Canada

Lower than 78% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 70 a year ago

Median 3.82% · usual range -2.78% to 9.49%

The year before past crises: median 3.92%, from -7.61% before the Post-war depression (1920) to 14.6% before the Home Bank failure (1923)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1931 (-15.4%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCCAQ 2021–2026-04

Lower than 54% of years since 1916

↓Danger down from 52 a year ago

Median 6.67% · usual range 2.09% to 11.2%

The year before past crises: median 6.04%, from 1.79% before the Great Depression (1929) to 11.3% before the Western bank failures (1985)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 9 crises: Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1916–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTCAM156S 2021–2026-08

Lower than 74% of years since 1917

↓Danger down from 73 a year ago

Median -0.11 pp · usual range -1.28 pp to +1.83 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.17 pp, from -1.47 pp before the Home Bank failure (1923) to +1.44 pp before the Post-war depression (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 9 crises: Home Bank failure (1923)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1930 (+6.52 pp), 1932 (+6.31 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1916–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTCAM156S 2021–2026-08

Higher than 80% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (61)

Median 20.8% of GDP · usual range 12.1% of GDP to 24.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 22.5% of GDP, from 14.5% of GDP before the Post-war depression (1920) to 32.5% of GDP before the Pre-war depression (1913)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 67% of years since 1872

↓Danger down from 71 a year ago

Median 3.54% · usual range -2.13% to 8.7%

The year before past crises: median 3.03%, from -10.5% before the Post-war depression (1920) to 11.5% before the Home Bank failure (1923)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Oil price slump (2015)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1921 (-14.7%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2021–2025

Lower than 88% of years since 1962

↑Danger up from 82 a year ago

Median 4.58% · usual range -1.69% to 10.8%

The year before past crises: median 1.69%, from 0.89% before the Early 1990s recession to 18.7% before the Western bank failures (1985)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1962–2025

Higher than 51% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 13 a year ago

Median 2.07% · usual range -1.72% to 8.17%

The year before past crises: median 3.28%, from -8.5% before the Home Bank failure (1923) to 10.2% before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 12 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1884 (-12.5%), 1917 (18.4%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CANCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Lower than 69% of years since 1935

↑Danger up from 14 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -1.74 pp to +1.63 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.68 pp, from -0.06 pp before the Oil price slump (2015) to +2.57 pp before the Early 1990s recession

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1934–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01CAM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 61% of years since 1934

↑Danger up from 11 a year ago

Median 3.23% · usual range 0.49% to 9.28%

The year before past crises: median 7.61%, from 0.91% before the Oil price slump (2015) to 12.8% before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1934–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01CAM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 58% of years since 1934

↑Danger up from 7 a year ago

Median +0.83 pp · usual range -3.03 pp to +4.63 pp

The year before past crises: median +2.32 pp, from -1.01 pp before the Oil price slump (2015) to +7.06 pp before the Early 1990s recession

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01CAM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CANCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 96% of years since 1872

Median 6.95% · usual range -0.54% to 14.4%

The year before past crises: median 7.85%, from -3.62% before the Home Bank failure (1923) to 17.5% before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1872–2020

Lower than 97% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 29 a year ago

Median +2.76 pp of GDP · usual range -8.27 pp of GDP to +13.2 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +6.9 pp of GDP, from -10.9 pp of GDP before the Post-war depression (1920) to +14.9 pp of GDP before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 11 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QCAPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 94% of years since 1956

→Danger about the same as a year ago (94)

Median 43.5% of GDP · usual range 11.9% of GDP to 73% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 48.4% of GDP, from 30.5% of GDP before the Western bank failures (1985) to 72.4% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1956–2020 · FRED QCAHAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 95% of years since 1879

↓Danger down from 9 a year ago

Median +0.44 pp of GDP · usual range -6.29 pp of GDP to +5.52 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +2.12 pp of GDP, from -6.88 pp of GDP before the Western bank failures (1985) to +4.75 pp of GDP before the Oil price slump (2015)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 11 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QCAPAM770A 2021–2025

Higher than 98% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (98)

Median 41.7% of GDP · usual range 20% of GDP to 81.1% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 52.4% of GDP, from 28.6% of GDP before the Long Depression (1873) to 103% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QCAPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 92% of years since 1961

→Danger about the same as a year ago (92)

Median 23.8% of GDP · usual range 17.8% of GDP to 34.6% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 27.1% of GDP, from 22.2% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 35.2% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1961–2020 · FRED QCANAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 50% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 55 a year ago

Median 5.73 % of assets · usual range 3.66 % of assets to 34.4 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 6.63 % of assets, from 2.39 % of assets before the Early 1980s recession (1981) to 40.7 % of assets before the Long Depression (1873)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2021–2025

