Built entirely by AI, analyses included. Not financial advice.
Country Outlook
Latest data Sep 2026 · computed 14 Oct 2026
History: Maddison Project GDP from 1929 (with gaps before 1950), World Bank from 1960, IMF from 1980
Data, scores and the AI report are updated once a month.
40%
estimated chance that an economic crisis starts within 2 years
40% of all its past years were followed by one
4 of the 9 past years that scored at least this high were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
54/100
Higher than 28% of years since 2001
Measures that published studies found often high before past crises: credit and debt growth, house and stock prices against their trend, the yield curve, interest-rate rises and external deficits. Low market volatility counts toward it.
Building up mostPrivate debt service
100
Public debt
98
Private credit
98
60/100
Higher than 54% of years since 1961
How far today's readings are from China's usual levels, across 58 indicators.
Public finances
93
Stock market
85
Private credit
75
Economy
72
Global environment
67
External
28
Inflation and policy
28
Housing
3
The build-up measures, each against China's own history. Each area starts with a fixed weight, adjusted by how it read before China's past crises.
Before 2 of the 2 economic crises that can be tested, the score was in the top quarter of the country's history (75th percentile or higher) in the 2 years before.
Of the 3 years it was that high outside a crisis, 2 (67%) were followed by a crisis within 2 years.
Ranking quality 61/100, where 50 is what chance would give (61 with every area weighted the same).
For comparison, the stress score ranked them 61/100.
| Crisis | Percentile before | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Property crisis (2021) | 83 | High 2 years before |
| COVID-19 shock (2020) | 82 | High 2 years before |
How much today's readings look like the year before each crisis started.
Property crisis (2021)
26%
Cultural Revolution slump (1967)
26%
COVID-19 shock (2020)
25%
Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
20%
War with Japan and civil war (1937)
19%
1 of the 10 most similar past years were followed by a crisis within two years (COVID-19 shock (2020)), against 15% of all years.
2021
41%
1946
32%
1974
32%
2018 → COVID-19 shock began 2020
31%
1971
31%
2017
31%
1938
29%
1975
29%
1969
27%
1972
27%
64 indicators measured, 18 not available for China.
Change in real output from a year earlier.
5%
2025
Lower than 64% of years since 1930
Danger about the same as a year ago (64)
Median 6.55% · usual range -1.53% to 11.2%
The year before past crises: median 6%, from 0.6% before the Great Leap Forward famine (1959) to 9.15% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 11 crises: War with Japan and civil war (1937), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020)
Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: Maddison Project 1850–2022 · IMF World Economic Outlook (NGDP_RPCH) 2023–2025
Share of the labour force out of work.
4.62%
2025
Higher than 81% of years since 1991
Danger up from 74 a year ago
Median 4.52% · usual range 2.94% to 4.66%
The year before past crises: median 4.46%, from 2.37% before the Overheating and devaluation (1993) to 5% before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 shock (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025
One-year change in the unemployment rate.
+0.03 pp
2025
Higher than 52% of years since 1992
Danger up from 27 a year ago
Median +0.02 pp · usual range -0.14 pp to +0.4 pp
The year before past crises: median +0.07 pp, from -0.08 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +0.44 pp before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Overheating and devaluation (1993), Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025
Gross investment relative to GDP. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
40.5% of GDP
2024
Higher than 72% of years since 1960
Danger down from 46 a year ago
Median 37.3% of GDP · usual range 25.8% of GDP to 43.4% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 39.8% of GDP, from 30.4% of GDP before the Cultural Revolution slump (1967) to 45.3% of GDP before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1960–2024
Household spending after inflation, against a year earlier.
5.02%
2024
Lower than 91% of years since 1996
Danger up from 33 a year ago
Median 9.22% · usual range 5.55% to 12%
The year before past crises: median 6.06%, from -2.71% before the Property crisis (2021) to 13.9% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 1995–2024
Consumer prices against a year earlier. Both high inflation and deflation count as the dangerous side.
0.06%
2025
Lower than 88% of years since 1987
Danger up from 72 a year ago
Median 2.42% · usual range -0.1% to 15.1%
The year before past crises: median 2.9%, from 1.92% before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015) to 7.23% before the Inflation crisis of 1988-89
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1994 (24.3%)
Sources: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1986–2025
One-year change in the short-term interest rate.
