Argentina

Lower than 62% of years since 1876

↑Danger up from 38 a year ago

Median 4.3% · usual range -4.16% to 11.1%

The year before past crises: median 2.82%, from -5.74% before the Debt crisis (1982) to 7.16% before the Banking crisis of 1980-82

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 13 crises: Baring crisis (1890), Great Depression (1929), Rodrigazo (1975), Banking crisis of 1980-82, Tequila contagion (1995), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (10), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: Maddison Project 1850–2022 · FRED NGDPRSAXDCARQ 2023–2026-01

Lower than 58% of years since 1980

↑Danger up from 36 a year ago

Median 7.95% · usual range 5.5% to 17.2%

The year before past crises: median 7.75%, from 5% before the Debt crisis (1982) to 17.1% before the Default and end of convertibility (2001)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 8 crises: Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Holdout default (2014), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2025

Higher than 56% of years since 1981

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median 0 pp · usual range -2 pp to +2 pp

The year before past crises: median +0.55 pp, from -2 pp before the Inflation surge (2023) to +2 pp before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 8 crises: Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 70% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2025

Lower than 84% of years since 1960

↓Danger down from 74 a year ago

Median 19.1% of GDP · usual range 15.6% of GDP to 24.9% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 18.4% of GDP, from 14.2% of GDP before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020) to 25.9% of GDP before the Banking crisis of 1980-82

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 10 crises: Rodrigazo (1975), Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS) 1960–2025

Higher than 70% of years since 1994

↓Danger down from 77 a year ago

Median 3.65% · usual range -5.71% to 9.47%

The year before past crises: median 3.9%, from -6.13% before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020) to 9.47% before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.CON.PRVT.KD) 1993–2025

Higher than 64% of years since 1961

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 3.95% · usual range -8.86% to 18.4%

The year before past crises: median 3.63%, from -3.52% before the Holdout default (2014) to 18.7% before the Hyperinflation (1989)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 10 crises: Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG) 1961–2025

Higher than 78% of years since 1998

Median 9.2% · usual range -1% to 12.2%

The year before past crises: median 4.85%, from -0.9% before the Default and end of convertibility (2001) to 10.6% before the Holdout default (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Holdout default (2014)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 1998–2013

Lower than 83% of years since 2011

↑Danger up from 10 a year ago

Median +3.53 pp · usual range -26.8 pp to +20.7 pp

The year before past crises: median +9.97 pp, from -4.65 pp before the Peso crisis (2018) to +18.7 pp before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FR.INR.LEND) 2010–2025

Higher than 66% of years since 2010

↓Danger down from 69 a year ago

Median 30.3% · usual range 14.1% to 64.5%

The year before past crises: median 39.5%, from 17.2% before the Holdout default (2014) to 67.3% before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 4 crises: Peso crisis (2018)

Sources: World Bank (FR.INR.LEND) 2010–2025

Higher than 88% of years since 2010

Median +4.17 pp · usual range +1.26 pp to +5.87 pp

The year before past crises: median +6.55 pp, from +6.55 pp before the Holdout default (2014) to +6.55 pp before the Holdout default (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 1 crises: Holdout default (2014)

Sources: World Bank (FR.INR.LEND) 2010–2025 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 1998–2013

Higher than 55% of years since 1961

↓Danger down from 52 a year ago

Median 39.5% · usual range 9.26% to 303%

The year before past crises: median 42.3%, from 1.53% before the Default and end of convertibility (2001) to 443% before the Hyperinflation (1989)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 10 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1984 (655%), 1989 (2,235%), 1990 (1,113%)

Sources: World Bank (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG) 1961–2025

Lower than 64% of years since 1965

↑Danger up from 24 a year ago

Median +1.33 pp of GDP · usual range -9.66 pp of GDP to +7.46 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +1.98 pp of GDP, from -19.4 pp of GDP before the Tequila contagion (1995) to +20 pp of GDP before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 10 crises: Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 53% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2025-10

