · usual range 7.64% to 22.5%

The year before past crises: median 12.8%, from 7% before the Energy shock (2022) to 21.5% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1900–2020 · ECB (FM) 2021–2026-09

Higher than 71% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 13 a year ago

Median -10.6% · usual range -42.7% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -7.58%, from -42.4% before the Early 1980s recession to 0% before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 12 crises: Great Depression (1929), Oil shock (1973), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (FM) 2021–2026-09 · FRED CP0000EZ19M086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 72% of years since 1975

Median 34.3% of GDP · usual range 8.79% of GDP to 71.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 52.4% of GDP, from 8.58% of GDP before the Early 1980s recession to 80% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1975–2018

Higher than 51% of years since 1921

↓Danger down from 3 a year ago

Median 2.57% · usual range -8.44% to 9.42%

The year before past crises: median 2.14%, from -9% before the Early 1980s recession to 6.83% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 10 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1920–2020 · FRED QXMR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Lower than 74% of years since 1937

→Danger about the same as a year ago (26)

Median 16.1% · usual range -20.1% to 34%

The year before past crises: median 19.3%, from -28.4% before the World War II (1939) to 43.8% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 9 crises: World War II (1939)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 74% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1920–2020 · FRED QXMR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Higher than 89% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 5 a year ago

Median -0.54% of GDP · usual range -3.28% of GDP to 1.85% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.99% of GDP, from -5.29% of GDP before the World War I (1914) to 2.76% of GDP before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 13 crises: Oil shock (1973), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2021–2025

Higher than 67% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 19 a year ago

Median 0.07% · usual range -10.4% to 12%

The year before past crises: median 0.07%, from -10.5% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 16.1% before the Dot-com bust (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1920 (56.9%), 1946 (34.4%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (EXR) 2021–2026-09

Higher than 67% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 83 a year ago

Median -0.97% · usual range -8.2% to 7.64%

The year before past crises: median 3.65%, from -3.63% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 8.97% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Sources: FRED RBXMBIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 66% of years since 1975

↓Danger down from 54 a year ago

Median 2.7 months of imports · usual range 1.88 months of imports to 4.95 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 2.29 months of imports, from 1.57 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 6.54 months of imports before the Early 1980s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1975–2025

Higher than 59% of years since 1971

↓Danger down from 50 a year ago

Median 0.98% of GDP · usual range 0.38% of GDP to 5.6% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 3.27% of GDP, from 0.39% of GDP before the Early 1980s recession to 9.99% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 8 crises: Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1971–2025

Higher than 65% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 78 a year ago

Median 2.14 of 4 · usual range 1.23 of 4 to 3.18 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.07 of 4, from 1.05 of 4 before the ERM crisis (1992) to 3.36 of 4 before the World War II (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 12 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 96% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 98 a year ago

Median 2.18 of 4 · usual range 1.59 of 4 to 2.61 of 4

The year before past crises: median 2.34 of 4, from 1.98 of 4 before the Dot-com bust (2000) to 2.86 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 52% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (47)

Median 1.38 of 4 · usual range 0.85 of 4 to 2.25 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.47 of 4, from 0.88 of 4 before the ERM crisis (1992) to 2.24 of 4 before the European banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 12 crises: ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 53% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (53)

Median 1.27 of 4 · usual range 0.62 of 4 to 1.94 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.18 of 4, from 0.59 of 4 before the ERM crisis (1992) to 2.02 of 4 before the European banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 13 crises: World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 79% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (21)

Median 0.25 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.38 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.26 of 4, from 0.14 of 4 before the World War I (1914) to 0.47 of 4 before the Panic of 1873

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 13 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 92% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (93)

Median +0.65 points · usual range -3.33 points to +8.39 points

The year before past crises: median +0.86 points, from -3.47 points before the World War II (1939) to +9.97 points before the Early 1980s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1920 (+13.4 points), 1921 (+14.4 points), 1922 (+14 points), 1923 (+10.8 points), 1933 (-9.28 points), 1934 (-10.7 points), 1935 (-10.2 points), 1936 (-11 points), 1937 (-14.7 points), 1940 (-16.7 points), 1941 (-17.9 points), 1942 (-16.7 points), 1943 (-16.6 points), 1944 (-13.6 points), 1946 (+23.6 points), 1947 (+39.8 points), 1948 (+41 points), 1949 (+49.1 points), 1950 (+40.8 points), 1951 (+27.7 points), 1952 (+11 points), 1953 (+10.2 points), 1978 (+8.82 points), 1979 (+9.97 points), 1980 (+10.5 points), 1981 (+10.3 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1987

→Danger about the same as a year ago (97)

Median 122 · usual range 76.4 to 277

The year before past crises: median 105, from 81.2 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 232 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 20% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED EUEPUINDXM 1987–2026-09

Lower than 91% of years since 1985

↑Danger up from 81 a year ago

Median -8.87 · usual range -16.1 to -3.63

The year before past crises: median -6.35, from -15.3 before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to -3.25 before the Dot-com bust (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 23% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Eurostat (ei_bsco_m) 1985–2026-09

Lower than 58% of years since 1921

↑Danger up from 32 a year ago

Median 11.3% · usual range 4.04% to 17.7%

The year before past crises: median 11.3%, from 3.73% before the European banking crisis of 1931 to 15% before the ERM crisis (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 10 crises: European banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ECB (LFSI) 2021–2026-08 · FRED CP0000EZ19M086NEST 2021–2025

Higher than 65% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (65)

Median 11% · usual range 8.45% to 19.7%

The year before past crises: median 11.3%, from 8.87% before the ERM crisis (1992) to 17.2% before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 76% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Lower than 85% of years since 1850