-0.24 pp
Jul 2026
Higher than 52% of years since 1999
Danger up from 44 a year ago
Median -0.32 pp · usual range -1.07 pp to +0.9 pp
The year before past crises: median -0.32 pp, from -0.8 pp before the COVID-19 shock (2020) to -0.17 pp before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED IR3TIB01CNM156N 1998–2026-07
Three-month money-market rate, or the closest short-term rate available. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
1.54%
Jul 2026
Lower than 100% of years since 1998
Danger up from 93 a year ago
Median 2.93% · usual range 2.03% to 4.88%
The year before past crises: median 3.38%, from 2.91% before the Property crisis (2021) to 4.8% before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED IR3TIB01CNM156N 1998–2026-07
Short-term interest rate minus inflation. Both very high and very low count as the dangerous side.
+1.48 pp
Jul 2026
Lower than 63% of years since 1998
Danger up from 11 a year ago
Median +1.8 pp · usual range -0.73 pp to +3.02 pp
The year before past crises: median +0.42 pp, from -1.31 pp before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +2.88 pp before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED IR3TIB01CNM156N 1998–2026-07 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1986–2025
Growth of money and bank deposits over a year.
6.81%
2024
Lower than 97% of years since 1978
Danger up from 72 a year ago
Median 17.3% · usual range 9% to 31.1%
The year before past crises: median 16.7%, from 8.88% before the COVID-19 shock (2020) to 30.8% before the Overheating and devaluation (1993)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1978–2024
Five-year change in private credit relative to GDP.
+8.23 pp of GDP
Q4 2025
Lower than 73% of years since 1982
Danger down from 50 a year ago
Median +17.6 pp of GDP · usual range +0.49 pp of GDP to +29.6 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +15.3 pp of GDP, from -11.8 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +29.5 pp of GDP before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Overheating and devaluation (1993), Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1977–2024 · FRED QCNPAM770A 2025–2025-10
Debt of households, mostly mortgages, relative to GDP.
58% of GDP
Q4 2025
Higher than 70% of years since 2006
Danger down from 80 a year ago
Median 39.2% of GDP · usual range 18.6% of GDP to 60.1% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 43.7% of GDP, from 18.6% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 58.8% of GDP before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED QCNHAM770A 2006–2025-10
Private credit relative to GDP against its long-run trend (one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter, as the BIS computes it).
+5.13 pp of GDP
2025
Higher than 66% of years since 1986
Danger down from 86 a year ago
Median +3.94 pp of GDP · usual range -9.39 pp of GDP to +8.46 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +4.64 pp of GDP, from -14.1 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +16.9 pp of GDP before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 7 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1977–2024 · FRED QCNPAM770A 2025–2025
Loans to households and firms relative to GDP (bank loans in the history, total credit rescaled to it after).
197% of GDP
Q4 2025
Higher than 98% of years since 1977
Danger up from 96 a year ago
Median 108% of GDP · usual range 56.5% of GDP to 175% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 104% of GDP, from 77.9% of GDP before the Inflation crisis of 1988-89 to 179% of GDP before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1977–2024 · FRED QCNPAM770A 2025–2025-10
Debt of non-financial companies relative to GDP.
143% of GDP
Q4 2025
Higher than 90% of years since 2006
Danger up from 75 a year ago
Median 127% of GDP · usual range 98.6% of GDP to 142% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 131% of GDP, from 91.2% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 135% of GDP before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED QCNNAM770A 2006–2025-10
Banks’ own capital relative to their assets.
7.75 % of assets
2021
Higher than 94% of years since 2014
Median 7.23 % of assets · usual range 6.87 % of assets to 7.63 % of assets
The year before past crises: median 7.54 % of assets, from 6.86 % of assets before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015) to 7.57 % of assets before the COVID-19 shock (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2014–2021
Non-performing loans as a share of all bank loans.
1.5 % of loans
2024
Lower than 63% of years since 2010
Danger down from 43 a year ago
Median 1.63 % of loans · usual range 0.98 % of loans to 1.84 % of loans
The year before past crises: median 1.84 % of loans, from 1.25 % of loans before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015) to 1.86 % of loans before the COVID-19 shock (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2010–2024
Interest and principal paid by households and firms, relative to their income (BIS).
