Australia

Lower than 70% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 73 a year ago

Median 3.71% · usual range -2.02% to 7.62%

The year before past crises: median 2.94%, from -12.7% before the Bank crash of 1893 to 4.66% before the World War I (1914)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 10 crises: World War I (1914), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 66% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCAUQ 2021–2026-04

Lower than 58% of years since 1901

→Danger about the same as a year ago (40)

Median 5.08% · usual range 1.6% to 9.24%

The year before past crises: median 5.47%, from 2.3% before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 9.8% before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 8 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1901–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTAUM156S 2021–2026-07

Higher than 67% of years since 1902

↑Danger up from 57 a year ago

Median -0.1 pp · usual range -1.39 pp to +1.46 pp

The year before past crises: median -0.22 pp, from -0.88 pp before the Banking crisis and recession (1989) to +3.1 pp before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 8 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1931 (+6.6 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1901–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTAUM156S 2021–2026-07

Higher than 83% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 63 a year ago

Median 21.1% of GDP · usual range 11.4% of GDP to 25.3% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 20.7% of GDP, from 13.7% of GDP before the Bank crash of 1893 to 27.8% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Banking crisis and recession (1989), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 2021–2025

Lower than 75% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (76)

Median 2.94% · usual range -2.9% to 9.44%

The year before past crises: median 3.16%, from -14.4% before the Bank crash of 1893 to 6.24% before the World War I (1914)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 10 crises: World War I (1914), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1898 (23.5%), 1931 (-19.1%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 2021–2025

Lower than 84% of years since 1961

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 4.67% · usual range -0.31% to 10.5%

The year before past crises: median 3.92%, from -4.85% before the Early 1980s recession (1982) to 8.45% before the Banking crisis and recession (1989)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 54% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1961–2025

Higher than 68% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 5 a year ago

Median 2.36% · usual range -1.55% to 9.09%

The year before past crises: median 1.24%, from -8.11% before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931) to 9.69% before the Early 1980s recession (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 10 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · ABS consumer prices 2021–2026-04

Higher than 91% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 11 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -0.85 pp to +0.72 pp

The year before past crises: median 0 pp, from -0.66 pp before the Banking crisis and recession (1989) to +2.58 pp before the Early 1980s recession (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (+3.86 pp), 1981 (+2.58 pp), 1983 (-3.58 pp), 1985 (+4.44 pp), 1987 (-2.59 pp), 1989 (+4.66 pp), 1990 (-2.65 pp), 1991 (-4.19 pp), 1992 (-3.69 pp), 2009 (-3.39 pp), 2023 (+2.34 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01AUM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 60% of years since 1870

↓Danger down from 28 a year ago

Median 4.3% · usual range 1.79% to 8.35%

The year before past crises: median 4.76%, from 1.17% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.3% before the Early 1980s recession (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, Great Depression (1929)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1981 (13.3%), 1982 (14.6%), 1985 (15.4%), 1986 (15.4%), 1987 (12.8%), 1988 (12.1%), 1989 (16.8%), 1990 (14.2%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01AUM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 53% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 33 a year ago

Median +1.98 pp · usual range -4.24 pp to +7.02 pp

The year before past crises: median +4.17 pp, from -4.25 pp before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to +13.3 pp before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 10 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IR3TIB01AUM156N 2021–2026-08 · ABS consumer prices 2021–2025

Lower than 54% of years since 1871

→Danger about the same as a year ago (10)

Median 6.99% · usual range 0.96% to 14.4%

The year before past crises: median 3.75%, from -4.91% before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931) to 22.7% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 10 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 77% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1871–2020 · World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 2021–2025

Lower than 91% of years since 1875

→Danger about the same as a year ago (9)

Median +1.71 pp of GDP · usual range -6.72 pp of GDP to +19.2 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +7.19 pp of GDP, from -6.43 pp of GDP before the World War I (1914) to +39.8 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 10 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 74% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QAUPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 91% of years since 1952

↑Danger up from 88 a year ago

Median 20.3% of GDP · usual range 4.47% of GDP to 90.4% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 17.6% of GDP, from 8.48% of GDP before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 95.7% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1952–2020 · FRED QAUHAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 97% of years since 1879

→Danger about the same as a year ago (2)

Median +0.68 pp of GDP · usual range -9.05 pp of GDP to +6.29 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +2.34 pp of GDP, from -12 pp of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +13.7 pp of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 10 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2022 (-23.3 pp of GDP), 2023 (-24.7 pp of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QAUPAM770A 2021–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (94)