Higher than 72% of years since 1994

↑Danger up from 41 a year ago

Median 4.79% of GDP · usual range 3.52% of GDP to 6.51% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 5.81% of GDP, from 3.93% of GDP before the Tequila contagion (1995) to 7.2% of GDP before the Default and end of convertibility (2001)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Tequila contagion (1995), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED QARHAM770A 1994–2025-10

Higher than 77% of years since 1969

Median +0.54 pp of GDP · usual range -6.87 pp of GDP to +3.61 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +2.47 pp of GDP, from -4.11 pp of GDP before the Hyperinflation (1989) to +8.77 pp of GDP before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 8 crises: Rodrigazo (1975), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Peso crisis (2018)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 66% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2025

Higher than 72% of years since 1960

↑Danger up from 48 a year ago

Median 15.7% of GDP · usual range 11.2% of GDP to 24.6% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 19.7% of GDP, from 12.9% of GDP before the Inflation surge (2023) to 33.6% of GDP before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 10 crises: Rodrigazo (1975), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (7), it read higher than in other years 73% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS) 1960–2025-10

Higher than 69% of years since 1994

↑Danger up from 28 a year ago

Median 21.5% of GDP · usual range 15.6% of GDP to 28.7% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 19.2% of GDP, from 15.8% of GDP before the Peso crisis (2018) to 23.1% of GDP before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 6 crises: Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 100% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 2002 (73.5% of GDP)

Sources: FRED QARNAM770A 1994–2025-10

Higher than 93% of years since 2005

↑Danger up from 2 a year ago

Median 9.44 % of assets · usual range 7.25 % of assets to 18.3 % of assets

The year before past crises: median 10.2 % of assets, from 9.73 % of assets before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020) to 14.7 % of assets before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 4 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS) 2005–2025

Higher than 93% of years since 2005

↑Danger up from 17 a year ago

Median 2.73 % of loans · usual range 1.54 % of loans to 5.18 % of loans

The year before past crises: median 2.41 % of loans, from 1.53 % of loans before the Holdout default (2014) to 5.7 % of loans before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 4 crises: Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Inflation surge (2023)

Sources: World Bank (FB.AST.NPER.ZS) 2005–2025

Lower than 80% of years since 1960

Median 92.3% · usual range 64.2% to 150%

The year before past crises: median 92.1%, from 70.4% before the Peso crisis (2018) to 154% before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 8 crises: Peso crisis (2018)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (GFDD.SI.04) 1960–2017

Higher than 66% of years since 1992

↓Danger down from 78 a year ago

Median 53.5% of GDP · usual range 31% of GDP to 114% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 50.3% of GDP, from 28.4% of GDP before the Tequila contagion (1995) to 89.8% of GDP before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 83% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1992–2025

Higher than 74% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 17 a year ago

Median -2.7% of GDP · usual range -5.88% of GDP to 1.36% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -3.6% of GDP, from -6.7% of GDP before the Peso crisis (2018) to -1.2% of GDP before the Tequila contagion (1995)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 6 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 17% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXCNL_NGDP) 1993–2025

Lower than 81% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 33 a year ago

Median +10.5 pp of GDP · usual range -41.9 pp of GDP to +70.4 pp of GDP

The year before past crises: median +16.6 pp of GDP, from -10.3 pp of GDP before the Holdout default (2014) to +45.1 pp of GDP before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP) 1992–2025

Lower than 94% of years since 1990

Median 11.1 % of spending · usual range 7.43 % of spending to 24.7 % of spending

The year before past crises: median 9.42 % of spending, from 7.76 % of spending before the Inflation surge (2023) to 20.1 % of spending before the Default and end of convertibility (2001)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 5 crises with data

Sources: World Bank (GC.XPN.INTP.ZS) 1990–2023

Lower than 75% of years since 1998

↑Danger up from 13 a year ago

Median 4.43% · usual range -26.9% to 44.4%

The year before past crises: median 24.4%, from 1.68% before the Default and end of convertibility (2001) to 47.1% before the Holdout default (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014)