19.1 % of income
Q1 2026
Higher than 100% of years since 1999
Danger about the same as a year ago (100)
Median 15.6 % of income · usual range 11.2 % of income to 18.1 % of income
The year before past crises: median 17.4 % of income, from 12.4 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 17.9 % of income before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01
General government gross debt.
98.6% of GDP
2025
Higher than 98% of years since 1995
Danger up from 95 a year ago
Median 33.1% of GDP · usual range 21.4% of GDP to 77.3% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 39.4% of GDP, from 20.4% of GDP before the Bad-loan crisis (1998) to 70.6% of GDP before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1995–2025
Government revenue minus spending; negative is a deficit.
-7.9% of GDP
2025
Lower than 97% of years since 1982
Danger up from 92 a year ago
Median -1.1% of GDP · usual range -6.49% of GDP to 0% of GDP
The year before past crises: median -0.7% of GDP, from -9.6% of GDP before the Property crisis (2021) to 0.1% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 7 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1982–2025
Five-year change in public debt relative to GDP.
+28 pp of GDP
2025
Higher than 87% of years since 2000
Danger down from 98 a year ago
Median +7.8 pp of GDP · usual range +2.1 pp of GDP to +28.2 pp of GDP
The year before past crises: median +13 pp of GDP, from +3.3 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +29.7 pp of GDP before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1995–2025
Change in the stock market after inflation.
5.32%
Aug 2026
Higher than 73% of years since 2000
Danger up from 15 a year ago
Median -2.93% · usual range -19.9% to 36.8%
The year before past crises: median 2%, from -3.85% before the COVID-19 shock (2020) to 149% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2007 (149%)
Sources: FRED SPASTT01CNM661N 1999–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1986–2025
Real stock prices against their average of the previous ten years.
18%
Aug 2026
Higher than 74% of years since 2007
Danger up from 68 a year ago
Median -1.08% · usual range -17.1% to 31.4%
The year before past crises: median -4.11%, from -20.7% before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015) to 143% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 2007 (143%)
Sources: FRED SPASTT01CNM661N 1999–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1986–2025
Annualized variation of the monthly stock index (monthly data only).
8.59%
Aug 2026
Lower than 93% of years since 1999
Danger down from 56 a year ago
Median 16.8% · usual range 9.44% to 27.1%
The year before past crises: median 19.2%, from 13.7% before the Property crisis (2021) to 32% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED SPASTT01CNM661N 1999–2026-08
Real stock prices below their highest level of the previous five years.
-5.46%
Aug 2026
Higher than 74% of years since 1999
Danger up from 11 a year ago
Median -23.6% · usual range -40.7% to 0%
The year before past crises: median -25.9%, from -30.4% before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015) to 0% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED SPASTT01CNM661N 1999–2026-08 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1986–2025
Value of listed companies relative to GDP (World Bank).
79.5% of GDP
2025
Higher than 89% of years since 2003
Danger up from 59 a year ago
Median 59.9% of GDP · usual range 32% of GDP to 79.5% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 70.4% of GDP, from 56.3% of GDP before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015) to 124% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 4 crises: Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 2003–2025
Change in house prices after inflation. Both fast rises and falls count as the dangerous side.
-7.07%
Q1 2026
Lower than 95% of years since 2007
Danger about the same as a year ago (90)
Median 0.52% · usual range -5.47% to 4.57%
The year before past crises: median 1.2%, from -0.11% before the Property crisis (2021) to 2.86% before the COVID-19 shock (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED QCNR628BIS 2006–2026-01
Real house prices against their average of the previous ten years.
-17.7%
Q1 2026
Lower than 100% of years since 2014
Danger down from 8 a year ago
Median 4.09% · usual range -7.75% to 10.3%
The year before past crises: median 9.26%, from 3.78% before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015) to 11.1% before the COVID-19 shock (2020)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 3 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED QCNR628BIS 2006–2026-01
Balance of trade, income and transfers with the rest of the world; negative is a deficit.
3.77% of GDP
2025
Higher than 83% of years since 1982
Danger down from 38 a year ago
Median 1.8% of GDP · usual range -0.82% of GDP to 4.43% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 1.49% of GDP, from 0.11% of GDP before the Inflation crisis of 1988-89 to 9.8% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 1982–2025
Change in the price of a US dollar in local currency: positive means the currency weakened.