Median 31% of GDP · usual range 18.4% of GDP to 132% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 35.3% of GDP, from 22.3% of GDP before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 153% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QAUPAM770A 2021–2025-10

Higher than 82% of years since 1952

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 21.3% of GDP · usual range 12.1% of GDP to 55% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 19.5% of GDP, from 12.7% of GDP before the Early 1980s recession (1982) to 57.1% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1952–2020 · FRED QAUNAM770A 2021–2025-10

Lower than 64% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (63)

Median 7.16 % of assets · usual range 3.78 % of assets to 15.1 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 8.72 % of assets, from 3.09 % of assets before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 13.4 % of assets before the 1890s depression (1891)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Banking crisis and recession (1989), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 41% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2021–2025

Higher than 58% of years since 2006

↑Danger up from 53 a year ago

Median 0.98 % of loans · usual range 0.71 % of loans to 1.97 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 0.76 % of loans, from 0.56 % of loans before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0.96 % of loans before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2006–2025

Higher than 71% of years since 1870

Median 72.7% · usual range 45.5% to 117%

The year before past crises: median 82%, from 52.5% before the Great Depression (1929) to 120% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 10 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 76% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 2021–2021

Higher than 63% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 80 a year ago

Median 15.3 % of income · usual range 11.5 % of income to 16.9 % of income

The year before past crises: median 16.1 % of income, from 15 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 17.1 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 54% of years since 1999

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median 20.3 % of income · usual range 17.2 % of income to 21.7 % of income

The year before past crises: median 21.6 % of income, from 19.9 % of income before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 23.3 % of income before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: BIS debt service ratios 1999–2026-01

Higher than 75% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (73)

Median 37.2% of GDP · usual range 18.3% of GDP to 68.2% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 35.9% of GDP, from 9.69% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 70.3% of GDP before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Lower than 74% of years since 1902

↑Danger up from 63 a year ago

Median -1.51% of GDP · usual range -7.24% of GDP to 1% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -0.48% of GDP, from -4.56% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 2.78% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 20% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1941 (-21.1% of GDP), 1942 (-32.4% of GDP), 1943 (-24.8% of GDP), 1944 (-17.2% of GDP)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1902–2019 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 2020–2025

Lower than 68% of years since 1875

↓Danger down from 61 a year ago

Median +0.31 pp of GDP · usual range -11.8 pp of GDP to +17.9 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +3.28 pp of GDP, from -11.8 pp of GDP before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to +15 pp of GDP before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 10 crises: World War I (1914), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 2021–2025

Higher than 62% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 58 a year ago

Median -1.39 pp · usual range -6.95 pp to +6.3 pp

The year before past crises: median +1 pp, from -6.89 pp before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to +23.6 pp before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 10 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01AUM156N 2021–2026-08 · ABS consumer prices 2021–2025 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCAUQ 2021–2025

Lower than 75% of years since 1972

Median 5.66 % of spending · usual range 1.96 % of spending to 8.34 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 7.16 % of spending, from 1.55 % of spending before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 9.75 % of spending before the Banking crisis and recession (1989)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1972–2022

Higher than 58% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 40 a year ago

Median 4.63% · usual range 3.15% to 9.48%

The year before past crises: median 5.46%, from 1.49% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14% before the Early 1980s recession (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1982 (15.4%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01AUM156N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 92% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 76 a year ago

Median +0.02 pp · usual range -0.84 pp to +0.65 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.19 pp, from -1.19 pp before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +2.31 pp before the Early 1980s recession (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 52% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1991 (-2.49 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01AUM156N 2021–2026-08

Lower than 61% of years since 1870

↑Danger up from 56 a year ago

Median +0.68 pp · usual range -0.67 pp to +1.94 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.47 pp, from -0.75 pp before the 1890s depression (1891) to +1.72 pp before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 10 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 73% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01AUM156N 2021–2026-08 · FRED IR3TIB01AUM156N 2021–2025

Lower than 56% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 35 a year ago

Median +2.54 pp · usual range -3.21 pp to +7.19 pp

The year before past crises: median +4.22 pp, from -2.53 pp before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to +14 pp before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 10 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1951 (-16.3 pp)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED IRLTLT01AUM156N 2021–2026-08 · ABS consumer prices 2021–2025