Sources: yahoo:^MERV 1997–2026-10 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 1998–2013

Higher than 100% of years since 2005

Median 45.9% · usual range 5.69% to 76.3%

The year before past crises: median 37%, from 37% before the Holdout default (2014) to 37% before the Holdout default (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 1 crises: Holdout default (2014)

Sources: yahoo:^MERV 1997–2016-12 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 1998–2013

Lower than 60% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 97 a year ago

Median 32.8% · usual range 23.7% to 64.3%

The year before past crises: median 36.1%, from 18.8% before the Peso crisis (2018) to 73.2% before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 5 crises: Default and end of convertibility (2001), Peso crisis (2018)

Sources: yahoo:^MERV 1997–2026-10

Lower than 53% of years since 1997

↑Danger up from 24 a year ago

Median -6.89% · usual range -40.6% to 0%

The year before past crises: median -16.3%, from -32.6% before the Default and end of convertibility (2001) to 0% before the Holdout default (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 2 crises: Holdout default (2014)

Sources: yahoo:^MERV 1997–2026-10 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 1998–2013

Lower than 62% of years since 1977

Median 9.53% of GDP · usual range 1.48% of GDP to 20% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 8.8% of GDP, from 1.77% of GDP before the Debt crisis (1982) to 16.9% of GDP before the Peso crisis (2018)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 9 crises: Banking crisis of 1980-82, Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 24% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS) 1977–2022

Higher than 53% of years since 1976

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median -1.32% of GDP · usual range -4.32% of GDP to 2.23% of GDP

The year before past crises: median -2.38% of GDP, from -5.99% of GDP before the Debt crisis (1982) to -0.63% of GDP before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 9 crises: Banking crisis of 1980-82, Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 72% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS) 1976–2025

Lower than 64% of years since 1964

↓Danger down from 60 a year ago

Median 20.6% · usual range 0% to 308%

The year before past crises: median 28.9%, from 0% before the Rodrigazo (1975) to 308% before the Hyperinflation (1989)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 10 crises: Rodrigazo (1975), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 65% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1975 (632%), 1982 (489%), 1984 (542%), 1985 (790%), 1989 (4,737%), 1990 (1,052%)

Sources: World Bank (PA.NUS.FCRF) 1963–2026-09

Higher than 100% of years since 2002

↑Danger up from 96 a year ago

Median -31.1% · usual range -45% to -0.41%

The year before past crises: median -19.1%, from -36.1% before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020) to -4.52% before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 4 crises: Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Sources: FRED RBARBIS 1994–2026-07

Lower than 79% of years since 1976

↓Danger down from 85 a year ago

Median 5.6 months of imports · usual range 3.45 months of imports to 7.37 months of imports

The year before past crises: median 5.6 months of imports, from 3.46 months of imports before the Holdout default (2014) to 13.3 months of imports before the Banking crisis of 1980-82

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 7 of 9 crises: Banking crisis of 1980-82, Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (4), it read higher than in other years 71% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (FI.RES.TOTL.MO) 1976–2025

Lower than 70% of years since 1970

↑Danger up from 35 a year ago

Median 1.3% of GDP · usual range 0.22% of GDP to 2.68% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 1.45% of GDP, from 0.02% of GDP before the Rodrigazo (1975) to 3.67% of GDP before the Default and end of convertibility (2001)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 10 crises: Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 56% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS) 1970–2025

Higher than 70% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (70)

Median 3.1 of 4 · usual range 2.19 of 4 to 3.76 of 4

The year before past crises: median 3.67 of 4, from 1.99 of 4 before the Hyperinflation (1989) to 3.76 of 4 before the Rodrigazo (1975)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 12 crises: War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 34% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Higher than 98% of years since 1900

→Danger about the same as a year ago (97)