-6.08%
Aug 2026
Lower than 91% of years since 1958
Danger down from 69 a year ago
Median 0% · usual range -5.21% to 11.1%
The year before past crises: median 0%, from -4.58% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 7.8% before the Inflation crisis of 1988-89
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 9 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1985 (26.6%), 1990 (27%), 1994 (49.6%)
Sources: FRED CCUSMA02CNM618N 1957–2026-08
Real effective exchange rate (BIS) against its 10-year average.
-5.08%
Jul 2026
Lower than 83% of years since 2002
Danger up from 0 a year ago
Median 7.12% · usual range -6.35% to 21.3%
The year before past crises: median 6.63%, from -2.71% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 22.2% before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED RBCNBIS 1994–2026-07
Central bank reserves measured in months of imports.
11.9 months of imports
2025
Lower than 51% of years since 1982
Danger down from 65 a year ago
Median 12.3 months of imports · usual range 5.28 months of imports to 19.1 months of imports
The year before past crises: median 14.5 months of imports, from 3.77 months of imports before the Overheating and devaluation (1993) to 19 months of imports before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1982–2025
Net inflows of foreign direct investment relative to GDP.
0.41% of GDP
2025
Lower than 84% of years since 1979
Danger down from 90 a year ago
Median 2.15% of GDP · usual range 0.26% of GDP to 4.55% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 2.51% of GDP, from 0.85% of GDP before the Inflation crisis of 1988-89 to 4.7% of GDP before the Bad-loan crisis (1998)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1979–2025
How hostile supporters of opposing political camps are to each other (V-Dem experts; 0 = friendly, 4 = generally hostile).
2.21 of 4
2025
Lower than 65% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (35)
Median 2.95 of 4 · usual range 1.47 of 4 to 3.83 of 4
The year before past crises: median 1.84 of 4, from 1.38 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 3.89 of 4 before the Cultural Revolution slump (1967)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 12 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How frequent and large demonstrations, strikes and sit-ins were (V-Dem; 0 = virtually none, 4 = many large-scale).
2.05 of 4
2025
Lower than 87% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (13)
Median 2.86 of 4 · usual range 2.04 of 4 to 3.83 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.85 of 4, from 1.81 of 4 before the Great Leap Forward famine (1959) to 3.97 of 4 before the Cultural Revolution slump (1967)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 12 crises: Great Leap Forward famine (1959)
Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
How often non-state actors used violence for political ends (V-Dem; 0 = not at all, 4 = often).
1.34 of 4
2025
Higher than 50% of years since 1900
Danger about the same as a year ago (50)
Median 1.34 of 4 · usual range 0.8 of 4 to 3.64 of 4
The year before past crises: median 1.13 of 4, from 0.8 of 4 before the Overheating and devaluation (1993) to 3.64 of 4 before the Silver crisis (1935)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 12 crises: Great Leap Forward famine (1959), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025
Strength of movements that want to change the political system fundamentally (V-Dem; 0 = practically none, 4 = very strong).
0.16 of 4
2025
Lower than 99% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (1)
Median 1.5 of 4 · usual range 0.25 of 4 to 3.63 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.54 of 4, from 0.18 of 4 before the Property crisis (2021) to 3.63 of 4 before the Warlord-era debt default (1919)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 13 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 33% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them separatist or autonomist (V-Dem).
0 of 4
2025
Lower than 93% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (7)
Median 0.15 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 1.1 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0.11 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Silver crisis (1935) to 0.75 of 4 before the Shanghai financial crisis of 1883
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 13 crises: Silver crisis (1935), War with Japan and civil war (1937)
Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 46% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem liberal democracy index (0-100); negative means it fell.