Higher than 79% of years since 2005

↑Danger up from 60 a year ago

Median 0.52 % of loans · usual range 0.42 % of loans to 0.84 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 0.5 % of loans, from 0.43 % of loans before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0.52 % of loans before the Oil price slump (2015)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2005–2025

Higher than 74% of years since 1870

Median 91.1% · usual range 40.9% to 143%

The year before past crises: median 94.8%, from 69.3% before the Great Depression (1929) to 191% before the Long Depression (1873)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 68% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020

Higher than 91% of years since 1999

→Danger about the same as a year ago (91)

Median 12.8 % of income · usual range 10.8 % of income to 13.8 % of income

The year before past crises: median 12.9 % of income, from 12.7 % of income before the Oil price slump (2015) to 13.7 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 100% of years since 1999

→Danger about the same as a year ago (100)

Median 20.7 % of income · usual range 19.2 % of income to 24.5 % of income

The year before past crises: median 21.9 % of income, from 20.4 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 24.5 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 95% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (93)

Median 63.8% of GDP · usual range 29.2% of GDP to 103% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 64.1% of GDP, from 18.5% of GDP before the Pre-war depression (1913) to 86.8% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 61% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 66 a year ago

Median -0.94% of GDP · usual range -5.3% of GDP to 0.8% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.75% of GDP, from -8.79% of GDP before the Post-war depression (1920) to 0.93% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1943 (-19.3% of GDP), 1944 (-21.6% of GDP), 1945 (-21.6% of GDP), 1946 (-17.9% of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 64% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 86 a year ago

Median +1.15 pp of GDP · usual range -17.5 pp of GDP to +25.7 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +1.24 pp of GDP, from -17.5 pp of GDP before the Great Depression (1929) to +37.6 pp of GDP before the Post-war depression (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 11 crises: Panic of 1907, Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Higher than 62% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (61)

Median -1.32 pp · usual range -8.42 pp to +6.3 pp

The year before past crises: median -2.14 pp, from -9.14 pp before the Panic of 1907 to +3.17 pp before the Post-war depression (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1921 (+28.6 pp), 1931 (+29.9 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01CAM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CANCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCCAQ 2021–2025

Lower than 75% of years since 1990

Median 12.4 % of spending · usual range 6.08 % of spending to 23.6 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 7.71 % of spending, from 6.16 % of spending before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 11.9 % of spending before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1990–2023

Lower than 53% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 45 a year ago

Median 4.13% · usual range 2.9% to 8.97%

The year before past crises: median 4.64%, from 1.73% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 12.8% before the Western bank failures (1985)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 12 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1981 (15.2%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01CAM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 78% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 82 a year ago

Median -0.02 pp · usual range -0.6 pp to +0.5 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.01 pp, from -0.6 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +2.27 pp before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1980 (+2.27 pp), 1981 (+2.73 pp), 1983 (-2.46 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01CAM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 57% of years since 1934

↓Danger down from 66 a year ago

Median +1.65 pp · usual range +0.26 pp to +2.83 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.13 pp, from -2.13 pp before the Early 1990s recession to +1.69 pp before the Western bank failures (1985)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 63% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01CAM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED IR3TIB01CAM156N 2021–2025

Lower than 59% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 37 a year ago

Median +2.39 pp · usual range -1.75 pp to +6.9 pp

The year before past crises: median +1.54 pp, from -4.45 pp before the Long Depression (1873) to +13.8 pp before the Home Bank failure (1923)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01CAM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED CANCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1957

↓Danger down from 9 a year ago

Median 2.68% · usual range -11.2% to 18.8%

The year before past crises: median 10.5%, from -5.21% before the Western bank failures (1985) to 22.3% before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01CAM661N 1956–2026-08 · JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CANCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 98% of years since 1964

↑Danger up from 90 a year ago

Median 11.2% · usual range -6.33% to 34.8%

The year before past crises: median 16.6%, from 4.32% before the Western bank failures (1985) to 47.5% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01CAM661N 1956–2026-08 · JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CANCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Lower than 96% of years since 1956

↓Danger down from 20 a year ago

Median 11.9% · usual range 7.47% to 20.4%

The year before past crises: median 9.77%, from 7.49% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 28.2% before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01CAM661N 1956–2026-08

Higher than 83% of years since 1956

→Danger about the same as a year ago (17)

Median -5.86% · usual range -27.7% to 0%

The year before past crises: median 0%, from -20% before the Western bank failures (1985) to 0% before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession (1981), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED SPASTT01CAM661N 1956–2026-08 · JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CANCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1977

↑Danger up from 84 a year ago

Median 112% of GDP · usual range 77% of GDP to 156% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 110% of GDP, from 69.1% of GDP before the Western bank failures (1985) to 149% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 43% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1977–2025