Median 2.64 of 4 · usual range 1.89 of 4 to 3.56 of 4

The year before past crises: median 3.03 of 4, from 0.71 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1980-82 to 3.51 of 4 before the Holdout default (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Rodrigazo (1975), Banking crisis of 1980-82, Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 40% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 100% of years since 1900

↓Danger down from 31 a year ago

Median 2.33 of 4 · usual range 0.87 of 4 to 3.63 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.32 of 4, from 0.83 of 4 before the Hyperinflation (1989) to 3.7 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1980-82

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 12 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 36% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1900–2025

Lower than 68% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (32)

Median 0.85 of 4 · usual range 0.28 of 4 to 1.89 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.77 of 4, from 0.11 of 4 before the Tequila contagion (1995) to 1.98 of 4 before the Rodrigazo (1975)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 13 crises: Great Depression (1929), Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 48% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 50% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (50)

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Baring crisis (1890) to 0 of 4 before the Baring crisis (1890)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 13 of 13 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Rodrigazo (1975), Banking crisis of 1980-82, Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 50% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 91% of years since 1855

↑Danger up from 87 a year ago

Median +0.3 points · usual range -9.6 points to +8.7 points

The year before past crises: median +2.3 points, from -27.5 points before the Banking crisis of 1980-82 to +46.6 points before the Hyperinflation (1989)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Rodrigazo (1975), Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1931 (-25.8 points), 1961 (+25.7 points), 1969 (-33.9 points), 1970 (-33.5 points), 1978 (-23 points), 1979 (-27.5 points), 1980 (-23.9 points), 1984 (+62.7 points), 1985 (+62.3 points), 1986 (+62.1 points), 1987 (+62.1 points), 1988 (+46.6 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 96% of years since 1952

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 0.16 · usual range 0.04 to 0.4

The year before past crises: median 0.18, from 0.05 before the Debt crisis (1982) to 0.41 before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 10 crises: Rodrigazo (1975), Banking crisis of 1980-82, Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 44% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED WUIARG 1952–2026-04

Higher than 53% of years since 1998

Median 17.5% · usual range 15.4% to 26%

The year before past crises: median 17%, from 16.2% before the Default and end of convertibility (2001) to 17.7% before the Holdout default (2014)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 2 of 2 crises: Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014)

Off the chart: 2002 (48.4%), 2003 (30.7%)

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (LUR) 1980–2025 · IMF World Economic Outlook (PCPIPCH) 1998–2013

Higher than 68% of years since 1850

→Danger about the same as a year ago (68)

Median 14.9% · usual range 12.6% to 20.7%

The year before past crises: median 14.8%, from 11.2% before the Holdout default (2014) to 14.9% before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 8 crises: Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (6), it read higher than in other years 62% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1850–2024

Higher than 63% of years since 1850

Median 0.58 of 4 · usual range 0.32 of 4 to 1.6 of 4

The year before past crises: median 1.18 of 4, from 0.32 of 4 before the Baring crisis (1890) to 1.66 of 4 before the Rodrigazo (1975)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 13 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 90% of years since 1864

Median 10.6% of GDP · usual range 6.72% of GDP to 30.8% of GDP

The year before past crises: median 14.5% of GDP, from 7.47% of GDP before the War crisis of 1914 to 41.1% of GDP before the Peso crisis (2018)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 9 of 13 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Rodrigazo (1975), Banking crisis of 1980-82, Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001)

Off the chart: 2012 (36.8% of GDP), 2013 (37.6% of GDP), 2014 (38.9% of GDP), 2015 (41.4% of GDP), 2016 (41.5% of GDP), 2017 (41.1% of GDP), 2018 (39% of GDP), 2019 (38.1% of GDP), 2020 (42.5% of GDP), 2021 (37.9% of GDP), 2022 (37.6% of GDP), 2023 (37.6% of GDP)