-0.3 points
2025
Lower than 83% of years since 1855
Danger down from 91 a year ago
Median 0 points · usual range -1 points to +0.9 points
The year before past crises: median -0.1 points, from -1.6 points before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +0.8 points before the Great Leap Forward famine (1959)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 13 crises: Shanghai financial crisis of 1883, Warlord-era debt default (1919), Silver crisis (1935), War with Japan and civil war (1937), Great Leap Forward famine (1959), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998)
Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1912 (+3.6 points), 1913 (+4.4 points), 1914 (+2.7 points), 1915 (+2.6 points), 1916 (+3.3 points), 1919 (+2.9 points), 1920 (+2.4 points), 1924 (-3 points), 1925 (-2.5 points), 1928 (-1.4 points), 1948 (+3.9 points), 1950 (-2.2 points), 1951 (-2 points), 1952 (-3 points), 1953 (-6.1 points), 1954 (-1.9 points), 1979 (+2.4 points), 1980 (+3 points), 1981 (+3.1 points), 1982 (+3 points), 1983 (+2.4 points), 2006 (-1.4 points), 2007 (-1.6 points), 2008 (-1.7 points), 2009 (-1.6 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
How often "uncertainty" appears in country reports (World Uncertainty Index; Economic Policy Uncertainty for the euro area).
0.21
Q2 2026
Higher than 88% of years since 1953
Danger up from 78 a year ago
Median 0.07 · usual range 0 to 0.21
The year before past crises: median 0.05, from 0 before the Great Leap Forward famine (1959) to 0.35 before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 9 crises: Great Leap Forward famine (1959), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED WUICHN 1953–2026-04
How households feel about their finances and the economy (national surveys, via the OECD and Eurostat).
89.2
Jul 2026
Lower than 92% of years since 1990
Danger about the same as a year ago (92)
Median 109 · usual range 98.1 to 120
The year before past crises: median 114, from 104 before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015) to 125 before the COVID-19 shock (2020)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED CSCICP02CNM460S 1990–2026-07
Unemployment rate plus inflation.
4.67%
2025
Lower than 81% of years since 1991
Danger down from 21 a year ago
Median 6.38% · usual range 3.76% to 11.1%
The year before past crises: median 7.44%, from 6.02% before the Bad-loan crisis (1998) to 9.17% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1994 (27.2%), 1995 (19.8%)
Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) 1991–2025 · World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL) 1986–2025
Share of national income before taxes going to the richest 1% (World Inequality Database, with its estimates for gaps).
15.8%
2024
Higher than 85% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (85)
Median 13.3% · usual range 6.78% to 17.5%
The year before past crises: median 13.8%, from 8.04% before the Inflation crisis of 1988-89 to 15.6% before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 7 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024
How much of the economy the state owns or directly controls (V-Dem; 0 = very little, 4 = virtually all).
2.52 of 4
2025
Higher than 78% of years since 1850
Median 1.24 of 4 · usual range 0.71 of 4 to 3.94 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.37 of 4, from 1.14 of 4 before the Warlord-era debt default (1919) to 3.94 of 4 before the Great Leap Forward famine (1959)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 13 crises: Shanghai financial crisis of 1883, Warlord-era debt default (1919), Silver crisis (1935), War with Japan and civil war (1937), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Size of the state: government spending relative to GDP. The long-run series cover central government only, so the level is lower than the familiar general-government figure.
33% of GDP
2024
Higher than 94% of years since 1982
Median 23.4% of GDP · usual range 12.8% of GDP to 32.6% of GDP
The year before past crises: median 23.4% of GDP, from 11.5% of GDP before the Bad-loan crisis (1998) to 34.8% of GDP before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 7 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1982–2024
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them leftist, socialist or communist (V-Dem).
0.08 of 4
2025
Higher than 78% of years since 1850
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 1.8 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Shanghai financial crisis of 1883 to 1.8 of 4 before the Silver crisis (1935)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 13 crises: Shanghai financial crisis of 1883, Great Leap Forward famine (1959), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Strength of anti-system movements times the share of experts calling them rightist or "party of order" (V-Dem).
0 of 4
2025
Lower than 56% of years since 1850
Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.07 of 4
The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Shanghai financial crisis of 1883 to 0.61 of 4 before the Warlord-era debt default (1919)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: Shanghai financial crisis of 1883, Silver crisis (1935), War with Japan and civil war (1937), Great Leap Forward famine (1959), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), Property crisis (2021)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
V-Dem political corruption index (0 = none, 100 = pervasive).