Lower than 66% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 31 a year ago

Median 4.09% · usual range -14.7% to 21.1%

The year before past crises: median 3%, from -34.9% before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 16.4% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 10 crises: Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01AUM661N 2021–2026-08 · ABS consumer prices 2021–2025

Higher than 55% of years since 1878

↓Danger down from 62 a year ago

Median 14.2% · usual range -20.4% to 43.9%

The year before past crises: median 15.4%, from -27% before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 56.6% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 10 crises: Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 61% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01AUM661N 2021–2026-08 · ABS consumer prices 2021–2025

Lower than 79% of years since 1958

↓Danger down from 40 a year ago

Median 11.3% · usual range 6.24% to 19.9%

The year before past crises: median 15.6%, from 6.44% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 20.2% before the Early 1980s recession (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 5 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 72% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1987 (60.8%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01AUM661N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 53% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (47)

Median -3.33% · usual range -32.1% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -11.8%, from -44.7% before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 0% before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 10 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 51% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED SPASTT01AUM661N 2021–2026-08 · ABS consumer prices 2021–2025

Higher than 80% of years since 1979

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 87.4% of GDP · usual range 32% of GDP to 126% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 82.3% of GDP, from 30.7% of GDP before the Early 1980s recession (1982) to 152% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1979–2025

Higher than 76% of years since 1871

↑Danger up from 12 a year ago

Median 1.29% · usual range -6.05% to 10.9%

The year before past crises: median 3.82%, from -16.9% before the Bank crash of 1893 to 14.3% before the Banking crisis and recession (1989)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 10 crises: Great Depression (1929), Early 1980s recession (1982)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1950 (113%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QAUR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Higher than 61% of years since 1878

↑Danger up from 47 a year ago

Median 10.3% · usual range -6.65% to 27.2%

The year before past crises: median 10.2%, from -6.61% before the Bank crash of 1893 to 38.8% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 10 crises: Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Early 1980s recession (1982), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED QAUR628BIS 2021–2026-01

Higher than 75% of years since 1870

→Danger about the same as a year ago (25)

Median -3.32% of GDP · usual range -7.53% of GDP to 2.08% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -4.36% of GDP, from -16.9% of GDP before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931) to 0.71% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 10 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · IMF World Economic Outlook (BCA_NGDPD) 2021–2025

Lower than 92% of years since 1871

↓Danger down from 76 a year ago

Median 0.11% · usual range -6.97% to 10.3%

The year before past crises: median 0.06%, from -15.6% before the Banking crisis and recession (1989) to 21.6% before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 10 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1920 (22.3%), 1922 (-14.6%), 1930 (21.6%), 1932 (29.8%), 1933 (-17.3%), 1934 (-15.7%), 1940 (15.8%), 1949 (43.9%), 1973 (-14.3%), 1976 (15.7%), 1982 (15%), 1985 (21.6%), 1988 (-15.6%), 1997 (22%), 2000 (18%), 2003 (-24.5%), 2008 (27.3%), 2009 (-22.8%), 2013 (17.4%)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED CCUSMA02AUM618N 2021–2026-08

Higher than 58% of years since 2002

↑Danger up from 46 a year ago

Median 2.6% · usual range -7.7% to 21.4%

The year before past crises: median 3.97%, from -11.9% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 19.8% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED RBAUBIS 1994–2026-07

Lower than 72% of years since 1989

↓Danger down from 88 a year ago

Median 1.89 months of imports · usual range 1.34 months of imports to 2.89 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 1.45 months of imports, from 1.12 months of imports before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 1.78 months of imports before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1989–2025

Lower than 51% of years since 1970

↑Danger up from 35 a year ago

Median 2.12% of GDP · usual range 0.9% of GDP to 4.15% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 2.77% of GDP, from 0.21% of GDP before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 5.19% of GDP before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 5 crises: Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 31% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Higher than 71% of years since 1901

→Danger about the same as a year ago (71)

Median 0.86 of 4 · usual range 0.29 of 4 to 1.33 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.31 of 4, from 0.33 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929) to 1.35 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1901–2025

Higher than 88% of years since 1901

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 1.03 of 4 · usual range 0.6 of 4 to 1.83 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.99 of 4, from 0.79 of 4 before the World War I (1914) to 1.36 of 4 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1914 (2.29 of 4), 1915 (2.29 of 4), 1916 (2.29 of 4), 1917 (2.29 of 4), 1918 (2.29 of 4), 1939 (2.29 of 4), 2021 (2.17 of 4), 2022 (2.17 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1901–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 1901