Sources: IMF Public Finances in Modern History 1864–2024

Higher than 58% of years since 1850

Median 0.12 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.48 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.31 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Great Depression (1929) to 0.62 of 4 before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 13 crises: Great Depression (1929), Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1850

Median 0 of 4 · usual range 0 of 4 to 0.09 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0 of 4, from 0 of 4 before the Baring crisis (1890) to 0.66 of 4 before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 13 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Banking crisis of 1980-82, Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 67% of years since 1850

↑Danger up from 62 a year ago

Median 30.9 of 100 · usual range 24.4 of 100 to 55.1 of 100

The year before past crises: median 42.3 of 100, from 22.1 of 100 before the Great Depression (1929) to 61.1 of 100 before the Tequila contagion (1995)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 6 of 13 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Hyperinflation (1989), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 57% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 77% of years since 1855

↑Danger up from 73 a year ago

Median 0 points · usual range -19.5 points to +15.1 points

The year before past crises: median +0.1 points, from -21.8 points before the Banking crisis of 1980-82 to +31.6 points before the Hyperinflation (1989)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 13 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Rodrigazo (1975), Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 45% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1959 (+39.2 points), 1960 (+41.9 points), 1967 (-36.9 points), 1968 (-48.4 points), 1969 (-54.3 points), 1970 (-49.1 points), 1983 (+37.6 points), 1984 (+69.2 points), 1985 (+68.6 points), 1986 (+68.6 points), 1987 (+68.6 points), 1990 (-37.6 points), 1991 (-34.2 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 87% of years since 1855

→Danger about the same as a year ago (85)

Median 0 points · usual range -24 points to +26.7 points

The year before past crises: median 0 points, from -63.4 points before the Banking crisis of 1980-82 to +58.5 points before the Hyperinflation (1989)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 13 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Rodrigazo (1975), Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 42% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1931 (-51.9 points), 1932 (-46.8 points), 1936 (+29.6 points), 1943 (-29.5 points), 1944 (-37.3 points), 1945 (-39.2 points), 1946 (-32.4 points), 1947 (-31.6 points), 1958 (+45.9 points), 1959 (+58.4 points), 1960 (+52 points), 1961 (+37.5 points), 1967 (-43.1 points), 1968 (-49.7 points), 1969 (-50.2 points), 1970 (-49.1 points), 1974 (+37.5 points), 1976 (-29.4 points), 1977 (-43.8 points), 1978 (-52.7 points), 1979 (-63.4 points), 1980 (-56 points), 1983 (+32.8 points), 1984 (+91.3 points), 1985 (+91.3 points), 1986 (+91.3 points), 1987 (+90.6 points), 1988 (+58.5 points)

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Higher than 63% of years since 1850

↑Danger up from 41 a year ago

Median 1.25 of 4 · usual range 0.18 of 4 to 2.78 of 4

The year before past crises: median 0.82 of 4, from 0.18 of 4 before the Hyperinflation (1989) to 3.71 of 4 before the Banking crisis of 1980-82

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 13 crises: Baring crisis (1890), War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (11), it read higher than in other years 37% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1850–2025

Lower than 54% of years since 1950

→Danger about the same as a year ago (46)

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 0

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Rodrigazo (1975) to 0 before the Rodrigazo (1975)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 10 crises: Rodrigazo (1975), Banking crisis of 1980-82, Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 49% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: V-Dem 1950–2024

Lower than 55% of years since 1989

↓Danger down from 93 a year ago

Median 0 · usual range 0 to 7.8

The year before past crises: median 0, from 0 before the Default and end of convertibility (2001) to 138 before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 93% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Inequality Database via Our World in Data 1989–2026

Lower than 70% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 0 a year ago

Median 0.04 % of articles · usual range 0.02 % of articles to 0.13 % of articles

The year before past crises: median 0.04 % of articles, from 0.01 % of articles before the Peso crisis (2018) to 0.09 % of articles before the Rodrigazo (1975)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 12 crises: Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 35% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1982 (0.66 % of articles)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09