Lower than 95% of years since 1922

↑Danger up from 77 a year ago

Median 2.51% · usual range -4% to 8.8%

The year before past crises: median 2.76%, from -4.4% before the Western bank failures (1985) to 15.7% before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Western bank failures (1985), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1921–2020 · FRED QCAR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Lower than 100% of years since 1929

↓Danger down from 6 a year ago

Median 16.5% · usual range 0.06% to 30.3%

The year before past crises: median 22.1%, from -2.11% before the Western bank failures (1985) to 39% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1921–2020 · FRED QCAR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Higher than 77% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 20 a year ago

Median -2.8% of GDP · usual range -8.09% of GDP to 1.52% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -2.12% of GDP, from -18.2% of GDP before the Pre-war depression (1913) to 0.69% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 12 crises: Western bank failures (1985), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2021–2025

Higher than 69% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 71 a year ago

Median 0.01% · usual range -4.44% to 6.07%

The year before past crises: median 0.07%, from -15.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 9.01% before the Oil price slump (2015)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1931 (20.8%), 1933 (-13.9%), 2003 (-18.2%), 2007 (-15.2%), 2008 (23.9%), 2009 (-14.5%), 2015 (19.3%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CCUSMA02CAM618N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 71% of years since 2002

↓Danger down from 46 a year ago

Median -2.93% · usual range -11.7% to 15.9%

The year before past crises: median -4.57%, from -10.5% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 21.9% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED RBCABIS 1994–2026-07

Higher than 63% of years since 1960

↓Danger down from 45 a year ago

Median 1.48 months of imports · usual range 0.89 months of imports to 2.9 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 1.38 months of imports, from 0.88 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 2.09 months of imports before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession (1981)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1960–2025

Higher than 80% of years since 1970

↓Danger down from 26 a year ago

Median 2.09% of GDP · usual range 0.72% of GDP to 3.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 2.47% of GDP, from 1.26% of GDP before the Early 1990s recession to 8.2% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2000 (9.17% of GDP)

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Higher than 98% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (98)

Median 0.7 of 4 · usual range 0.51 of 4 to 1.14 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.82 of 4, from 0.64 of 4 before the Home Bank failure (1923) to 1.31 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 11 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 77% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2022 (2.25 of 4), 2023 (2.25 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 65% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 96 a year ago

Median 1.26 of 4 · usual range 0.5 of 4 to 1.91 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.39 of 4, from 0.36 of 4 before the Panic of 1907 to 2.26 of 4 before the Post-war depression (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 11 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 97% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 0.45 of 4 · usual range 0.29 of 4 to 0.7 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.45 of 4, from 0.33 of 4 before the Panic of 1907 to 0.47 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 11 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2022 (1.59 of 4), 2023 (1.59 of 4), 2024 (1.59 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 84% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (84)

Median 0.57 of 4 · usual range 0.37 of 4 to 1.68 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.8 of 4, from 0.37 of 4 before the Long Depression (1873) to 1.68 of 4 before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 52% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 76 a year ago

Median 0.42 of 4 · usual range 0.09 of 4 to 1.68 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.43 of 4, from 0.09 of 4 before the Panic of 1907 to 1.68 of 4 before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 11 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Oil price slump (2015)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 84% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 94 a year ago

Median +0.5 points · usual range -1.3 points to +5.4 points

The year before past crises: median +0.8 points, from -1.9 points before the Post-war depression (1920) to +14.6 points before the Home Bank failure (1923)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1922 (+14.6 points), 1923 (+16.9 points), 1924 (+16.1 points), 1925 (+16.1 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 1953

→Danger about the same as a year ago (99)

Median 0.14 · usual range 0.02 to 0.27

The year before past crises: median 0.08, from 0.02 before the Western bank failures (1985) to 0.47 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUICAN 1953–2026-04

Lower than 65% of years since 1916

↓Danger down from 45 a year ago

Median 9.3% · usual range 4.16% to 16.1%

The year before past crises: median 8.83%, from -3.87% before the Home Bank failure (1923) to 17.7% before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTCAM156S 2021–2026-08 · FRED CANCPIALLMINMEI 2021–2024 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 2025–2025

Higher than 76% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (76)

Median 9.72% · usual range 6.7% to 13.7%

The year before past crises: median 10.8%, from 7.6% before the Early 1980s recession (1981) to 14.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Higher than 98% of years since 1850

Median 0.98 of 4 · usual range 0.98 of 4 to 1.08 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.03 of 4, from 0.98 of 4 before the Long Depression (1873) to 1.17 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 90% of years since 1870

Median 14.1% of GDP · usual range 5.87% of GDP to 22.1% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 14.2% of GDP, from 5.46% of GDP before the Panic of 1907 to 23.5% of GDP before the Western bank failures (1985)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF Public Finances in Modern History 2021–2024