55.4 of 100
2025
Lower than 64% of years since 1850
Danger up from 34 a year ago
Median 75.2 of 100 · usual range 27 of 100 to 93.7 of 100
The year before past crises: median 52.5 of 100, from 24.5 of 100 before the Great Leap Forward famine (1959) to 93.7 of 100 before the Shanghai financial crisis of 1883
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 13 crises: Great Leap Forward famine (1959), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem rule-of-law index (0-100).
-2.9 points
2025
Lower than 90% of years since 1855
Danger down from 96 a year ago
Median 0 points · usual range -2.9 points to +5.7 points
The year before past crises: median -1 points, from -6.8 points before the Global financial crisis (2008) to +2.6 points before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: Shanghai financial crisis of 1883, Warlord-era debt default (1919), Silver crisis (1935), War with Japan and civil war (1937), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 74% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1950 (+15.4 points), 1951 (+15.5 points), 1952 (+15.1 points), 1953 (+15.1 points), 1954 (+9.1 points), 1979 (+9.1 points), 1980 (+8.1 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Five-year change in the V-Dem freedom of expression and alternative information index (0-100).
-1.2 points
2025
Lower than 69% of years since 1855
Danger up from 65 a year ago
Median 0 points · usual range -5.6 points to +6.1 points
The year before past crises: median -1.2 points, from -6.7 points before the COVID-19 shock (2020) to +4 points before the Inflation crisis of 1988-89
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 13 crises: Shanghai financial crisis of 1883, Warlord-era debt default (1919), Silver crisis (1935), War with Japan and civil war (1937), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Bad-loan crisis (1998)
Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Low values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1896 (+12.8 points), 1897 (+12.8 points), 1898 (+11.2 points), 1912 (+11.5 points), 1949 (-15.1 points), 1950 (-31.2 points), 1951 (-29.5 points), 1952 (-29.5 points), 1953 (-29.5 points), 1954 (-16.1 points), 1979 (+16.5 points), 1980 (+18.9 points), 1981 (+19.1 points), 1982 (+18.8 points), 1983 (+14.2 points)
Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
How much the government represses civil society organizations (V-Dem; 0 = none, 4 = severely).
3.51 of 4
2025
Higher than 84% of years since 1850
Danger about the same as a year ago (84)
Median 2.58 of 4 · usual range 1.78 of 4 to 3.82 of 4
The year before past crises: median 2.91 of 4, from 1.58 of 4 before the Warlord-era debt default (1919) to 3.92 of 4 before the Great Leap Forward famine (1959)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 13 crises: Shanghai financial crisis of 1883, Warlord-era debt default (1919), Silver crisis (1935), War with Japan and civil war (1937), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025
Coup attempts in the year (Powell & Thyne, via V-Dem).
0
2024
Higher than 50% of years since 1950
Danger about the same as a year ago (50)
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Great Leap Forward famine (1959) to 0 before the Great Leap Forward famine (1959)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 9 crises: Great Leap Forward famine (1959), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024
Deaths in armed conflicts the country is involved in (Uppsala Conflict Data Program, via Our World in Data).
0
2026
Lower than 57% of years since 1989
Danger about the same as a year ago (43)
Median 0 · usual range 0 to 2.2
The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Overheating and devaluation (1993) to 0 before the Overheating and devaluation (1993)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 81% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026
How often newspapers write about uncertainty over economic policy (Baker, Bloom & Davis).
217
Jul 2026
Higher than 72% of years since 1997
Danger down from 90 a year ago
Median 106 · usual range 49.4 to 325
The year before past crises: median 95.5, from 50.4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 390 before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1997–2026-07
Share of newspaper articles about wars, terrorism and tensions involving the country, since 1900 (Caldara & Iacoviello).
1.03 % of articles
Sep 2026
Higher than 93% of years since 1900
Danger up from 74 a year ago
Median 0.37 % of articles · usual range 0.16 % of articles to 0.92 % of articles
The year before past crises: median 0.36 % of articles, from 0.16 % of articles before the Silver crisis (1935) to 0.92 % of articles before the Cultural Revolution slump (1967)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: Warlord-era debt default (1919), Silver crisis (1935), War with Japan and civil war (1937), Great Leap Forward famine (1959), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09
Unemployment of 15-24-year-olds (ILO estimates via the World Bank).