Lower than 76% of years since 1991

↓Danger down from 27 a year ago

Median 22.8% · usual range 18.5% to 35.4%

The year before past crises: median 24.3%, from 19% before the Inflation surge (2023) to 32.4% before the Default and end of convertibility (2001)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 1 of 6 crises: Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 67% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: World Bank (SL.UEM.1524.ZS) 1991–2025

Higher than 99% of years since 1960

Median 14.6 per 100 workers · usual range 9.75 per 100 workers to 18 per 100 workers

The year before past crises: median 15.2 per 100 workers, from 11.2 per 100 workers before the Rodrigazo (1975) to 18.5 per 100 workers before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 10 of 10 crises: Rodrigazo (1975), Banking crisis of 1980-82, Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Sources: World Bank (SP.POP.DPND.OL) 1960–2025

Higher than 95% of years since 1947

↑Danger up from 65 a year ago

Median 0.57% · usual range -14.5% to 36.5%

The year before past crises: median 11%, from -16.7% before the Hyperinflation (1989) to 168% before the Rodrigazo (1975)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 8 of 10 crises: Banking crisis of 1980-82, Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (8), it read higher than in other years 59% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1974 (168%)

Sources: FRED WTISPLC 1946–2026-09

Lower than 77% of years since 1974

→Danger about the same as a year ago (23)

Median 2.79% · usual range -4.52% to 11%

The year before past crises: median 2.84%, from -0.28% before the Peso crisis (2018) to 11% before the Debt crisis (1982)

Today is less extreme than the year before every one of the 10 crises with data

Before this country's past crises (5), it read higher than in other years 60% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED TWEXBMTH 1973–2019 · FRED DTWEXBGS 2020–2026-09

Lower than 67% of years since 1990

→Danger about the same as a year ago (33)

Median 17.6 · usual range 12.8 to 26.6

The year before past crises: median 14.8, from 11.1 before the Peso crisis (2018) to 25.6 before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 6 crises: Tequila contagion (1995), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 21% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED VIXCLS 1990–2026-09

Higher than 70% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 9 a year ago

Median 1.46% · usual range -11.8% to 25.8%

The year before past crises: median 8.73%, from -8.38% before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020) to 33.7% before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 3 of 6 crises: Tequila contagion (1995), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 17% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PALLFNFINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 64% of years since 1993

↑Danger up from 27 a year ago

Median 1.47% · usual range -8.32% to 14.7%

The year before past crises: median 1.57%, from -3.06% before the Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020) to 14.8% before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 5 of 6 crises: Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Before this country's past crises (3), it read higher than in other years 100% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Sources: FRED PFOODINDEXM 1992–2026-07

Higher than 90% of years since 1997

↓Danger down from 100 a year ago

Median 121 · usual range 71.4 to 239

The year before past crises: median 171, from 74.9 before the Default and end of convertibility (2001) to 254 before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 4 of 5 crises: Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020)

Sources: FRED GEPUCURRENT 1997–2026-07

Higher than 88% of years since 1900

↑Danger up from 80 a year ago

Median 86.3 · usual range 45.1 to 161

The year before past crises: median 71.7, from 37.2 before the Great Depression (1929) to 113 before the Inflation surge (2023)

Today is at least as extreme as the year before 12 of 12 crises: War crisis of 1914, Great Depression (1929), Rodrigazo (1975), Banking crisis of 1980-82, Debt crisis (1982), Hyperinflation (1989), Tequila contagion (1995), Default and end of convertibility (2001), Holdout default (2014), Peso crisis (2018), Ninth default and COVID-19 (2020), Inflation surge (2023)

Before this country's past crises (9), it read higher than in other years 19% of the time; 50% is what chance would give.

Off the chart: 1915 (270), 1916 (260), 1917 (297), 1918 (332), 1942 (306), 1943 (344), 1944 (377)

Sources: Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara & Iacoviello) 1900–2026-09