Higher than 62% of years since 1900

Median 0.29 of 4 · usual range 0.18 of 4 to 0.67 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.29 of 4, from 0.17 of 4 before the Oil price slump (2015) to 0.67 of 4 before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 11 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015)

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 1900

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.04 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Panic of 1907 to 0.52 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 11 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 96% of years since 1850

↓Danger down from 7 a year ago

Median 6.6 of 100 · usual range 3.3 of 100 to 6.9 of 100

The year before past crises: median 5.15 of 100, from 2.2 of 100 before the Oil price slump (2015) to 6.9 of 100 before the Long Depression (1873)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 12 crises: Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 93% of years since 1855

↓Danger down from 97 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range 0 points to +0.5 points

The year before past crises: median +0.1 points, from -0.4 points before the Home Bank failure (1923) to +0.7 points before the Pre-war depression (1913)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1949 (+1.3 points), 1950 (+1.5 points), 1951 (+1.5 points), 1952 (+1.5 points), 1953 (+1.5 points), 1967 (+1.1 points), 1968 (+1.1 points), 2020 (-1.6 points), 2021 (-1.5 points), 2022 (-2.1 points), 2023 (-1.9 points), 2024 (-1.3 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 89% of years since 1855

↑Danger up from 60 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -0.9 points to +2.3 points

The year before past crises: median +0.05 points, from 0 points before the Long Depression (1873) to +5.8 points before the Home Bank failure (1923)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: Long Depression (1873), Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1900 (+2.3 points), 1901 (+2.3 points), 1902 (+2.3 points), 1903 (+2.3 points), 1904 (+2.3 points), 1914 (-2.8 points), 1915 (-5 points), 1916 (-5 points), 1917 (-5 points), 1918 (-5 points), 1919 (+3.6 points), 1920 (+5.8 points), 1921 (+5.8 points), 1922 (+5.8 points), 1923 (+5.8 points), 1930 (-2.8 points), 1931 (-2.8 points), 1932 (-2.8 points), 1933 (-2.8 points), 1934 (-2.8 points), 1939 (-2.2 points), 1940 (-2.2 points), 1941 (-3.4 points), 1942 (-3.4 points), 1943 (-3.4 points), 1946 (+5.6 points), 1947 (+5.6 points), 1948 (+5.6 points), 1949 (+5.6 points), 1950 (+6.5 points), 1960 (+2 points), 1961 (+2.1 points), 1962 (+3.1 points), 1963 (+3.1 points), 1964 (+3.1 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 87% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (13)

Median 1.04 of 4 · usual range 0.4 of 4 to 1.05 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.8 of 4, from 0.25 of 4 before the Western bank failures (1985) to 1.14 of 4 before the Post-war depression (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 12 crises: Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 55% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Early 1980s recession (1981) to 0 before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Lower than 53% of years since 1989

→Danger about the same as a year ago (47)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Early 1990s recession to 0 before the Early 1990s recession

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 98% of years since 1985

→Danger about the same as a year ago (98)

Median 126 · usual range 64.7 to 285

The year before past crises: median 110, from 64.2 before the Early 1990s recession to 333 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2025 (1,068)

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1985–2026-07

Higher than 91% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 79 a year ago

Median 0.11 % of articles · usual range 0.05 % of articles to 0.31 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.08 % of articles, from 0.05 % of articles before the Panic of 1907 to 0.22 % of articles before the Post-war depression (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 11 of 11 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Post-war depression (1920), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 30% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1918 (0.56 % of articles), 1940 (0.58 % of articles), 1943 (0.61 % of articles), 1944 (0.79 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Higher than 59% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 44 a year ago

Median 13.6% · usual range 10.9% to 16.1%

The year before past crises: median 11%, from 10.7% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.2% before the Oil price slump (2015)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 25% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 17.2 per 100 workers · usual range 12.9 per 100 workers to 26 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 17.8 per 100 workers, from 13.8 per 100 workers before the Early 1980s recession (1981) to 26.4 per 100 workers before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 2.9%, from -12.3% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 66.8% before the Early 1980s recession (1981)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 3.88%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 13.8% before the Western bank failures (1985)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 15.4, from 14.2 before the Oil price slump (2015) to 17.5 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 22% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median -5.89%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median -1.54%, from -3.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 3 crises: Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 106, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 3 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 80.9, from 37.2 before the Great Depression (1929) to 167 before the Post-war depression (1920)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 11 crises: Panic of 1907, Pre-war depression (1913), Home Bank failure (1923), Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1981), Western bank failures (1985), Early 1990s recession, Global financial crisis (2008), Oil price slump (2015), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 30% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09