↑Danger up from 50 a year ago

Median 0.72 of 4 · usual range 0.72 of 4 to 0.72 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.72 of 4, from 0.72 of 4 before the World War I (1914) to 0.72 of 4 before the World War I (1914)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1901–2025

Higher than 76% of years since 1850

↑Danger up from 66 a year ago

Median 0.14 of 4 · usual range 0.14 of 4 to 0.73 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.14 of 4, from 0.14 of 4 before the 1890s depression (1891) to 0.81 of 4 before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 38% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1901

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the World War I (1914) to 0 of 4 before the World War I (1914)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1901–2025

Higher than 55% of years since 1855

↑Danger up from 25 a year ago

Median +0.1 points · usual range -2.8 points to +5.02 points

The year before past crises: median +0.1 points, from -3.6 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +3 points before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 10 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 58% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1857 (+14.8 points), 1858 (+21.5 points), 1859 (+21.6 points), 1860 (+21.7 points), 1861 (+16.6 points), 1902 (+17.8 points), 1903 (+18.3 points), 1904 (+19.4 points), 1906 (+12 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 66% of years since 1952

↑Danger up from 28 a year ago

Median 0.13 · usual range 0.02 to 0.26

The year before past crises: median 0.12, from 0.02 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0.51 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 47% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUIAUS 1952–2026-04

Lower than 84% of years since 1975

↑Danger up from 69 a year ago

Median 2.25 · usual range -13.3 to 12.8

The year before past crises: median 3.59, from -1.17 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 16 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED CSCICP02AUM460S 1975–2026-08

Lower than 62% of years since 1901

→Danger about the same as a year ago (39)

Median 8.44% · usual range 4.14% to 16.2%

The year before past crises: median 6.92%, from 1.69% before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931) to 15.5% before the Early 1980s recession (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 64% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1870–2020 · FRED LRHUTTTTAUM156S 2021–2026-07 · ABS consumer prices 2021–2025

Higher than 62% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (62)

Median 10.1% · usual range 6.26% to 14.4%

The year before past crises: median 10.4%, from 5.27% before the Early 1980s recession (1982) to 14.8% before the Great Depression (1929)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 8 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Lower than 82% of years since 1850

Median 1.52 of 4 · usual range 0.56 of 4 to 1.64 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.28 of 4, from 0.56 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 1.64 of 4 before the World War I (1914)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 10 crises: Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 91% of years since 1902

Median 22.1% of GDP · usual range 6.5% of GDP to 29.4% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 21.6% of GDP, from 3.73% of GDP before the World War I (1914) to 29.5% of GDP before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: JST Macrohistory Database 1902–2019 · IMF Public Finances in Modern History 2020–2024

Higher than 70% of years since 1901

Median 0.09 of 4 · usual range 0.06 of 4 to 0.44 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.09 of 4, from 0.05 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0.49 of 4 before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1901–2025

Higher than 100% of years since 1901

Median 0.04 of 4 · usual range 0.03 of 4 to 0.17 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.04 of 4, from 0.03 of 4 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 0.16 of 4 before the Lang default and savings bank runs (1931)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: V-Dem 1901–2025

Lower than 99% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (1)

Median 4.2 of 100 · usual range 3.5 of 100 to 6.2 of 100

The year before past crises: median 4.2 of 100, from 3.3 of 100 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 6.2 of 100 before the 1890s depression (1891)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 10 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 78% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 0 points · usual range -0.1 points to +0.3 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -0.2 points before the Great Depression (1929) to +0.2 points before the Early 1980s recession (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 10 crises: World War I (1914), Early 1980s recession (1982), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1856 (+6.8 points), 1857 (+6.8 points), 1858 (+6.8 points), 1859 (+6.8 points), 1860 (+6.8 points), 1906 (+0.5 points), 1907 (+0.5 points), 1916 (-0.6 points), 1917 (-0.6 points), 1921 (+0.6 points), 1922 (+0.6 points), 1950 (+1.5 points), 1951 (+1.3 points), 1952 (+1.2 points), 1953 (+1.2 points), 1954 (+1.2 points), 2013 (-0.5 points), 2014 (-0.5 points), 2015 (-0.6 points), 2016 (-0.4 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 85% of years since 1855