Median 0.9 of 4 · usual range 0.66 of 4 to 1.35 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.94 of 4, from 0.59 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 1.67 of 4 before the World War II (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 13 crises: Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 88% of years since 1870

Median 19.6% of GDP · usual range 8.17% of GDP to 27.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 23.6% of GDP, from 7.51% of GDP before the Panic of 1873 to 28.6% of GDP before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · Eurostat (gov_10a_main) 2021–2025

Lower than 60% of years since 1850

Median 0.69 of 4 · usual range 0.2 of 4 to 1.48 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.52 of 4, from 0.16 of 4 before the ERM crisis (1992) to 1.39 of 4 before the European banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 13 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 80% of years since 1850

Median 0.47 of 4 · usual range 0.14 of 4 to 1.12 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.52 of 4, from 0.11 of 4 before the ERM crisis (1992) to 1.33 of 4 before the European banking crisis of 1931

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 13 crises: World War I (1914), World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 88% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (11)

Median 17.1 of 100 · usual range 6.53 of 100 to 20.5 of 100

The year before past crises: median 8.55 of 100, from 4.89 of 100 before the Energy shock (2022) to 23.2 of 100 before the World War II (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 13 crises: Early 1980s recession, Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 86% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (85)

Median +0.17 points · usual range -2.15 points to +4.52 points

The year before past crises: median +0.15 points, from -7.98 points before the World War II (1939) to +6.11 points before the Early 1980s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), European banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1870 (+4.79 points), 1871 (+6.42 points), 1872 (+5.92 points), 1873 (+5.92 points), 1874 (+4.52 points), 1924 (-4.61 points), 1925 (-6.81 points), 1926 (-7.63 points), 1927 (-7.51 points), 1928 (-3.93 points), 1933 (-11 points), 1934 (-17.9 points), 1935 (-17.8 points), 1936 (-20.6 points), 1937 (-21.3 points), 1938 (-7.98 points), 1940 (-12.6 points), 1941 (-12.4 points), 1942 (-11.5 points), 1943 (-11.5 points), 1944 (-8.15 points), 1945 (+29.9 points), 1946 (+36.2 points), 1947 (+37.1 points), 1948 (+37.5 points), 1949 (+39 points), 1950 (+12.4 points), 1951 (+6.26 points), 1952 (+5.31 points), 1953 (+4.92 points), 1977 (+4.52 points), 1978 (+6.53 points), 1979 (+6.11 points), 1980 (+5.25 points), 1981 (+4.76 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 86% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (85)

Median +0.31 points · usual range -9.22 points to +12.4 points

The year before past crises: median +0.15 points, from -12.3 points before the World War II (1939) to +14.3 points before the Panic of 1873

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: Panic of 1873, World War I (1914), European banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1855 (-17.3 points), 1862 (+16.1 points), 1863 (+15.8 points), 1864 (+15.5 points), 1865 (+15 points), 1872 (+14.3 points), 1920 (+17.5 points), 1921 (+17.5 points), 1925 (-14.7 points), 1926 (-15.4 points), 1927 (-12.3 points), 1934 (-16 points), 1935 (-16.1 points), 1936 (-23.4 points), 1937 (-28.3 points), 1938 (-12.3 points), 1940 (-28.7 points), 1941 (-28.7 points), 1942 (-25.5 points), 1943 (-24.7 points), 1944 (-18.8 points), 1945 (+21.5 points), 1946 (+48.1 points), 1947 (+52 points), 1948 (+51.9 points), 1949 (+58.1 points), 1950 (+38 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 74% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (26)

Median 1.09 of 4 · usual range 0.1 of 4 to 1.75 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.27 of 4, from 0.09 of 4 before the ERM crisis (1992) to 2.23 of 4 before the World War II (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 51% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (49)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil shock (1973) to 0 before the Oil shock (1973)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Higher than 52% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 58 a year ago

Median 0.32 % of articles · usual range 0.19 % of articles to 1.42 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.26 % of articles, from 0.17 % of articles before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 1.19 % of articles before the World War II (1939)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 12 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 19% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1914 (2.27 % of articles), 1915 (3.25 % of articles), 1916 (2.72 % of articles), 1917 (3.54 % of articles), 1918 (4.62 % of articles), 1919 (1.78 % of articles), 1939 (2.24 % of articles), 1940 (2.48 % of articles), 1941 (2.29 % of articles), 1942 (2.03 % of articles), 1943 (2.77 % of articles), 1944 (3.33 % of articles), 1945 (1.66 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2025

Lower than 96% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 7 a year ago

Median 19.9% · usual range 16.8% to 25.5%

The year before past crises: median 19%, from 16.3% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 22.1% before the Dot-com bust (2000)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 17% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 21.6 per 100 workers · usual range 17.5 per 100 workers to 32.2 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 25.3 per 100 workers, from 19.2 per 100 workers before the Oil shock (1973) to 33.4 per 100 workers before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 4.74%, from -38% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 73.3% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 0.75%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 5.76% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 19.1, from 15.4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 31.7 before the Euro area debt crisis (2010)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 83% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median 1.24%, from -28.6% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 52.6% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median -3.06%, from -15.9% before the Euro area debt crisis (2010) to 27% before the Energy shock (2022)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Dot-com bust (2000), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 113, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 78% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 69.8, from 37.2 before the Great Depression (1929) to 115 before the ERM crisis (1992)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), European banking crisis of 1931, World War II (1939), Oil shock (1973), Early 1980s recession, ERM crisis (1992), Dot-com bust (2000), Global financial crisis (2008), Euro area debt crisis (2010), COVID-19 recession (2020), Energy shock (2022)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 23% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09