15.8%
2025
Higher than 99% of years since 1991
Danger up from 93 a year ago
Median 9.67% · usual range 5.74% to 13.9%
The year before past crises: median 9.87%, from 4.43% before the Overheating and devaluation (1993) to 12.7% before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 75% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025
People aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age.
21.4 per 100 workers
2025
Higher than 99% of years since 1960
Median 8.55 per 100 workers · usual range 6.71 per 100 workers to 16.9 per 100 workers
The year before past crises: median 10.4 per 100 workers, from 6.62 per 100 workers before the Cultural Revolution slump (1967) to 18.2 per 100 workers before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Shown for context; not part of the score. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025
Crude oil price (WTI) against a year earlier. Both sharp rises and falls count as the dangerous side.
52.1%
Sep 2026
Higher than 95% of years since 1947
Danger up from 65 a year ago
Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%
The year before past crises: median -4.28%, from -31.2% before the Property crisis (2021) to 27.4% before the Inflation crisis of 1988-89
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 9 crises: Great Leap Forward famine (1959), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020)
Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1974 (168%)
Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09
The US dollar against major currencies, against a year earlier.
-0.68%
Sep 2026
Lower than 77% of years since 1974
Danger about the same as a year ago (23)
Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%
The year before past crises: median 3.1%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 7.15% before the Bad-loan crisis (1998)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 7 crises: Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 75% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09
Expected stock market volatility implied by S&P 500 option prices (VIX).
15.8
Sep 2026
Lower than 67% of years since 1990
Danger about the same as a year ago (33)
Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6
The year before past crises: median 16.5, from 14.2 before the Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015) to 29.1 before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Overheating and devaluation (1993), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09
IMF index of all commodity prices against a year earlier.
16.6%
Jul 2026
Higher than 70% of years since 1993
Danger up from 9 a year ago
Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%
The year before past crises: median -6.43%, from -9.54% before the Property crisis (2021) to 13.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
Both extremes are dangerous. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07
IMF food price index against a year earlier.
4.78%
Jul 2026
Higher than 64% of years since 1993
Danger up from 27 a year ago
Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%
The year before past crises: median -1.54%, from -8.71% before the Bad-loan crisis (1998) to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Bad-loan crisis (1998), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index (GDP-weighted, Baker, Bloom & Davis).
242
Jul 2026
Higher than 90% of years since 1997
Danger down from 100 a year ago
Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239
The year before past crises: median 106, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 303 before the Property crisis (2021)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020)
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07
News coverage of wars, terrorism and international tensions since 1900 (Caldara & Iacoviello; 100 = the 1985-2019 average).
137
Sep 2026
Higher than 88% of years since 1900
Danger up from 80 a year ago
Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161
The year before past crises: median 82.9, from 39.7 before the Bad-loan crisis (1998) to 332 before the Warlord-era debt default (1919)
Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 12 crises: Silver crisis (1935), War with Japan and civil war (1937), Great Leap Forward famine (1959), Cultural Revolution slump (1967), Inflation crisis of 1988-89, Overheating and devaluation (1993), Bad-loan crisis (1998), Global financial crisis (2008), Stock crash and yuan devaluation (2015), COVID-19 shock (2020), Property crisis (2021)
Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.
High values are the dangerous side. Shaded: past crises (hover for their names); dashed: median.Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)
Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09
Evergrande and other developers defaulted; home sales and prices fell for years.
The first quarterly contraction since records began.
Shanghai stocks fell about 40% in weeks; a surprise devaluation set off capital flight.
Exports collapsed and Shanghai stocks fell about two thirds; a huge credit stimulus followed.
After the Asian crisis the big state banks were recapitalized and their bad loans moved to asset management companies.
Inflation reached 24% and the yuan’s two rates were unified at a much weaker level.
Price reform set off panic buying and inflation near 19%.
Political turmoil cut output two years in a row.
Collectivization and a forced industrial drive led to a famine; output fell by about a quarter.
Invasion and civil war, with hyperinflation of the Nationalist currency from 1947.
US silver purchases drained China’s silver money; it left the silver standard for the fiat fabi.
With the country split between warlords, the Beijing government fell behind on its foreign and domestic loans (Reinhart & Rogoff's dating).
A bubble in mining and industrial shares burst; most of Shanghai's native banks (qianzhuang) failed and the silk magnate Hu Xueyan was ruined.