↑Danger up from 6 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -1.8 points to +2.9 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -6.1 points before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to +2.9 points before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1901 (+3.2 points), 1902 (+3.2 points), 1903 (+3.2 points), 1904 (+3.2 points), 1905 (+3.2 points), 1914 (-4 points), 1915 (-5.1 points), 1916 (-6.1 points), 1917 (-6.1 points), 1918 (-4.6 points), 1919 (+1.7 points), 1920 (+4.8 points), 1921 (+5.8 points), 1922 (+5.8 points), 1923 (+4.3 points), 1924 (+2 points), 1939 (-4 points), 1940 (-6.2 points), 1941 (-6.2 points), 1942 (-3.4 points), 1943 (-3.4 points), 1944 (+1.5 points), 1945 (+3.7 points), 1946 (+8.3 points), 1947 (+5.5 points), 1948 (+5.5 points), 1949 (+4.6 points), 1950 (+3.7 points), 1956 (+1.4 points), 1957 (+1.4 points), 1958 (+1.4 points), 1959 (+1.4 points), 1960 (+1.2 points), 1967 (+1.2 points), 1968 (+1.2 points), 1969 (+1.2 points), 1970 (+2.8 points), 1971 (+2.8 points), 1972 (+1.9 points), 1973 (+2.9 points), 1974 (+2.9 points), 1975 (+1.3 points), 2013 (-1.8 points), 2014 (-1.9 points), 2015 (-1.5 points), 2016 (-1.2 points), 2017 (-2.1 points), 2018 (-2.4 points), 2019 (-6.1 points), 2020 (-3.4 points), 2021 (-5.4 points), 2022 (-2.5 points), 2024 (+3.6 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 96% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (96)

Median 0.24 of 4 · usual range 0.21 of 4 to 0.39 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.25 of 4, from 0.21 of 4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0.67 of 4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 10 crises: 1890s depression (1891), Bank crash of 1893, World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1950 (0.98 of 4), 1951 (0.98 of 4), 1990 (0.12 of 4), 1991 (0.12 of 4), 1992 (0.12 of 4), 1993 (0.12 of 4), 1994 (0.12 of 4), 1995 (0.12 of 4), 1996 (0.12 of 4), 2010 (0.11 of 4), 2011 (0.11 of 4), 2012 (0.11 of 4), 2015 (0.56 of 4), 2016 (0.56 of 4), 2019 (0.67 of 4)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 0 before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Lower than 51% of years since 1989

→Danger about the same as a year ago (49)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 0 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Higher than 97% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 108 · usual range 56.3 to 168

The year before past crises: median 91, from 53.4 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 129 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker, Bloom & Davis) 1997–2026-07

Lower than 83% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 84 a year ago

Median 0.06 % of articles · usual range 0.02 % of articles to 0.19 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.03 % of articles, from 0.01 % of articles before the World War I (1914) to 0.11 % of articles before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Banking crisis and recession (1989)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 27% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1941 (0.44 % of articles), 1942 (1.41 % of articles), 1943 (0.98 % of articles), 1945 (0.48 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 84% of years since 1991

↑Danger up from 13 a year ago

Median 12.1% · usual range 9.38% to 16.5%

The year before past crises: median 10.4%, from 9.36% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 11.5% before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 17.2 per 100 workers · usual range 13.6 per 100 workers to 24.1 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 16.1 per 100 workers, from 13.4 per 100 workers before the Oil shock and stagflation (1974) to 24.4 per 100 workers before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median -1.9%, from -16.7% before the Banking crisis and recession (1989) to 9.47% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 5 crises: Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 2.74%, from -4.72% before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 11% before the Early 1980s recession (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Before this country's past crises (2), it read higher than in other years 39% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 16.4, from 15.4 before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 17.5 before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median 2.4%, from -8.38% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 13.2% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008)

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 5.44%, from -3.06% before the COVID-19 recession (2020) to 14% before the Global financial crisis (2008)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 153, from 70.1 before the Global financial crisis (2008) to 235 before the COVID-19 recession (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 71.4, from 37.2 before the Great Depression (1929) to 102 before the Early 1980s recession (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: World War I (1914), Great Depression (1929), Lang default and savings bank runs (1931), Oil shock and stagflation (1974), Early 1980s recession (1982), Banking crisis and recession (1989), Global financial crisis (2008), COVID-19 recession (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 25% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09